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I think based on current growth trends and future developments, if we look only at CSA metro area designations, the only metro areas attaining megacity status are Chicago (because anemic growth will still be enough to propel it to megacity status), DC-Baltimore (because of moderately fast growth propelled by MIC/tech development), and the Bay Area (due to probably continued tech development coupled with aggressive state mandates for new housing development). Dallas and Houston, while the fastest growing cities percentage wise, still have 2 more decades to go before they attain megacity status or so.
These are my heuristic predictions, for the top 11 metro area populations in 2030 based on CSA definitions:
GIGACITIES (20,000,000 or more):
New York - 24,800,000
Los Angeles - 21,000,000
MEGACITIES (10,000,000 - 19,999,999)
DC-Baltimore - 11,000,000
Bay Area - 10,500,000
Chicago - 10,100,000
MAJOR CITIES (5,000,000 - 9,999,999)
Dallas - 9,500,000
Boston - 9,000,000
Houston - 8,500,000
Atlanta - 8,000,000
Philadelphia - 7,700,000
Miami - 7,500,000
DC-Baltimore isn’t a city, Boston-Providence isn’t a city, the Bay Area isn’t a city
That's the iffy part of CSA definitions innit? The Bay Area CSA, for instance, includes places like Stockton which are A) places seperated by miles of rural farmland and marshes and B) functionally do not even rely on the Bay Area core day-to-day to an extent that can be considered being part of a metro.
DC-Baltimore is not as iffy of a case for why CSA is a flawed definition, because in is similar to how San Francisco and San Jose MSA's are kept separate even though there's is clearly strong urbanization and economic connections between them. DC-Baltimore might be more of a stretch to be called a single urban metropolitan area compared to say SF-San Jose, but I could see arguments either way.
Location: That star on your map in the middle of the East Coast, DMV
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xqcdblh456
I think based on current growth trends and future developments, if we look only at CSA metro area designations, the only metro areas attaining megacity status are Chicago (because anemic growth will still be enough to propel it to megacity status), DC-Baltimore (because of moderately fast growth propelled by MIC/tech development), and the Bay Area (due to probably continued tech development coupled with aggressive state mandates for new housing development). Dallas and Houston, while the fastest growing cities percentage wise, still have 2 more decades to go before they attain megacity status or so.
These are my heuristic predictions, for the top 11 metro area populations in 2030 based on CSA definitions:
GIGACITIES (20,000,000 or more):
New York - 24,800,000
Los Angeles - 21,000,000
MEGACITIES (10,000,000 - 19,999,999)
DC-Baltimore - 11,000,000
Bay Area - 10,500,000
Chicago - 10,100,000
MAJOR CITIES (5,000,000 - 9,999,999)
Dallas - 9,500,000
Boston - 9,000,000
Houston - 8,500,000
Atlanta - 8,000,000
Philadelphia - 7,700,000
Miami - 7,500,000
Your predictions are a bit early for 2030. Growth nationwide has slowed. I believe this would be more reflective of 2035-2040 populations.
Also the correct term I use is mega-region vs mega city. Everything not named NY and Los Angeles would be shooting to become a mega "region". It appears three are already there or close, with two more coming soon after.
Location: That star on your map in the middle of the East Coast, DMV
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Having two or three poles is not a disqualifiable reason for making "mega region" status, in fact it might be the best factor as to why a place has an opportunity to become a mega-region.
Having two or three poles is not a disqualifiable reason for making "mega region" status, in fact it might be the best factor as to why a place has an opportunity to become a mega-region.
Do you consider MSA and City synonymous?
I don't think they are.
I think of an MSA as a cooperative between a city and it's suburbs or multiple cities and their associative burbs. Same with CSAs.
We have 2 Mega cities and an almost 3rd mega city in Chicago.
DC/Baltimore, SF/SJ and Boston are megaregions (or on their way there) in my opinion.
In terms of megacities there isn't any close after the top 3.
Most populated Regions 2021:
1. NY - 23.2M
2. LA - 18.5M
3. DC/Baltimore 9.95M
4. Chicago - 9 9M
5. Bay Area - 9.5M
6. Boston/ Providence- 8.4M
7. Dallas -Fort Worth- 8.3M
8. Houston- 7.4M
9. Philadelphia- 7.4M
10. Atlanta- 7M
Most populated Main City Metro Division:
LA -13M
NY -12M
Chicago 9.6M
Houston 7.2M
Atlanta 6.1M
Dallas - 5 M
Phoenix- 4.8M
DC - 4.6 M
Boston - 4.5M
Minneapolis- 3.8M
Miami- 3M
Seattle- 2.5M
Philadelphia- 2.2M
Detroit- 1.8M
San Francisco- 1.7M
I don't think the metro Division is an accurate representation of the pull of a city. Urban areas and MSA I think are most useful in the mega discussions, but as far as megacities we only have 3 in the running so I would rather stick to calling them mega regions to maintain a more even comparison as some MSAs don't have divisions and large core counties favor cities like LA and Houston.
Chicago, Dallas & Houston under more reasonable assumptions will be the only cities to become megacities.
I think the CSA of the Bay area goes too far to include Stockton. It won't become a mega-city. Baltimore has too strong of an identity as a separate city to just be considered an extension of DC. However this one is the closest. Boston isn't a serious contender. The others simply don't have the time.
Location: That star on your map in the middle of the East Coast, DMV
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Quote:
Originally Posted by btownboss4
Region and city are also not synonyms
Neither are city and MSA/metro, but this is used as the metric to determine "city" for some.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Logicist027
Chicago, Dallas & Houston under more reasonable assumptions will be the only cities to become megacities.
I think the CSA of the Bay area goes too far to include Stockton. It won't become a mega-city. Baltimore has too strong of an identity as a separate city to just be considered an extension of DC. However this one is the closest. Boston isn't a serious contender. The others simply don't have the time.
DC-Baltimore as a dual metro doesn't mean Baltimore "becomes an extension" of DC. It's rather its own polar city core that's able to sustain itself within it's sphere, but strongly connected with, and part of the greater CSA area surrounding it.
A downtown to downtown trip DC to Baltimore is two miles closer than DTLA to Irvine. From city proper to city proper it's even closer. Just amazing how two "major cities" with separate identities they are known for could be so close, and still obviously overlap at about 20 miles out from either.
Neither are city and MSA/metro, but this is used as the metric to determine "city" for some.
DC-Baltimore as a dual metro doesn't mean Baltimore "becomes an extension" of DC. It's rather its own polar city core that's able to sustain itself within it's sphere, but strongly connected with, and part of the greater CSA area surrounding it.
A downtown to downtown trip DC to Baltimore is two miles closer than DTLA to Irvine. From city proper to city proper it's even closer. Just amazing how two "major cities" with separate identities they are known for could be so close, and still obviously overlap at about 20 miles out from either.
CSA’s aren’t metro areas. They’re combinations overlapping metro areas. Just because people commute 4 miles from Cumberland to Plainville dies not make Boston and Providence the same city.
Anyone who thinks that is frankly, dumb. They’re overlapping metros, not the same metro.
Kingston RI is suburban Providence which has suburbs like Attleboro from which people commute to towns like Westwood which are suburban Boston.
That does not make Kingston RI part of Boston.
Last edited by btownboss4; 08-27-2022 at 08:45 PM..
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