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I would also say the Dakotas, Nebraska, and Wyoming probably won't ever flip.
Overall, states with few major cities, especially relative to the rural population, likely won't flip. The states that do flip blue have big cities, and typically a higher (and rising) urban population compared to rural population. It's what you're starting to see in Texas with the explosion in population in Dallas, Houston, Austin, and San Antonio.
Some quick guesses off the top of my head:
Oklahoma
Utah
Idaho
Alabama
Mississippi
Mississippi is very racially polarized. If if ever becomes 50%+ Black, it will shift politically overnight, and Black population is growing in relative terms.
It's currently a state where the average win is 12% for the GOP with +-5 depending on whether it's a landslide for a given party.
Alabama, Idaho and Oklahoma are solid picks.
Utah will stay GOP for the next 30 years, but the Salt Lake City area has been blueing quite quickly, and there's a Dem Congressman in that area (Ben McAdams).
I'd go with:
Alabama
Arkansas
Idaho
Oklahoma
Wyoming (unless it become a tech hub, then it could change very quickly)
I would also say the Dakotas, Nebraska, and Wyoming probably won't ever flip.
Overall, states with few major cities, especially relative to the rural population, likely won't flip. The states that do flip blue have big cities, and typically a higher (and rising) urban population compared to rural population. It's what you're starting to see in Texas with the explosion in population in Dallas, Houston, Austin, and San Antonio.
Montana has a Dem Governor, a Dem Senator, has tied races for Governor, Senate and House of Representatives this year AND Obama only lost it by 2% in 2008.
Plus, the fastest growing parts (Bozeman and Missoula) are the most liberal parts. 60% of Montana's growth this past decade came from counties that voted for Sen. Jon Tester (D) in 2018.
Montana has a Dem Governor, a Dem Senator, has tied races for Governor, Senate and House of Representatives this year AND Obama only lost it by 2% in 2008.
Plus, the fastest growing parts (Bozeman and Missoula) are the most liberal parts. 60% of Montana's growth this past decade came from counties that voted for Sen. Jon Tester (D) in 2018.
Montana's center-right but very elastic state.
That's surprising to me. I thought it was solidly red. Interesting
I'm surprised nobody mentioned Missouri before me. It had one of the reddest shifts since 2008, and doesn't seem to show any signs of reversing (even flipped a Senate seat red in 2018).
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