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What makes you so sure the growth rates in the West and South will sustain in the long-term future? Will the metros not, at some point, peak in population growth, just as many cities in California have already? In my prediction, Texas, Utah, Colorado, Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, etc. will not sustain these growth rates forever.
If I *had* to make a prediction, I would predict that within a few decades, things will start trending back in favor of the Northeast and Midwest. These two regions are best positioned to endure the effects of climate change, and have the urban bones and infrastructure to withstand future population growth and urban revivalism. As extreme hurricanes and wildfires trend upwards in these regions, how many people will continue to find these climates favorable? Winter is not that bad. And unlike most of the West and South where new construction is the only option, the bones are already present in the Northeast and Midwest, and the pre-WWII bones are more sustainable on a few different fronts.
While I agree that competition with NYC's unmatched strength in various industries has historically slowed Philadelphia's growth, I see no reason that should remain so in the future. Firstly, net migration between Philadelphia and NYC has favored Philadelphia in recent years: https://centercityphila.org/news/mor...hia-job-growth
Secondly, *if* our nation takes improving our mass transit seriously, a bullet train across the Northeast Corridor could make commutes to-and-from both NYC-Philadelphia and Philadelphia-DC completely plausible, especially for hybrid workers. A bullet train could effectively change what is a ~80 minute train ride between NYC and Philadelphia to about 30 mins.
As our nation shifts from the usual 9-to-5 office set up, to more remote and hybrid style work, it is completely possible New Yorkers will increasingly eye Philadelphia as a more manageable and affordable place to live, without giving up all of the urban amenities they enjoy in New York. Anecdotally, every New Yorker with whom I am friends, and I have plenty, really enjoy visiting Philadelphia, and a few have mentioned interest in moving here should career opportunities present themselves.
And, on the topic of "coolness," the only people who would not find something "cool" about Philadelphia are either a) totally ignorant about the city, granted we could definitely step up our visibility game, considering we are among the top 3 most urban cities in the US, or b) the kind of people who do not find urbanity, distinct local culture, ethnic enclaves, thriving restaurant and nightlife scenes, block parties, public transit, etc. cool.
Are you sure of that? If we're talking the coastal cities of the Northeast I don't know if they'll fare any better in the coming decades either. I mean Hurricane Ida showed how unprepared those particular cities were against a natural disaster. Also if those cities continue to get more expensive I can't see people flocking to those areas in mass.
Now I can see the state benefiting more in the coming decades than Philly just because it's less likely to be impacted by climate change and cost of living. I do see a region like New England doing much better with climate change than the rest of the NE though.
I also see states surrounding the great lakes doing better than most along with the Pacific Northwest and Northern great plains region faring better in the coming decades.
Are you sure of that? If we're talking the coastal cities of the Northeast I don't know if they'll fare any better in the coming decades either. I mean Hurricane Ida showed how unprepared those particular cities were against a natural disaster. Also if those cities continue to get more expensive I can't see people flocking to those areas in mass.
Now I can see the state benefiting more in the coming decades than Philly just because it's less likely to be impacted by climate change and cost of living. I do see a region like New England doing much better with climate change than the rest of the NE though.
I also see states surrounding the great lakes doing better than most along with the Pacific Northwest and Northern great plains region faring better in the coming decades.
I most certainly am not sure, which is why I said if I *had* -- lol. I think NYC is an exception, as it is right on the ocean and is southward enough to experience harsher hurricanes. Sea level rise will impact all coastal communities, but in general, it seems to be projected the worst in more southernly points, and could be especially bad in Louisiana and Florida: https://vividmaps.com/americans-in-d...m-rising-seas/
It's probably going to be a more-so a matter of interior Northeast vs coastal Northeast in regards to how harshly climate change impacts QOL, as opposed to New England vs. Mid-Atlantic, though it is true that the Mid-Atlantic coastal communities are more at risk of hurricane damage.
Philadelphia sits on the cusp of interior and coastal. Most of our city is technically coastal plain, but the Northwest section is "Piedmont Upland." Obviously we are not right on the ocean, but we still have flooding issues when our rivers overflow. Correct me if I am wrong, but I think flooding from river overflow is easier to handle with infrastructure than is sea level rise right on the ocean.
Ida was bad for everything in its path. It was quite extreme in how far its destruction ranged across the country. Perhaps that will become more common. But, obviously, it hit the Gulf much worse than it did the Northeast.
I think the best long-term potential is for the still-affordable cities with nice urban bones, especially such as Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Detroit, etc., and yes, even Philadelphia and Chicago, to a degree.
Last edited by Muinteoir; 09-28-2021 at 10:23 AM..
Reason: typo
Are you sure of that? If we're talking the coastal cities of the Northeast I don't know if they'll fare any better in the coming decades either. I mean Hurricane Ida showed how unprepared those particular cities were against a natural disaster. Also if those cities continue to get more expensive I can't see people flocking to those areas in mass.
Now I can see the state benefiting more in the coming decades than Philly just because it's less likely to be impacted by climate change and cost of living. I do see a region like New England doing much better with climate change than the rest of the NE though.
I also see states surrounding the great lakes doing better than most along with the Pacific Northwest and Northern great plains region faring better in the coming decades.
You do realize how quick the elevation increases in cities like New York, Boston and Portland ME. Right?
Most affected areas will be ritzy seaside towns and resort villages on Cape Cod, Long Island, the Jersey Shore and Maryland seaboard.
Much better positioned than cities like Miami, Houston, Pheonix, Las Vegas, Los Angeles and San Francisco which all have a combination of issues like Sea Level Rising, Hurricanes, Flooding, Wildfires, Earthquakes,etc on the horizon.
Interior Midwest, Upstate New York cities and interior Northeast will fare the best.
You do realize how quick the elevation increases in cities like New York, Boston and Portland ME. Right?
Most affected areas will be ritzy seaside towns and resort villages on Cape Cod, Long Island, the Jersey Shore and Maryland seaboard.
Much better positioned than cities like Miami, Houston, Pheonix, Las Vegas, Los Angeles and San Francisco which all have a combination of issues like Sea Level Rising, Hurricanes, Flooding, Wildfires, Earthquakes,etc on the horizon.
Interior Midwest, Upstate New York cities and interior Northeast will fare the best.
Would definitely agree with this, generally speaking (also, the Pacific Northwest, as noted earlier, is much more prone to drought/heat waves than many thought until recently).
And no place is making it out of climate change unscathed. Even without drought/hurricanes, the interior Northeast/Midwest is still very prone to flooding from much greater rainfall intensity and everywhere seems to be more prone to tornados or microbursts than ever before.
Would definitely agree with this, generally speaking (also, the Pacific Northwest, as noted earlier, is much more prone to drought/heat waves than many thought until recently).
And no place is making it out of climate change unscathed. Even without drought/hurricanes, the interior Northeast/Midwest is still very prone to flooding from much greater rainfall intensity and everywhere seems to be more prone to tornados or microbursts than ever before.
What makes you so sure the growth rates in the West and South will sustain in the long-term future? Will the metros not, at some point, peak in population growth, just as many cities in California have already? In my prediction, Texas, Utah, Colorado, Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, etc. will not sustain these growth rates forever.
If I *had* to make a prediction, I would predict that within a few decades, things will start trending back in favor of the Northeast and Midwest. These two regions are best positioned to endure the effects of climate change, and have the urban bones and infrastructure to withstand future population growth and urban revivalism. As extreme hurricanes and wildfires trend upwards in these regions, how many people will continue to find these climates favorable? Winter is not that bad. And unlike most of the West and South where new construction is the only option, the bones are already present in the Northeast and Midwest, and the pre-WWII bones are more sustainable on a few different fronts.
While I agree that competition with NYC's unmatched strength in various industries has historically slowed Philadelphia's growth, I see no reason that should remain so in the future. Firstly, net migration between Philadelphia and NYC has favored Philadelphia in recent years: https://centercityphila.org/news/mor...hia-job-growth
Secondly, *if* our nation takes improving our mass transit seriously, a bullet train across the Northeast Corridor could make commutes to-and-from both NYC-Philadelphia and Philadelphia-DC completely plausible, especially for hybrid workers. A bullet train could effectively change what is a ~80 minute train ride between NYC and Philadelphia to about 30 mins.
As our nation shifts from the usual 9-to-5 office set up, to more remote and hybrid style work, it is completely possible New Yorkers will increasingly eye Philadelphia as a more manageable and affordable place to live, without giving up all of the urban amenities they enjoy in New York. Anecdotally, every New Yorker with whom I am friends, and I have plenty, really enjoy visiting Philadelphia, and a few have mentioned interest in moving here should career opportunities present themselves.
And, on the topic of "coolness," the only people who would not find something "cool" about Philadelphia are either a) totally ignorant about the city, granted we could definitely step up our visibility game, considering we are among the top 3 most urban cities in the US, or b) the kind of people who do not find urbanity, distinct local culture, ethnic enclaves, thriving restaurant and nightlife scenes, block parties, public transit, etc. cool.
Can't +1 you again officially, so I'll do it this way.
Not to mention that winters in Philadelphia aren't that raw or that long.
What makes you so sure the growth rates in the West and South will sustain in the long-term future? Will the metros not, at some point, peak in population growth, just as many cities in California have already? In my prediction, Texas, Utah, Colorado, Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, etc. will not sustain these growth rates forever.
If I *had* to make a prediction, I would predict that within a few decades, things will start trending back in favor of the Northeast and Midwest. These two regions are best positioned to endure the effects of climate change, and have the urban bones and infrastructure to withstand future population growth and urban revivalism. As extreme hurricanes and wildfires trend upwards in these regions, how many people will continue to find these climates favorable? Winter is not that bad. And unlike most of the West and South where new construction is the only option, the bones are already present in the Northeast and Midwest, and the pre-WWII bones are more sustainable on a few different fronts.
While I agree that competition with NYC's unmatched strength in various industries has historically slowed Philadelphia's growth, I see no reason that should remain so in the future. Firstly, net migration between Philadelphia and NYC has favored Philadelphia in recent years: https://centercityphila.org/news/mor...hia-job-growth
Secondly, *if* our nation takes improving our mass transit seriously, a bullet train across the Northeast Corridor could make commutes to-and-from both NYC-Philadelphia and Philadelphia-DC completely plausible, especially for hybrid workers. A bullet train could effectively change what is a ~80 minute train ride between NYC and Philadelphia to about 30 mins.
As our nation shifts from the usual 9-to-5 office set up, to more remote and hybrid style work, it is completely possible New Yorkers will increasingly eye Philadelphia as a more manageable and affordable place to live, without giving up all of the urban amenities they enjoy in New York. Anecdotally, every New Yorker with whom I am friends, and I have plenty, really enjoy visiting Philadelphia, and a few have mentioned interest in moving here should career opportunities present themselves.
And, on the topic of "coolness," the only people who would not find something "cool" about Philadelphia are either a) totally ignorant about the city, granted we could definitely step up our visibility game, considering we are among the top 3 most urban cities in the US, or b) the kind of people who do not find urbanity, distinct local culture, ethnic enclaves, thriving restaurant and nightlife scenes, block parties, public transit, etc. cool.
While I agree with most of this. On your last paragraph, mosr people i know who do not like Philadelphia a) went there, b) already live in/around other big cities c) are party people who love vibrant fun areas.
I think the issue, again, is being around city center which dulls out fast. Its urban and busy sure. But not eclectic and bussin like the Villages or Hoboken. Like most people cannot find that equivalent of Philly. I still dont even know where that is
While I agree with most of this. On your last paragraph, mosr people i know who do not like Philadelphia a) went there, b) already live in/around other big cities c) are party people who love vibrant fun areas.
I think the issue, again, is being around city center which dulls out fast. Its urban and busy sure. But not eclectic and bussin like the Villages or Hoboken. Like most people cannot find that equivalent of Philly. I still dont even know where that is
I guess I just don't understand the disconnect with such folks. Philadelphia is arguably one of the most eclectic large cities in the US; it's literally like a bunch of walkable, human-scaled villages stitched together.
If someone claims that they couldn't find eclectic vibrancy in Rittenhouse, Filter Square, Midtown Village, Old City, Bella Vista, Passyunk, Fairmount, Brewerytown, NoLibs, Fishtown, Spruce Hill, or Powelton Village, then I'd question that person's understanding of what eclectic urban vibrancy is.
Can't +1 you again officially, so I'll do it this way.
Not to mention that winters in Philadelphia aren't that raw or that long.
All east coast cities get a bad rep. It’s like there is this collective delusion that the entire east coast has a Winter like Keene NH or Saratoga NY.
While I agree with most of this. On your last paragraph, mosr people i know who do not like Philadelphia a) went there, b) already live in/around other big cities c) are party people who love vibrant fun areas.
I think the issue, again, is being around city center which dulls out fast. Its urban and busy sure. But not eclectic and bussin like the Villages or Hoboken. Like most people cannot find that equivalent of Philly. I still dont even know where that is
I would like to meet these people and listen to their logic because I cannot wrap my head around the thought of Philadelphia lacking fun or vibrant areas, especially compared to Hoboken, which is fun and cool, but not a fair comparison. Are you and your friends just looking circuit parties, and base a city's desirability and vibrancy off of that?
I have taken friends from all over the world to Philadelphia and almost all of them love it and were shocked at how large and vibrant it is. And my New York friends are always up for a Philly weekend for a change of scenery.
Lastly, can you stop saying "most people" unless you were referring to your select friend group.
Philadelphia is not your favorite city (okay), but your comments come off as kinda ignorant (in a harmless why, but it sounds like you don't know anything about the city and are judging it harshly based on your rainy afternoon visit).
Quote:
Originally Posted by Duderino
I guess I just don't understand the disconnect with such folks. Philadelphia is arguably one of the most eclectic large cities in the US; it's literally like a bunch of walkable, human-scaled villages stitched together.
If someone claims that they couldn't find eclectic vibrancy in Rittenhouse, Filter Square, Midtown Village, Old City, Bella Vista, Passyunk, Fairmount, Brewerytown, NoLibs, Fishtown, Spruce Hill, or Powelton Village, then I'd question that person's understanding of what eclectic urban vibrancyis.
Agree, I don't get it...
Last edited by cpomp; 10-03-2021 at 07:21 PM..
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