Most Overpriced Housing Markets, Largest Metro Areas, Feb 28, 2022

[TarHeelNick]

Originally Posted by Toxic Toast

It is explained in the link. They are considering the long term history of pricing in the markets compared to how fast the price increases accelerated in the last couple of years. Doesn't seem "fabricated" or "sort of bs" to me.

Nah...still very subjective and short-sighted.

Economic indicators don't exist in a vacuum nor are they fixed.

Assuming that any specific metro area will continue to be on the same trajectory of COL (be that housing or anything else) and assigning "under-value" or "over-value" when economic factors deviate from that trajectory...is not utilizing critical thinking skills very well.

Companies announce layoffs or expansions/relocations, government contracts/projects get announced, and countless other factors can lead to a local shift in supply vs demand.

This is just a list to get clicks and rouse speculation/pontification on a current hot topic.

[Toxic Toast]

Originally Posted by TarHeelNick

Nah...still very subjective and short-sighted.

Economic indicators don't exist in a vacuum nor are they fixed.

Assuming that any specific metro area will continue to be on the same trajectory of COL (be that housing or anything else) and assigning "under-value" or "over-value" when economic factors deviate from that trajectory...is not utilizing critical thinking skills very well.

Companies announce layoffs or expansions/relocations, government contracts/projects get announced, and countless other factors can lead to a local shift in supply vs demand.

This is just a list to get clicks and rouse speculation/pontification on a current hot topic.

I get that you're a real estate agent and have a vested interest in the idea that the housing market isn't over-valued, especially a place like Raleigh, but I just don't think the methodology is that flawed.

In Indianapolis for example, property values have exceeded what anyone might have expected in the last couple of years. There are all sorts of reason why that may have happened, and there are all sorts of reasons why that may or may not continue. That's not what the originally linked article is trying to articulate. It is only saying that compared to long term market performance, some markets have seen prices increase faster. That is a statement of fact. Whether or not that will continue or why it happened isn't really the point.

[TarHeelNick]

Originally Posted by Toxic Toast

I get that you're a real estate agent and have a vested interest in the idea that the housing market isn't over-valued, especially a place like Raleigh, but I just don't think the methodology is that flawed.

In Indianapolis for example, property values have exceeded what anyone might have expected in the last couple of years. There are all sorts of reason why that may have happened, and there are all sorts of reasons why that may or may not continue. That's not what the originally linked article is trying to articulate. It is only saying that compared to long term market performance, some markets have seen prices increase faster. That is a statement of fact. Whether or not that will continue or why it happened isn't really the point.

Believe me when I say that, as a RE agent, I want NOTHING more than for this extreme market to ease significantly and quickly and for prices to stabilize/correct. Average price in the Triangle go back down to sub 300k!? Yes please!

A rapid appreciation in home values can be brought on by a variety of reasons; and it won't be equal in all places. It seems you agree with that. The thing is...that fact is not necessarily an indication of "over-valuation" in any particular market/area. The implication in this "over-valued" claim is that prices will eventually "deflate" to the "Expected Price". Saying as much is just sensationalized clickbait; especially trying to apply it as broadly as they are here.

[Toxic Toast]

Originally Posted by TarHeelNick

The implication in this "over-valued" claim is that prices will eventually "deflate" to the "Expected Price". Saying as much is just sensationalized clickbait; especially trying to apply it as broadly as they are here.

That doesn't seem to be the implication at all, it is just the conclusion you are jumping to.