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Duluth has some saving graces for its future prospects:
1. It is extremely beautiful and is one of the Midwest’s best outdoorsy towns.
2. It has one of Minnesota’s larger universities (UMD).
3. It is pretty much immune to climate change.
I think the city needs to overcome two major hurdles:
1. Plan for a graceful exit from the declining mining port scene and develop non mining port activities. The port is a huge industry and should be taken advantage of. Sea travel is the most efficient way to move frieght.
2. Build up and clean up downtown to attract businesses. Duluth has really good bones for a trendy urban downtown.
Take a look at this list of US metro areas and you will see that even the vast majority of small metro areas like ones you're describing are enjoying very healthy growth rates.
I agree. Smaller, stand alone cities are serving their region and are attracting people. These cities have a reason for being. People may lose sight of that if their only experience is in megalopolises where sprawl is the sea that they are swimming in and there is no apparent region for a particular city.
Sure they do! The more interesting thing to me will be what happens to the suburbs vs cores in smaller metros.
Younger people are less interested in car ownership and having to drive everywhere. They prefer walking and transit. Most post 1950's suburbs were designed with cars as the default mode of doing...everything. Smaller metros have plenty denser, historic, more walk-able neighborhoods close to their downtowns. These are the types of neighborhoods that are already gentrified or in the process of gentrifying in major metros.
Ironically it may be millenials key to building wealth through home-ownership like their parents did. I can't imagine most suburban home values continuing to grow long term. An adventurous young couple might be able to get a home in an 'urban' neighborhood at a fraction of what they'd pay in the suburbs their parents may have chosen. There's far more room for equity appreciation in that scenario.
What does that mean for those metros existing suburbs? Will the economics shift, with these suburbs showing the urban decay that was so prevalent in cities during the 1970s? Maybe? I think it might make sense, as I do think there are early signs of this already in some large metros. We'll just have to wait and see!
Certain industries and professions are without question centralizing. Industries once full of small local firms are now dominated by large companies HQ'd in bigger cities. Higher-wage professions that need young adults tend to concentrate in the typical list of cities due to recruitment. Many industries exist in local "ecosystems" where people can switch jobs without moving cities.
Good air service is a major requirement by both many companies and many young professionals. Required connecting flights are a huge problem. Some people seem to discount that (see Amazon speculation) but look at where the major companies are going, particularly anyone who recruits or does business globally. And it's not just connections, but also how many trips per day. Some smaller cities have gone seriously backwards in air service due to industry/regulatory trends, as have some fairly big cities.
That said, cost is clearly an issue, and will help self-regulate the trend. Expensive cities tend to draw a continuous flow of 20-somethings but fail to attract or keep as many families.
Tech is a huge industry to be in right now. The tech industry employs a lot of people remotely, meaning you can work from home. If that's the case, it would actually make smaller cities more appealing bc many people who work from home can go live in a smaller town without the traffic and better housing prices. Although what I've witnessed is that many times these work from home professionals (i.e. software developers) want to live in some expensive mountain resort town or on the beach.
The introduction of consumerized technology over the years has caused younger generations to become more antisocial, relying on apps like Tinder to date. Again, what's the point of living in a huge urban center when you can meet people online?
More jobs are becoming remote (although not fast enough IMO). I do think that in 20-50 years it will be very common for your average job to be done remotely from a computer at home. So if anything, I see the future as more people flocking to the suburbs and smaller towns and leaving the hassle of urban environments.
There is another very disturbing newish Trendld and new ,well established businesses going bottoms up. EVERYWHERE...Example, fabric stores. TONS of old ,or/and well established fabric stores in many states and cities ENDING. ONLY corporation chain stores survive.In places like Oregon, you'd have to go to a major city,Portland, or ONLINE.AND its the same in almost every state.NOT BEING ABLE TO BUY SUPPLIES is now common.--Many try to go only online,because it takes expenses down.--but I know of fabric stores online vanishing also. No matter what any politics says business in the USA is bad."No supplies" happens during wars and huge economic crashes.--not in healthy economies.
In other words, remote work will let people live in places they like. Sounds great for resort towns but not most places.
It could be a positive for the top urban cores too...a lot of young adults in particular prefer them, as do many empty nesters. Though I would expect a lot of cheaper urban cores to grow a critical mass as well, providing cheaper alternatives.
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ld and new ,well established businesses going bottoms up. EVERYWHERE...Example, fabric stores. TONS of old ,or/and well established fabric stores in many states and cities ENDING. ONLY corporation chain stores survive.In places like Oregon, you'd have to go to a major city,Portland, or ONLINE.AND its the same in almost every state.NOT BEING ABLE TO BUY SUPPLIES is now common.--Many try to go only online,because it takes expenses down.--but I know of fabric stores online vanishing also. No matter what any politics says business in the USA is bad."No supplies" happens during wars and huge economic crashes.--not in healthy economies.
