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There's a thread on conservative major cities, but I didn't want to hijack that thread to post general election results. This thread is about how city propers voted.
I'll start by quoting this post of mine from a different thread that gives totals for 69 of the biggest cities. The plan is to a CSA-by-CSA compilation of election results, so people can discuss anything surprising they see:
Quote:
Originally Posted by manitopiaaa
So I went through and tried to find the Biden/Trump totals for the city propers for each of the following “major” cities. These are city propers that are either in the Top 50 by city proper population, anchor a Top 50 MSA by population, or anchor a Top 50 CSA/PSA by population. All in all, there are 69 (nice) cities here that meet the threshold. Where data was unavailable for 2020, I included asterisks (***) indicating that the data is old, though in both (Albuquerque/Portland) cases, the Clinton numbers were lower than Biden’s margins.
Of these 69 cities, 63 voted Democratic, 5 voted Republican, and 1 is disenfranchised (San Juan). The only 5 Trump-voting cities in 2020 were: Bakersfield (+3.1% Trump), Colorado Springs (+3.5% Trump), Mesa (+9.2% Trump), Oklahoma City (+1.0% Trump), and Wichita (+2.0% Trump).
Looking at trends, Bakersfield, Colorado Springs, Oklahoma City and Wichita have such low margins that they will very likely flip for the first time this decade. Mesa too is zooming left, but with a 9.2% Trump margin (the highest of the 68 cities listed), it might be able to remain in GOP hands. There is a scenario, however, where a Democrat by the end of the 2020s would be expected to win the cities proper of ALL 68 cities in Presidential election. A 68 of 68 Democratic sweep.
That said, downballot the GOP is a bit stronger. They hold the mayorships of Fort Worth, Fresno, Jacksonville, Miami, Omaha, Tulsa, and Virginia Beach, all Biden 2020 cities. Fort Worth, Fresno, Miami, and Omaha are even double-digit Biden wins, and still have GOP mayors. So while the trends bode ill for the GOP they can be expected to remain competitive in local races well after a city flips Democratic for President (largely because they can run more moderate candidates than the national GOP). It's only after a city is +20% Democratic where GOP mayoral wins begin to enter the realm of "almost never happens."
Of course, the Democrats can also play the same game. Wichita voted for Trump for President, yet they voted Democratic for their mayor (the only Trump-voting city to have a Democratic mayor).
I will begin by posting the Top 16 per city (half a sports league). Eventually, after I feel I've gone through enough major cities, I'll go back and edit each post to add cities #17-32 (making it a full sports league).
It is interesting that Seattle went more for Biden than San Francisco; considering that so many people consider SF the most liberal city in America.
City proper they are very, very close, albeit Seattle might actually be a little more liberal.
However, by metro area San Francisco is substantially more liberal than Seattle's metro. Seattle has a number of moderate and even conservative suburbs. Pierce County - which makes up the southern portion of the metro area - went about 42% for Trump. The Bay Area is quite liberal throughout.
I'm really surprised that the city of Las Vegas only went 54% for Biden, even though Clark County (and increasingly Nevada as a whole) have been considered safely blue for a while now. Maybe it's part of the trend of Hispanics voting less Democratic, which is also visible here in Miami?
Also that Honolulu only went 68% --- not that that's low, but lower than I'd expect for an Asian-majority city with a high weighted population density (many apartment towers alongside all the uninhabited land) and a large LGBTQ+ population.
Can you post the percentages by MSA? I feel like that's a better representation than either city proper or CSA. I suspect the SF/Oakland MSA will be #1 in terms of margin for Biden and San Jose will be #2.
Biden actually won the Charlotte MSA by a whopping 0.4% margin, but the CSA went Trump given how red the exurbs are (see Mooresville for example). While Biden only won 5 of the biggest 16 cities in the CSA, I was surprised how tight some of the Trump-won cities were: Shelby (+1.1% Trump), Gastonia (+3.8% Trump), Statesville (+4.2% Trump), Monroe (+4.9% Trump). As Charlotte has become bright blue, you can start to see the inner-ring suburbs and cities with large Black populations near the tipping point.
Can you post the percentages by MSA? I feel like that's a better representation than either city proper or CSA. I suspect the SF/Oakland MSA will be #1 in terms of margin for Biden and San Jose will be #2.
That was covered in a thread long ago that I started, but here are the Top 50:
This is focused on city proper precisely because the data isn't as easily accessible.
By MSA, San Francisco is #1, Washington is #2, and San Jose is #3:
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