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“...for the first time in over a century, residents continue to move out of the commonwealth at a faster clip than people are moving in to replace them.
It has been the trend for four years in a row.”
“... the state’s population growth rate has slid to historic lows. And it indicates that the commonwealth will need to rely more and more on its birth-to-death ratio to keep growing.”
“The commonwealth lost the most people to Florida, North Carolina and Texas in 2016.”
As I’ve said in previous posts, there has been a negative net change for years now. Stop being selective. Don’t do that.
Some of the outflow from Virginia is likely retirees heading to more affordable Southern states, and perhaps federal worker transfers. The state is seeing a significant influx from other countries and the Northeast, plus a decent rate of natural increase. Virginia is absolutely not shrinking, but is growing at a slower rate relative to other major Southern states.
I think the race between Georgia and North Carolina the next few decades will be interesting to watch. The states are more alike than different on a national scale, but Georgia has one huge metropolitan area and then there is a large gap with the many medium sized to small metros across the state, while North Carolina is more evenly spread out from moderately large to small. North Carolina's balance is probably a bit more advantageous than Georgia's, since it is less reliant on one metro area that has become very congested with numerous local communities that have had difficulty working together. The states have switched places in total population a few times in their history, and may do so again although Georgia is a little ahead for the moment. Natural increase accounts for a higher share of Georgia's growth, and domestic migration for more of North Carolina's. Both states have promising futures but there are a few distinctions.
Nice post!
Texas has been winning for a long while and unlike the other states didn't take the hit of the recession. Based on the recent recent history Georgia and North Carolina will continue their blazing growth. Florida is next, then Virginia (which is still heavily reliant on DC's close proximity, it is their blessing and curse)
Tennessee is comfortable and Nashville in particular is winning.
SC is certainly a dark horse especially Greenville/Spartaburg and charleston.
All the rest are somewhere at the end of the list with the deep south states being last which is where they have been and will remain. The Millennials and the generation following have very little in common with those places which time forgot. Add West Virginia to that list.
Texas has been winning for a long while and unlike the other states didn't take the hit of the recession. Based on the recent recent history Georgia and North Carolina will continue their blazing growth. Florida is next, then Virginia (which is still heavily reliant on DC's close proximity, it is their blessing and curse)
Tennessee is comfortable and Nashville in particular is winning.
SC is certainly a dark horse especially Greenville/Spartaburg and charleston.
All the rest are somewhere at the end of the list with the deep south states being last which is where they have been and will remain. The Millennials and the generation following have very little in common with those places which time forgot. Add West Virginia to that list.
Millenals in those places don't act like the typical Millennial. I live in rural NC (near the SC border) and the Millennials over here are more into hunting, country music and starting families at an early age. Most Millenals here own there frist home by the time there 25. They look at Gen Z'ers as Millenals lol.
Millenals in those places don't act like the typical Millennial. I live in rural NC (near the SC border) and the Millennials over here are more into hunting, country music and starting families at an early age. Most Millenals here own there frist home by the time there 25. They look at Gen Z'ers as Millenals lol.
That was my point. I hear all the time what “millennials” want, but the fact is they are all individuals and want different things.
Metro Richmond is doing well also, and has some of the highest income levels in the South without being quite as crowded and hectic as the DC suburbs. There is a very large concentration of financial services employment in the area as well as technology. It would be nice for southern and western Virginia if they could share the wealth more, but such internal discrepancies exist in many states.
True.
A lot of people get this impression of Virginia as being wealthy, educated, and more of a "high society" than much of the rest of the South. Virtually all of the economic development in Virginia is north of I-66 in the DC area, and down I-95 and east of there. That is really a small chunk of the geographic area of the state.
Virtually everything west of I-81 is no man's land. I used to drive US-58 through Scott and Lee Counties in VA to get to KY and I-75 on my way to Indiana. There's really nothing of note for an hour in Virginia on those roads. Even finding a gas station can be a challenge. None of the coal counties have anything worth seeing. 81 pretty much runs parallel to the mountains for the entirety of the state, and there's basically nothing of note from Bristol to Roanoke, then all the way to Harrisonburg. It's 400 miles of rural driving up/down 81.
Throw out that small chunk of the state that is doing well and you have Mississippi.
Texas has been winning for a long while and unlike the other states didn't take the hit of the recession. Based on the recent recent history Georgia and North Carolina will continue their blazing growth. Florida is next, then Virginia (which is still heavily reliant on DC's close proximity, it is their blessing and curse)
Tennessee is comfortable and Nashville in particular is winning.
SC is certainly a dark horse especially Greenville/Spartaburg and charleston.
All the rest are somewhere at the end of the list with the deep south states being last which is where they have been and will remain. The Millennials and the generation following have very little in common with those places which time forgot. Add West Virginia to that list.
The thing about Florida, North Carolina, and Texas is that they have multiple significant metropolitan areas. If Houston gets hit by a hurricane, Texas won't economically fail. If oil takes a hit, Texas is diverse enough to withstand that. Florida doesn't have as deep of an economy, but it's still much better off than many other Southern states.
Tennessee really doesn't have a significant metro aside from Nashville. Memphis has many issues, and is essentially stagnant. Knoxville and Chattanooga are doing fine with slow growth, but aren't that large and are just kind of "there." Most of the rest of the state, in particular west Tennessee, is struggling.
I used to work/live in Kingsport-Bristol, which has the lowest weekly wages in Tennessee, which is itself a low wage state. There is plenty of blue collar work here in the <$15/hr range, but even with the low cost of living, it's not that much money. Two $15/hr people can live OK together. There isn't much opportunity for white collar stuff in Tennessee aside from Nashville.
You also can't lump a state together as a whole. The major metros have bright futures - the small towns and rural areas, not so much. The only states that I think you could lump as a whole would be MS and WV. Neither have bright futures.
Also, it's easy to buy into media hype and think of Millennials as basically a uniform group of latte-sipping hipsters, complaining about their student loans and high rent from diverse urban cores. Millennials are everywhere. In general, the Millennials in my neck of the woods aren't high achievers. You have a very small, younger, upper middle income professional class working for the F500 chemical plant and the health system, and that's about it. The rest are mostly blue collar, conservative, and very traditional in terms of family life and value systems.
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