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This discussion is just incredible. Thanks so much for all of your contributions thus far!
So it seems to me like PA really is an odd duck because it's one of the few large states in our nation that's difficult to "pigeonhole". We're urban. We're rural. We're suburban. We're latte-sipping NPR-attuned hybrid-driving elitist snobs. We're "Joe the Plumber". We're Democrats. We're Republicans. We're the Goldilocks or Bruno Mars of states, if you will--the unassuming crowd-pleaser.
Someone excellently pointed out that while PA and NY are very similar roughly 2/3 of NY's population lives in/around NYC whereas a much smaller percentage of PA's population lives in/around Philadelphia. As such while NY is dominated by NYC overall, PA is NOT dominated by Philadelphia overall. NYC and Philadelphia are polarizing in people's minds---most either love those cities or hate them. In most people's minds outside of New York it's "NY = NYC", but in most people's minds outside of Pennsylvania it's "PA =/= Philadelphia."
Right now our state (barely) went for Trump, has a popular liberal governor, and has a conservative state legislature. While I disagree with Tom Lennox calling Philadelphia a ghetto war zone and calling Pittsburgh something to the effect of a sad dying steel town (or something similar) I do agree with him that we're a "purple" state at the moment. It seems like most Pennsylvanians like having a liberal governor and conservative legislature or a conservative governor and liberal legislature for a system of "checks and balances".
In terms of national politics I can't think of two more pivotal states in 2020 than Florida and Pennsylvania---the third- and fifth-largest states in terms of population, respectively, that are actually competitive for both parties. I think you'll see and hear a lot about both FL and PA as the election progresses. The results from both states will depend upon voter turnout. In PA, for example, if Joe Biden is the Democratic nominee, then a lot of educated urban Millennials might just decide to NOT vote or vote third-party, which will hand PA to Trump. If Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders are the Democratic nominee, then a lot of older socially-conservative "blue dog" Baby Boomer Democrats might sit out the election, in which Trump will win PA. The Republicans in PA are fairly strongly unified behind Trump, and I expect strong Republican voter turnout. This goes for both PA and FL.
On the national stage Biden BETTER pick a progressive running mate like Warren if he's the nominee, and likewise Sanders or Warren BETTER pick a moderate running mate like Biden if they're the nominee. If Trump wins both FL and PA, then it's a tough uphill battle for Democrats, as he'll also pick up Texas (3 of the 5 largest states) while the Democrats will only win CA and NY (2 of the 5 largest states). After that IL will assuredly go to the Democrat. GA will likely go red (I don't yet see GA as being a "purple" state---maybe in 20 more years). Then MI, OH, and NC will all be battlegrounds. I'm fairly confident MI will go blue. OH and NC? Again, it will be up to voter turnout in those two states. In terms of Democrats it depends upon who the bigger crybabies are---Millennials or Baby Boomers---if they don't get their way. Will more Boomers sit out the election if Biden doesn't get picked, or will more Millennials sit out the election if Warren or Sanders aren't picked? The DNC should be keeping this in mind so we don't have another lackluster candidate like Hillary Clinton.
It's interesting to me to have seen Virginia and North Carolina---once reliably Republican---become "purple" over the years due to the influx of liberal Yankee transplants seeking a lower cost-of-living and warmer weather while PA---once reliably Democrat---has also become "purple". The urban PA posters in this thread argue that PA is NOT purple, but unless the Democrats do a better job at turnout than they did in 2016 in PA (which means they need a progressive/moderate or moderate/progressive running mate team), then PA will be going to Trump again. I'm from rural PA---Luzerne County to be exact. Trump is VERY popular there, and that's a county that was also reliably blue. Trump supporters in PA are ready to vote to re-elect him in 2020. Are his opponents ready to unify behind the Democratic nominee to defeat him? If not, then PA may very well deliver a Trump victory again.
I would argue that Ohio is a red state and Virginia is a blue state
Despite its population size, it seemed to always fly under the radar until the 2016 election.
I mean, it has good attributes about it (I can see myself living in Philadelphia under the right circumstances and also its University system) and bad attributes about it (the culture in Coal Mining country and Appalachia). And yes, notable events related to the founding of our country did take place there. But as a whole, there's nothing going on there in recent history that would necessarily make me go "That's impressive!!!" or "That place sucks!!!" either.
Interesting you should say that, since Pennsylvania has long played a pretty substantial political/economic role since, well, the founding of the US.
Also, I think it's important to bear in mind that coal mining is an infinitesimal part of the Pennsylvania economy, despite the ridiculously outsized attention it receives. As of today, it provides fewer than 5,000 direct jobs in a state economy of nearly 6.1 million jobs overall. This political obsession with the coal industry is just farcical, as it's literally a drop in the ocean in terms of economic impact, at least as far as PA: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SMU42000001021210001
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Originally Posted by SteelCityRising
It's interesting to me to have seen Virginia and North Carolina---once reliably Republican---become "purple" over the years due to the influx of liberal Yankee transplants seeking a lower cost-of-living and warmer weather while PA---once reliably Democrat---has also become "purple". The urban PA posters in this thread argue that PA is NOT purple, but unless the Democrats do a better job at turnout than they did in 2016 in PA (which means they need a progressive/moderate or moderate/progressive running mate team), then PA will be going to Trump again. I'm from rural PA---Luzerne County to be exact. Trump is VERY popular there, and that's a county that was also reliably blue. Trump supporters in PA are ready to vote to re-elect him in 2020. Are his opponents ready to unify behind the Democratic nominee to defeat him? If not, then PA may very well deliver a Trump victory again.
There's no doubt that Pennsylvania has seen some flux in voting habits over the past decade, but I'd very much posit that the overall long-term trend (note: this notably excludes the 2016 election cycle, which I'll explain in a second) has definitely been for the electorate to trend ever-so-slightly-more leftward.
What Donald Trump has done has pretty much dismantled traditional political party dogma; in other words, his fiercest support is based on a cult of personality, not staunch allegiance to the Republican Party or conservative politics generally. His reign (thankfully) is term-limited, and he'll eventually fade back into his absurd and narcissistic private life, but he'll also be taking his GOP-vote-driving persona with him. Turnout models and voting behaviors will then revert back to their historical norms.
If there was any chance for Pennsylvania to be considered "more purple," it would have shown up in 2018 election results, but the fact of the matter is, without an orange egomaniac on the ballot, Dems won the Senate and Governor's office (facing two very Trump-like candidates, mind you) with winning margins of nearly 20%. Similarly, as someone who tracks party identification in different states, let's just say that the gains that the GOP made in 2016 in party-switching (D-to-R) are quickly reversing. Young voters (which are replacing older voters who are naturally removed from voter rolls all of the time) are actually really driving this leftward trend. Further, the GOP is seriously cratering in Southeastern PA, where voter increases are very heavily concentrated.
I would argue that Ohio is a red state and Virginia is a blue state
Virginia is still purple than blue. I know others here disagree with me but perhaps Virginia and Pennsylvania are switching places. Virginia now LEANS blue due to the liberal transplants and immigrants in the DC suburbs but the native people who dominate the rest of the state are still conservative. Pennsylvania and Ohio are both still swing states but have become more Republican as people have finally begun to learn the failure of liberal policies, especially high taxes, unrestrained unions, and government overregulation including and especially the EPA and its involvement in the war on coal. Pennsylvania and Ohio has very few transplants so the shift there is due to native people. In Virginia, North Carolina, and Georgia, these states are less conservative than in the past because of transplants imposing their politics on the native population.
Since this thread has become more political, I might mention that my state has seen a consolidation of black voters behind the Democrat party and non-blacks (not just whites) behind the Republican party with the exception of the immediate city of New Orleans. Pennsylvania and Louisiana differ in that the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh still have large numbers of white suburban middle class liberals. The white middle class suburbs of New Orleans and Baton Rouge are very solidly conservative. Pennsylvania Democrats still see a combination of the inner city vote, the illegal immigrants, suburban liberals, and the liberal yuppie elites. Here in the South, the only reliably Democrat demographic is low income blacks. The most college educated parish in the greater New Orleans area is the most Republican. Trump won 67% of the vote there. The only places Trump lost in Louisiana are areas where the black population is over 40%.
The Democrats winning formula in Louisiana is to win 90% of the black vote, have over 70% of black voters turn out in an election, and win 30% of the white vote. All these criteria must be met for a Democrat to win statewide office. Winning 30% of the white vote in Louisiana is a much bigger challenge than some people might expect. Our GOP does try to reach out to black voters, especially middle class blacks and those working in industries that will be hurt by Democrat politics but many are brainwashed by the media and the Democrat machine. Its still somewhat easier to convince a white person to vote Democrat than for a black person to vote REpublican.
Wow. Well I guess there truly is one of everything, even if it goes against every bit of common sense.
This also coming from a guy who called New Jersey, New York, and California the most miserable states in the country, yet somehow Louisiana and West Virginia are great places. Apparently he forgets the wealth and economic productivity from those places are the only things that keep the lights on in his backwater little corner of the globe.
Maybe I don't subscribe to media brainwashing or racially based politics. I was born and raised in the South, so I am a Southerner. The Confederate flag has nothing to do with race or slavery regardless of what Obama and the liberal media says.
As for Yankee transplants making Southern states more liberal, these people moved south for lower taxes and more job opportunities, but they're voting to turn their new states into the ones their left, and soon there will be higher taxes, more overregulation, more crime and a higher cost of living. This is the biggest irony.
Wow. Well I guess there truly is one of everything, even if it goes against every bit of common sense.
This also coming from a guy who called New Jersey, New York, and California the most miserable states in the country, yet somehow Louisiana and West Virginia are great places. Apparently he forgets the wealth and economic productivity from those places are the only things that keep the lights on in his backwater little corner of the globe.
Have you even experienced the natural beauty and hospitality of rural West Virginia and parts of Louisiana vs the overpriced, overcrowded environs of New York and New Jersey. Can YOU actually afford to live comfortably in California with their high cost of living? Based on my income I live VERY comfortably in Louisiana, and would have even more comfortably in West Virginia. I'm about to purchase a home on 4 acres of land on a riverfront. People with my same income might be stuck in a duplex in Los Angeles or in a crowded suburb in New Jersey. If you take anyone from NY or NJ, that person working the same job in Louisiana will live more comfortably. I hardly ever have to deal with any tolls on our highways and bridges while people in New Jersey and New York regularly pay $10 a day commuting just because of toll roads. Our gas tax is much lower because drivers don't have to subsidize mass transit in major cities like NY and LA. Gas is $1.98 in my local gas station right now.
Yes we have a high poverty rate on paper but that is because we have a large mostly black underclass that lives in their own world in their own parts of town and doesn't really impact everyday life for us. So I get to enjoy lower taxes, a lower cost of living less government regulations, and more gun rights. We also have a diversified economy with a lot of high paying jobs for people without a college degree.
Virginia is still purple than blue. I know others here disagree with me but perhaps Virginia and Pennsylvania are switching places. Virginia now LEANS blue due to the liberal transplants and immigrants in the DC suburbs but the native people who dominate the rest of the state are still conservative. Pennsylvania and Ohio are both still swing states but have become more Republican as people have finally begun to learn the failure of liberal policies, especially high taxes, unrestrained unions, and government overregulation including and especially the EPA and its involvement in the war on coal. Pennsylvania and Ohio has very few transplants so the shift there is due to native people. In Virginia, North Carolina, and Georgia, these states are less conservative than in the past because of transplants imposing their politics on the native population.
Since this thread has become more political, I might mention that my state has seen a consolidation of black voters behind the Democrat party and non-blacks (not just whites) behind the Republican party with the exception of the immediate city of New Orleans. Pennsylvania and Louisiana differ in that the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh still have large numbers of white suburban middle class liberals. The white middle class suburbs of New Orleans and Baton Rouge are very solidly conservative. Pennsylvania Democrats still see a combination of the inner city vote, the illegal immigrants, suburban liberals, and the liberal yuppie elites. Here in the South, the only reliably Democrat demographic is low income blacks. The most college educated parish in the greater New Orleans area is the most Republican. Trump won 67% of the vote there. The only places Trump lost in Louisiana are areas where the black population is over 40%.
The Democrats winning formula in Louisiana is to win 90% of the black vote, have over 70% of black voters turn out in an election, and win 30% of the white vote. All these criteria must be met for a Democrat to win statewide office. Winning 30% of the white vote in Louisiana is a much bigger challenge than some people might expect. Our GOP does try to reach out to black voters, especially middle class blacks and those working in industries that will be hurt by Democrat politics but many are brainwashed by the media and the Democrat machine. Its still somewhat easier to convince a white person to vote Democrat than for a black person to vote Republican.
A few generations ago, there were many first- and second-generation European-American immigrants living in both Ohio and Pennsylvania. Fast forward to the late 2010's, many of those individuals have either passed away or retired to the Sun Belt. Longitudinal demographic research indicates that, by the third generation, most Americans vote much more conservatively than their parents and grandparents did and, as a result, favor Republican political candidates. That is one of the reasons why northern, industrialized states with few transplants and other outside influences, such as Ohio and Pennsylvania among others, are trending Republican.
Connecticut and Rhode Island, two other northern, industrialized states with limited outside influences, experienced record-breaking support for Donald Trump as the Republican candidate in the 2016 United States presidential election. Here is the link to a map of the 2016 presidential election results in Rhode Island, organized by town: https://www.nytimes.com/elections/20...s/rhode-island. Now, take a look at a map of the 2012 presidential election results for the state, also organized by town: Rhode Island Presidential Election Results - Presidential Race | NBC News.
As you may observe, only one of Rhode Island’s 39 cities and towns, Scituate, voted for Mitt Romney as the Republican candidate in the 2012 presidential election. However, approximately 14-15 towns voted for Donald Trump as the Republican candidate in the 2016 presidential election, which is the highest number of municipalities won by a Republican presidential candidate in Rhode Island during the 21st century. And to deny that the Americanization of Italian-, Irish- and French-Americans in these two states had no influence on the general election results would be disingenuous at best. President Trump is fiercely opposed to illegal immigration as are most third- and fourth- generation European-Americans, whose ancestors legally immigrated to the United States, became American citizens within a reasonable timeframe, learned to speak the native language of the United States (i.e., English), were law-abiding and did not rely on or expect to receive government benefits, unlike many legal and illegal immigrants living in present-day America.
Interesting you should say that, since Pennsylvania has long played a pretty substantial political/economic role since, well, the founding of the US.
When I say Pennsylvania seems "to always fly under the radar," it never makes the front page when it comes to best places to live, places that are rapidly growing, places that are rapidly declining, worst places to live, etc.
Its major cities are neither growing nor declining, there hasn't been much in the way of political controversy out of PA and the governments there are never accused of being well-run nor corrupt. It's neither a tourist destination nor a place people actively avoid. PA is, by all measures, a very middle-of-the-road, milquetoast state.
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Also, I think it's important to bear in mind that coal mining is an infinitesimal part of the Pennsylvania economy, despite the ridiculously outsized attention it receives. As of today, it provides fewer than 5,000 direct jobs in a state economy of nearly 6.1 million jobs overall. This political obsession with the coal industry is just farcical, as it's literally a drop in the ocean in terms of economic impact, at least as far as PA:
I was specifically referring to the CULTURE that permeates in rural and Appalachia Pennsylvania. There's no need to go into details, but let's just say as an educated, agnostic, white collar black male that was born/raised in a big city, it's not my cup of tea.
And in all fairness to PA, while the culture in rural and Appalachia is a negative attribute (to me) that it has, this negative attribute isn't unique to PA.
What's wrong with Atlanta and Dallas? A lot of people like those cities and neither are dirt cheap anymore
Soulless, generic, mostly suburban sprawl. There isn't much uniqueness to them.
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Originally Posted by Tom Lennox 70
Maybe I don't subscribe to media brainwashing or racially based politics. I was born and raised in the South, so I am a Southerner. The Confederate flag has nothing to do with race or slavery regardless of what Obama and the liberal media says.
As for Yankee transplants making Southern states more liberal, these people moved south for lower taxes and more job opportunities, but they're voting to turn their new states into the ones their left, and soon there will be higher taxes, more overregulation, more crime and a higher cost of living. This is the biggest irony.
You are so ignorant it isn't even funny anymore. To think people like you exist in the millions is scary.
A few generations ago, there were many first- and second-generation European-American immigrants living in both Ohio and Pennsylvania. Fast forward to the late 2010's, many of those individuals have either passed away or retired to the Sun Belt. Longitudinal demographic research indicates that, by the third generation, most Americans vote much more conservatively than their parents and grandparents did and, as a result, favor Republican political candidates. That is one of the reasons why northern, industrialized states with few transplants and other outside influences, such as Ohio and Pennsylvania among others, are trending Republican.
Connecticut and Rhode Island, two other northern, industrialized states with limited outside influences, experienced record-breaking support for Donald Trump as the Republican candidate in the 2016 United States presidential election. Here is the link to a map of the 2016 presidential election results in Rhode Island, organized by town: https://www.nytimes.com/elections/20...s/rhode-island. Now, take a look at a map of the 2012 presidential election results for the state, also organized by town: Rhode Island Presidential Election Results - Presidential Race | NBC News.
As you may observe, only one of Rhode Island’s 39 cities and towns, Scituate, voted for Mitt Romney as the Republican candidate in the 2012 presidential election. However, approximately 14-15 towns voted for Donald Trump as the Republican candidate in the 2016 presidential election, which is the highest number of municipalities won by a Republican presidential candidate in Rhode Island during the 21st century. And to deny that the Americanization of Italian-, Irish- and French-Americans in these two states had no influence on the general election results would be disingenuous at best. President Trump is fiercely opposed to illegal immigration as are most third- and fourth- generation European-Americans, whose ancestors legally immigrated to the United States, became American citizens within a reasonable timeframe, learned to speak the native language of the United States (i.e., English), were law-abiding and did not rely on or expect to receive government benefits, unlike many legal and illegal immigrants living in present-day America.
I suspect you don't know Rhode Island geography very well. The towns that went for Trump were low percentage of college educated white people and lots of pickup trucks. That's the Trump core demographic and Hillary Clinton was the wrong candidate to carry those towns. Eastern Connecticut once you get away from Long Island Sound has the same demographic. White. Nobody went to college. Lots of pickup trucks. Similarly, the eastern Massachusetts towns that went for Trump were the Boston Irish white flight towns south of the city with the same demographic.
I drive through that part of Connecticut and Rhode Island a couple times per week when it's not ski season. You see Confederate battle flags and anti-immigration signs. It's not prosperous.
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Apparently he forgets the wealth and economic productivity from those places are the only things that keep the lights on in his backwater little corner of the globe.