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People move because there's better economic opportunity elsewhere. Unfortunately, the US safety net drastically restricts the mobility of the poor. Once you're tied into the state's safety net, it's really hard to move to a place where you would lose all the state support.
If you drill down into the demographics of who is leaving the high cost of living regions, it tends to be centered on people at or below the median income. They're locked out of the housing market but they're not locked into the safety net so they move to where there's more opportunity at their job skill level. If you're a 5%er white collar professional, the local salary differential is big enough to keep you in the housing market. If you got C's in High School and have some community college or 3rd tier state school education, unless you're locked into a union public sector job where the comp is out of line with the labor supply, you don't earn enough to afford housing.
SLC and Boise still aren't remotely at the level of Atlanta, Phoenix or Dallas. We're talking maybe some hundreds of thousands of new residents the past few decades for the former cities, but millions of new residents in the latter ones. They really don't compare.
When I say that people are snow/cold wimps, citing some smaller city in the north adding maybe 100K or 200K over the past couple decades for maybe 10% or 20% growth doesn't come close to matching the 1 million or 2 million people moving to the Atlantas or Phoenixes of the world. That tells you there are only 100K or 100K people willing to move to a snowier location while there are 1 million or 2 million people moving to a warm location. It's no contest.
If there were large cities with lots of snow that had the growth of Atlanta or Phoenix, you might have a point. But as I said, there is pretty much just 1 of those - Denver. Not even the economically healthier snow belt cities like Minneapolis or Boston can come close to the growth rate of Dallas or Atlanta or Phoenix. And the clear and obvious reason for that is because large swaths of the population are cold and snow wimps.
Here's a great example of what I'm talking about:
Greater Boston
1990 population: 4,133,895
2019 est. population: 4,873,019
------------------------------------
Growth of just under 18%
Greater Houston
1990 population: 3,301,937
2019 est. population: 7,066,141
-------------------------------------
Growth of 114%
People move because there's better economic opportunity elsewhere. Unfortunately, the US safety net drastically restricts the mobility of the poor. Once you're tied into the state's safety net, it's really hard to move to a place where you would lose all the state support.
If you drill down into the demographics of who is leaving the high cost of living regions, it tends to be centered on people at or below the median income. They're locked out of the housing market but they're not locked into the safety net so they move to where there's more opportunity at their job skill level. If you're a 5%er white collar professional, the local salary differential is big enough to keep you in the housing market. If you got C's in High School and have some community college or 3rd tier state school education, unless you're locked into a union public sector job where the comp is out of line with the labor supply, you don't earn enough to afford housing.
I wouldn't call any of the cities listed by the OP as high cost of living cities. Part of the reason some people leave is that the lower costs are also reflected in lower salaries in some professions. In some cities higher taxes are offset by lower housing costs. Heating costs are offset by low/no cooling costs. Insurance costs are reduced by fewer natural disasters, etc. But a lot of people like to compare gross salary and don't always consider the net. For people that live the generic American lifestyle - a house in the suburbs - location may not really matter that much if that's all you are looking for as that can be found almost anywhere.
Other people leave because of the types of jobs available. High tech is concentrated in very few cities. Cities that are already growing will have more jobs in construction and homebuilding, for example, and there will always be more jobs for low-end workers like in supermarkets in areas where new ones are being built. Most of these fast-growing places also pay less than stable areas in the north for low end jobs, but as there are fewer openings in the north it doesn't matter unless you are already employed.
Last edited by RocketSci; 12-07-2020 at 10:56 AM..
You have to do those things whether you live up north or down south though.
At least living down south, you can go years without having to shovel snow at all (if not ever).
So I'm not sure what your point is...?
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Originally Posted by citidata18
Definitely mow the lawn, because you won't be freezing your buns off when doing it, and it likely won't be too hot/humid the 4 additional times a year you'd have to do it.
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Originally Posted by citidata18
When this is the weather forecast in December, living back up north just seems even less appealing...
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Originally Posted by citidata18
Who wants to shovel their driveway at all?
You keep pushing the climate less winters card for Sunbelt boasting..... we all know things like what real winters have...... vs mild far less snow chance regions. In most post only give southern and warmer weather cities any vote. OF course a key reason is Corporate relocations for cheaper abodes and migrations for the jobs created, with less winters a huge bonus to many who use as a #1 reason also. Still only the South wins anything today is a bit narrow.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ckhthankgod
Places like Madison WI and to a lesser degree, Ann Arbor MI are a couple of mid/smaller sized snowy areas that are growing at a good clip.
Well, Madison WI is what
- A State Capital and University town .
- There are 7 colleges in Madison and 67 colleges within 100 miles enrolling a total of 347,616 students.
- The largest college in the area is University of Wisconsin Madison enrolling 43,463 students.
Ann Arbor MI '
- A University town in Detroit's CSA.
- There are 7 Colleges in Ann Arbor and nearby too and population over 123,000.
- The largest college in the area is Michigan State University enrolling 50,351 students.
Really, it is clear why these cities are growing by being University/College towns near larger cities. It is not like the North has nothing to have a region/city grow. It is that it has much less Migrations from other regions like the South would move to. WINTERS of course is a big one and CORPORATE AMERICA steering new Plants to the Cheaper regions of the Sunbelt.... it leaves the North at a continual disadvantage yet. As cost rise Southward. Things can change in future decades and factors we can't predict yet.
I would soon be a prime retirement person to leave the North for warmer abodes. I once thought I wanted Florida. I since am staying put. Did winters all my life and it is what it is. Much of the Western World has more real winters. The US just happens to be large enough Country to have these migrations to another part of the Nation in different eras. This one Southward just did not end yet.
It would be interesting to study the behaviors of the next generation of residents in these cities and metros. That is to say, what is happening with adult children of households once they start their own careers and lives? Where are they landing? If they are being drawn away, then it should be reflected in a few different metrics like median age of metro residents and median household size vs. total number of households.
You keep pushing the climate less winters card for Sunbelt boasting..... we all know things like what real winters have...... vs mild far less snow chance regions. In most post only give southern and warmer weather cities any vote. OF course a key reason is Corporate relocations for cheaper abodes and migrations for the jobs created, with less winters a huge bonus to many who use as a #1 reason also. Still only the South wins anything today is a bit narrow.
Well, Madison WI is what
- A State Capital and University town .
- There are 7 colleges in Madison and 67 colleges within 100 miles enrolling a total of 347,616 students.
- The largest college in the area is University of Wisconsin Madison enrolling 43,463 students.
Ann Arbor MI '
- A University town in Detroit's CSA.
- There are 7 Colleges in Ann Arbor and nearby too and population over 123,000.
- The largest college in the area is Michigan State University enrolling 50,351 students.
Really, it is clear why these cities are growing by being University/College towns near larger cities. It is not like the North has nothing to have a region/city grow. It is that it has much less Migrations from other regions like the South would move to. WINTERS of course is a big one and CORPORATE AMERICA steering new Plants to the Cheaper regions of the Sunbelt.... it leaves the North at a continual disadvantage yet. As cost rise Southward. Things can change in future decades and factors we can't predict yet.
I would soon be a prime retirement person to leave the North for warmer abodes. I once thought I wanted Florida. I since am staying put. Did winters all my life and it is what it is. Much of the Western World has more real winters. The US just happens to be large enough Country to have these migrations to another part of the Nation in different eras. This one Southward just did not end yet.
There's clearly a strong economic correlation to towns/cities/metros with a large university presence and to state capitals that provide a stability to a local economy. Combine the two and you have a strong economic engine.
Mowing the lawn is way more pleasant than shoveling or snowblowing snow.
Or you can live in the Greater Boston area and do both extensively.
I heartily disagree after spending many summer days in Houston cutting lawns, and many winters shoveling Buffalo snow.
One or two hours of physical labor in Houston sun, heat, and humidity would sometimes knock me out for a day or longer. Often I had to come back in the house and lay under an air conditioner and fan in order to recover, cool down and slow my racing heart, before I could finish part of my lawn (and it was not very big). Sun burn, heat exhaustion, sweat covering my body. On the verge of sun stroke and heat exhaustion. Dust in dry weather but still humid days, fire ants, mosquitos. Rainy periods more often than not would mean lawn needed cutting every 4 or 5 days. Early morning humid and damp, choking air, and blazing sun. Evening offered no relief as temperatures still above 90 and humid, even when sun was setting. Eventually began wearing sun protecting clothing - long sleeves, long pants - to protect against sun and bugs, even though it meant more heat and totally soaking through clothing with sweat. Almost no one on the last street I lived on cut their own lawn because they hired lawn services do it, it was so awful to do (not me, I hated it but I did it anyway, I refused to pay for something that I was still physically able to accomplish, even if it might kill me).
In the winter I dress for the weather, my exposed face the only part that may feel a chill. Trick is to not overdress and overheat. Most winters you maybe have to shovel a couple of inches a couple times a week, or perhaps a half dozen times where you need a snowblower. Last winter used snowblower only twice, once only because it was wet snow but not that deep. Usually I just have to push aside snow along the wheel tracks of the cars to keep them from icing, clearing the sidewalk, and removing what the street plows push in. Its a chance for adults to play in the snow.
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