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There is no way Phoenix is passing Chicago in the next 23 years. Not by city or metro.
All of the US is slowing down. I know Phoenix has been in the top 3 with Houston and DFW for the list couple years but the trajectory is not enough to accomplish that by 2045. Chicago metro is almost 5M people larger than Phoenix. I can see Phoenix in the the 7M range by 2045 but not 10M.
Also, to get to the 3rd largest metro, Phoenix has to get passed Atlanta, DFW and Houston. Passing these will not be as easy as passing Philadelphia
And Phoenix will have major water supply issues as the region grows.
And as you said, growth in the US has near universally slowed, so the mega population gain predictions on here seem inaccurate.
And Phoenix will have major water supply issues as the region grows.
And as you said, growth in the US has near universally slowed, so the mega population gain predictions on here seem inaccurate.
Yeah I don't see major shake-ups by the end of the decade.
Still gonna be NY sitting there all lonesome at the top,
still gonna be LA sitting there at 2nd with no one around.
Then Chicago will have groups of cities trying to team up to be equivalent (DC with Baltimore, and SF with the 10 other metros that make up the Bay).
After that there is Boston (With Providence), Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston that will all still be a million people behind Chicago.
Then comes Phoenix at the bottom of the group with Philadelphia, Atlanta all still at least 2.5M behind Chicago.
The only interesting thing to me by 2030 is how the gap in the southern metros are widening.
In 2000 both Atlanta and Houston were about 4.1M with Miami and DFW at about 5M.
Now Houston is about a million more than Atlanta and Miami, and DFW is over 1.5M larger than Atlanta.
How did Houston go from a million behind Miami to a million ahead of it? How is DFW about the same number of people ahead of Atlanta and Miami as it is behind Chicago?
After the 2010 census I like at these 4 a quadruplets. After 2020 I have been staying to look at them more like cousins
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For the record DC-Baltimore CSA is already 9.9 million, Chicagoland CSA is 9.8 million.
DC+ Baltimore MSA= 9.2 million 8000 sq mi, Chicago MSA= 9.4 million 7,200 sq mi with negative growth.
So you can call it "teaming up" all you want, but the two cities can't help where they are located. Definitively by either CSA or the two combined MSA's DC-Balt is already jumping Chicago's totals as we speak at those metrics.
The other regions are much further behind, though Dallas will jump it by MSA in 2040 or sooner.
I think based on current growth trends and future developments, if we look only at CSA metro area designations, the only metro areas attaining megacity status are Chicago (because anemic growth will still be enough to propel it to megacity status), DC-Baltimore (because of moderately fast growth propelled by MIC/tech development), and the Bay Area (due to probably continued tech development coupled with aggressive state mandates for new housing development). Dallas and Houston, while the fastest growing cities percentage wise, still have 2 more decades to go before they attain megacity status or so.
These are my heuristic predictions, for the top 11 metro area populations in 2030 based on CSA definitions:
GIGACITIES (20,000,000 or more):
New York - 24,800,000
Los Angeles - 21,000,000
MEGACITIES (10,000,000 - 19,999,999)
DC-Baltimore - 11,000,000
Bay Area - 10,500,000
Chicago - 10,100,000
MAJOR CITIES (5,000,000 - 9,999,999)
Dallas - 9,500,000
Boston - 9,000,000
Houston - 8,500,000
Atlanta - 8,000,000
Philadelphia - 7,700,000
Miami - 7,500,000
DC/Baltimore NOW is not bigger than DFW and the latter is faster growing. Similarly, if you combined SF/Oakland and SJ, its no larger than DFW. If Chicago gets its violent crime under control, I think one can see a reversal of fortune there. Boston, not going to be that large. Its historic growth the last 30 years doesn't support that. Its nowhere near the size of the DFW and Houston MSAs, so why would you think in 20 years it will have a similar population?
DFW MSA exceeds an estimated 8 million. Boston's CSA is similar size but its MSA is only 5 million.
Do you consider MSA and City synonymous?
I don't think they are.
I think of an MSA as a cooperative between a city and it's suburbs or multiple cities and their associative burbs. Same with CSAs.
We have 2 Mega cities and an almost 3rd mega city in Chicago.
DC/Baltimore, SF/SJ and Boston are megaregions (or on their way there) in my opinion.
In terms of megacities there isn't any close after the top 3.
Most populated Regions 2021:
1. NY - 23.2M
2. LA - 18.5M
3. DC/Baltimore 9.95M
4. Chicago - 9 9M
5. Bay Area - 9.5M
6. Boston/ Providence- 8.4M
7. Dallas -Fort Worth- 8.3M
8. Houston- 7.4M
9. Philadelphia- 7.4M
10. Atlanta- 7M
Most populated Main City Metro Division:
LA -13M
NY -12M
Chicago 9.6M
Houston 7.2M
Atlanta 6.1M
Dallas - 5 M
Phoenix- 4.8M
DC - 4.6 M
Boston - 4.5M
Minneapolis- 3.8M
Miami- 3M
Seattle- 2.5M
Philadelphia- 2.2M
Detroit- 1.8M
San Francisco- 1.7M
I don't think the metro Division is an accurate representation of the pull of a city. Urban areas and MSA I think are most useful in the mega discussions, but as far as megacities we only have 3 in the running so I would rather stick to calling them mega regions to maintain a more even comparison as some MSAs don't have divisions and large core counties favor cities like LA and Houston.
Main City Metro Division? Never heard of that. How is Fort Worth, 30 miles from downtown Dallas not in the mix or Oakland with SF? Boston/Providence is a stretch being its 50 miles between the two, farther than Dallas to FW, DC to Baltimor or SF to SJ.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by walker1962
DC/Baltimore NOW is not bigger than DFW and the latter is faster growing. Similarly, if you combined SF/Oakland and SJ, its no larger than DFW. If Chicago gets its violent crime under control, I think one can see a reversal of fortune there. Boston, not going to be that large. Its historic growth the last 30 years doesn't support that. Its nowhere near the size of the DFW and Houston MSAs, so why would you think in 20 years it will have a similar population?
DFW MSA exceeds an estimated 8 million. Boston's CSA is similar size but its MSA is only 5 million.
Huh? What you talkin bout Willis?
2021 Combined Statistical Area estimates:
1. New York-Newark, NY-NJ-CT-PA CSA- 23,216,685
2. Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA CSA- 18,490,242
3. Washington-Baltimore-Arlington, DC-MD-VA-WV-PA CSA- 9,946,526
4. Chicago-Naperville, IL-IN-WI CSA- 9,876,339
5. San Jose-San Francisco-Oakland, CA CSA- 9,545,921
6. Boston-Worcester-Providence, MA-RI-NH-CT CSA- 8,430,341
7. Dallas-Fort Worth, TX-OK CSA- 8,255,035
8. Houston-The Woodlands, TX CSA- 7,398,774
9. Philadelphia-Reading-Camden, PA-NJ-DE-MD CSA- 7,366,346
10. Atlanta–Athens-Clarke County–Sandy Springs, GA-AL CSA- 6,997,351
11. Miami-Port St. Lucie-Fort Lauderdale, FL CSA- 6,841,100
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Quote:
Originally Posted by walker1962
Main City Metro Division? Never heard of that. How is Fort Worth, 30 miles from downtown Dallas not in the mix or Oakland with SF? Boston/Providence is a stretch being its 50 miles between the two, farther than Dallas to FW, DC to Baltimor or SF to SJ.
Metro Division is silly, because it's just that, a division within the middle of a metro, but breaking certain sides of it up. It separates much of Montgomery County, MD which borders DC from the total as well as Frederick. Taking like 2 million from the total. Same with Ft Worth in the Dallas region it breaks it up in two. It's not a relevant population metric on here.
Skirting most of the CSA/MSA/urban area debate (I've posted a lot on that in this topic and others and think having a Bay Area megacity that goes out to Merced as the CSA does is ridiculous), I think there's now a better case to be made on all fronts for the Bay Area than when this topic was first made.
San Francisco still bled people because of extremely high rent prices, but I think that's been staved off for a bit, and to be honest, it's still really high and that's also still partially because there is a lot of demand in SF and the Bay Area while there is fairly little development in SF and especially in the rest of the Bay Area. However, there's been a series of fairly rapid changes in legislation involving development in California overall with the latest of it being this: https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/...r-17406486.php
So, if the high prices are reflective of very high demand and limited supply, and the prices in the Bay Area are *very* high, then the loosening of hurdles on development should mean that there can be a pretty clear and rapid growth path for the Bay Area.
Meanwhile, there are quite a few major transportation infrastructure projects that are under construction that will tie the urbanized ring much more into an even more cohesive entity and hopefully means less land usage necessary for modes such as private automobiles that are far less space efficient. Additionally, a lot of "density" bonuses for construction of denser development specifically targets areas near transit. So if you're getting more transit, then this bodes pretty well.
Now, I don't think the urbanized ring of SF, the Peninsula, South Bay, and East Bay as well as the very immediate surrounding areas are likely to grow and build so rapidly that those will surpass 10 million by 2030 since there's certainly some lag time between passing the legislation and having built inhabited housing, but I think it's possible for not long afterwards.
I think only Chicago is close to Mega city status. I just don't like the idea of combining completely different cities to make a "CSA" unless those cities are so close, as in the case of NYC and Jersey city, ex that they are literally across from each other. For instance, you can't tell me that Boston feels like Chicago in population. Never in a million years will I believe that. Same thing for DC and Baltimore. Completely different metros. SF would be the closest to stringing together multiple cities to include in one, but don't tell me that Stockton is a part of that. And that is still a stretch considering how far away San Jose is to SF.
I think only Chicago is close to Mega city status. I just don't like the idea of combining completely different cities to make a "CSA" unless those cities are so close, as in the case of NYC and Jersey city, ex that they are literally across from each other. For instance, you can't tell me that Boston feels like Chicago in population. Never in a million years will I believe that. Same thing for DC and Baltimore. Completely different metros. SF would be the closest to stringing together multiple cities to include in one, but don't tell me that Stockton is a part of that. And that is still a stretch considering how far away San Jose is to SF.
Yea, that makes sense. I'd say that Stockton is a wild one to rope in, but I think there's a good argument that SF-SJ-Oakland and the ring they form around the bay is pretty continuous urbanization and there are also a couple of crossings. They being in the same state and having closely tied histories to each other also help cement that. I think it'd be absurd to not consider them a single MSA once there's Caltrain electrification with high frequencies and BART heading down further into San Jose.
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