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I think you thinking SF is cool is very much your opinion and not really supported by much evidence
What "evidence" is there supporting the opinion that ANY city is very much cool? It's all opinion.
What's not supported by evidence is "people are only moving to SF because of jobs." That's obviously a sweeping statement with no factual support and is belied by the fact that many of the people who have the best career prospects choose to live there. I'm sure a Wharton MBA doesn't "have to" live in SF the same way someone with an associate's degree living in Dallas working in payroll "has to" live in Dallas.
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Originally Posted by btownboss4
If it’s all about NIMBYs driving up housing costs why did SF have the weakest real estate recovery in the country after COVID?
NIMBY-ism has quite a bit to do with it. The Bay Area, unlike the NYC metro area, is uniformly expensive. When COVID hit, a lot of New Yorkers moved to New Jersey where the rents are cheaper. The Bay Area, however, is expensive nearly everywhere with median housing prices across the entire CSA approaching $1 million (possibly even exceeding that threshold already). Consequently, there is far more financial incentive to leave the Bay Area entirely since moving to a nearby suburb with cheap housing costs isn't really an option.
What "evidence" is there supporting the opinion that ANY city is very much cool? It's all opinion.
What's not supported by evidence is "people are only moving to SF because of jobs." That's obviously a sweeping statement with no factual support and is belied by the fact that many of the people who have the best career prospects choose to live there. I'm sure a Wharton MBA doesn't "have to" live in SF the same way someone with an associate's degree living in Dallas working in payroll "has to" live in Dallas.
NIMBY-ism has quite a bit to do with it. The Bay Area, unlike the NYC metro area, is uniformly expensive. When COVID hit, a lot of New Yorkers moved to New Jersey where the rents are cheaper. The Bay Area, however, is expensive nearly everywhere with median housing prices across the entire CSA approaching $1 million (possibly even exceeding that threshold already). Consequently, there is far more financial incentive to leave the Bay Area entirely since moving to a nearby suburb with cheap housing costs isn't really an option.
No factual basis? Obviously I can’t speak for 330,000,000 people but the fact is SF’s economy has to well outperform every city in the country on a percent basis (when it’s already the wealthiest city in the county) to grow below trend, and the second people didn’t have to come into the office residential rents plummeted and never recovered. While places like New York bounced back pretty much immediately after the “New York plague” era of media overage stopped kind of points to most people making an economic not emotional judgement.
Like Miami is pretty expensive but it’s real estate market exploded because once people didn’t have to show up to the office every day, people around the country said “I’m moving to Miami” in SF they says “I am
Leaving SF” in most cities in the middle it was early/mid 20s professionals who decided to move home for a year with their parents in the suburbs then move back when the bars open again.
On a macro level. People move to San Francisco to earn a whole lot of money. It’s basically still a gold rush town.
No factual basis? Obviously I can’t speak for 330,000,000 people but the fact is SF’s economy has to well outperform every city in the country on a percent basis (when it’s already the wealthiest city in the county) to grow below trend, and the second people didn’t have to come into the office residential rents plummeted and never recovered. While places like New York bounced back pretty much immediately after the “New York plague” era of media overage stopped kind of points to most people making an economic not emotional judgement.
That's neither evidence for nor against "coolness." First, you need to account for why rents in SF are so high in the first place, which would be a significant piece of "evidence" in favor of its coolness. Second, you need to account for the fact that SF is STILL more expensive than any other city in the U.S., including NYC, both before and after the pandemic. Third, you need to address the fact that SF was already a very expensive city before the tech boom of the 90s/00s. Fourth, you need to address the fact that SF has more Ivy League grads than any city not named NY. These are people who could make a lot of money in New York, London, Hong Kong or even Boston yet they decide to move to SF. Why is that? SF even has one of the highest number of doctors per capita--higher than Chicago, DC, Philadelphia--and these are people who are not as tied to particular markets as bankers, lawyers or tech VCs and ALSO have the money to live practically anywhere they want (in fact, they often make LESS in big cities).
You just ignored that last question entirely, but I understand why you would since it's a tough one to explain away.
That's neither evidence for nor against "coolness." First, you need to account for why rents in SF are so high in the first place, which would be a significant piece of "evidence" in favor of its coolness. Second, you need to account for the fact that SF is STILL more expensive than any other city in the U.S., including NYC, both before and after the pandemic. Third, you need to address the fact that SF was already a very expensive city before the tech boom of the 90s/00s. Fourth, you need to address the fact that SF has more Ivy League grads than any city not named NY. These are people who could make a lot of money in New York, London, Hong Kong or even Boston yet they decide to move to SF. Why is that? SF even has one of the highest number of doctors per capita--higher than Chicago, DC, Philadelphia--and these are people who are not as tied to particular markets as bankers, lawyers or tech VCs and ALSO have the money to live practically anywhere they want (in fact, they often make LESS in big cities).
You just ignored that last question entirely, but I understand why you would since it's a tough one to explain away.
SF’s base price is very expensive because there are two factors in a Supply and demand curve, and the economic incentive pre-remote work was so strong and wages so much higher in SF than elsewhere they it was worth it. The fact San Francisco got hit the hardest by remote work is clearly because there weee tons of people there just for the money.
I don’t think anyone thinks Boston is cooler than Miami but it’s more expensive than Miami.
San Francisco has the most Ivy League graduates because it’s companies pay those sorts of college grads way more than they’d make in Philly or even Boston.
18Montclair had demonstrated for most of the elite professional class despite high housing prices the wages in the Bay Area are so high That especially if you plan on leaving at some point, it’s absolutely worth it from a financial perspective. Just like people move to the oil fields of Northern Alberta where a hot dog is $17.50 because the wages are just so high that a somewhat lower savings rate is still more savings then you’d make in Texas.
SF’s base price is very expensive because there are two factors in a Supply and demand curve, and the economic incentive pre-remote work was so strong and wages so much higher in SF than elsewhere they it was worth it. The fact San Francisco got hit the hardest by remote work is clearly because there weee tons of people there just for the money.
There are tons of people in New York who are here "just for the money." In fact, a lot of these people wouldn't even be in NYC right now had firms not started cracking the whip on people getting back into the office.
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Richard Gnodde, chief executive officer of Goldman Sachs International, one of the most ardent return to office banks, told the Davos gathering that 70% of Goldman’s workforce are now typically in the office on any given day and that the number is “drifting up.” That compares to about 80% or 85% before the pandemic.
I personally know several people who left NY during the pandemic and moved to Maryland, North Carolina, Florida or California and their firms basically ordered them to come back to the NY region. That should be an important consideration in your analysis since not all industries--particularly the financial industry, which is *coincidentally* the most important industry in NY state--are not as keen on people working remotely as tech companies are.
I'm curious to know what Magic 8 ball you possess that you can shake and peer into and see that "Hmm, this person moved to NY for the money and that person moved to NY for the vibes."
Last edited by BajanYankee; 06-15-2022 at 09:22 AM..
I've been reading the discussion here and just wanted to point out that the NYC area is by far more expensive now than the Bay Area, average rent for a 1 bedroom in NYC is $4,000 a month, SF is $3,000 a month. Rents have actually fallen in the Bay Area while in NYC area they are rising like crazy. The Bay Area is no longer considered the most expensive place in the country, NYC, Miami, and Boston have taken the lead
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NearFantastica
I've been reading the discussion here and just wanted to point out that the NYC area is by far more expensive now than the Bay Area, average rent for a 1 bedroom in NYC is $4,000 a month, SF is $3,000 a month. Rents have actually fallen in the Bay Area while in NYC area they are rising like crazy. The Bay Area is no longer considered the most expensive place in the country, NYC, Miami, and Boston have taken the lead
If youre comparing Manhattan to just SF, sure. Here is the difference. You can go into Jersey and buy a decent sized house for not an arm and a leg while still being able to take a train into the city in less than half an hour. In the Bay Area, there is no running from it. Doesnt matter how far you go out, you need seven figures for a house.
By metro area, there is no way NYC is more expensive than the Bay Area.
Here is the difference. You can go into Jersey and buy a decent sized house for not an arm and a leg while still being able to take a train into the city in less than half an hour.
Well the NYC metro covers different states whereas the Bay Area does not. The Bay Area "Jersey" equivalent here would be Sacramento.
I've been reading the discussion here and just wanted to point out that the NYC area is by far more expensive now than the Bay Area, average rent for a 1 bedroom in NYC is $4,000 a month, SF is $3,000 a month. Rents have actually fallen in the Bay Area while in NYC area they are rising like crazy. The Bay Area is no longer considered the most expensive place in the country, NYC, Miami, and Boston have taken the lead
The median rent in Manhattan is $4,000, not NYC as a whole. You're mixing and matching here. Manhattan is more expensive than the Bay Area, but all Five Boroughs are not more expensive than SF or the whole Bay Area for that matter.
The median price for a home in the entire Bay Area is well over $1 million.
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The median sale price for a Bay Area home last month was $1.54 million. It is the price in the very middle of a data set, with exactly half of the houses priced for less and half-priced for more in the Bay Area real estate market. The rising prices show that the Bay Area housing market is distinguished by high demand, cheap mortgage rates, and a scarcity of available inventory. Due to increased demand from the state's high-income residents who can take advantage of low-interest mortgage rates, home prices are skyrocketing.
The difference between New York and San Francisco is that you can find lower housing costs outside of the city core in the former. There aren't any bargains to go around in the Bay Area at all. The median price for a home in the entire CSA is 2.5 times the median price of a home in Washington, DC (just the city, not metro).
If youre comparing Manhattan to just SF, sure. Here is the difference. You can go into Jersey and buy a decent sized house for not an arm and a leg while still being able to take a train into the city in less than half an hour. In the Bay Area, there is no running from it. Doesnt matter how far you go out, you need seven figures for a house.
By metro area, there is no way NYC is more expensive than the Bay Area.
Exactly.
Also, Manhattan's rents are actually rising in the face of population decline. There's no evidence that people are actually returning to the city.
Quote:
Anyone fighting to find a scarce apartment to rent might think the local population is rebounding two years after COVID drove an exodus out of New York City. But information tracked by the federal government suggests that, while the rate of decline is slowing, more people are continuing to exit or die, than are being born or moving here.
Start with the Census Bureau, which in late March published population estimates that cover the period from April 2020 to June 2021 and found 300,000 fewer people living in New York City than before the pandemic.
Manhattan accounted for one in three people who left or died — far more than its share of the city’s population.
Since January 2022, New York has had net loss of roughly 31K residents.
Last edited by BajanYankee; 06-15-2022 at 11:55 AM..
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