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Georgia has become more liberal at this point, while North Carolina is a purple state that leans red. North Carolina goes red in presidential elections but constantly elects Democratic governors.
In regards to their economies, Georgia probably has an edge due to Atlanta but I can’t imagine North Carolina is drastically different. The Triangle + Triad + Charlotte = Greater Atlanta.
Atlanta is essentially the capital of the South and pushes Georgia ahead. North Carolina is no slouch either. Both of these states are becoming a lot more similar to each other as time goes by.
People often get caught up in "red state vs blue state" basing it on the most recent presidential election at the time; but the reality is far more nuanced than that.
Incidentally...in 2020 election, GA was "blue" by the smallest margin of all "blue" states.... and NC was "red" by the smallest margin of all "red states"
Georgia currently has 2 Democratic senators with one seat somewhat likely to "flip" this November
NC currently has 2 Republican senators with one seat somewhat likely to "flip" this November
GA has a Republican governor at the moment (decent chance that changes in November
NC has a Democratic governor currently and that has been the case for most of the state's history (current governor is half-way through his second term right now; no race this year)
The "blue" and "red" areas in both states are found in urban vs rural areas respectively (as is the case for the majority of the US). GA has its urban area (and the bulk of its population) concentrated around Atlanta; while NC has a more dispersed amount of "blue" areas in the Triangle, Charlotte, and Triad (and to a lesser degree; Asheville proper and Wilmington proper). that, population wise (for now) is a somewhat smaller share of the overall population of the state compared to that of Atlanta for GA (NC has the largest rural population of any state in the US...though just like the US as a whole; that share is dropping).
GA and NC are similar enough in demography though that I can't imagine someone seeking a particular ideological bent would have an appreciable better "chance" in either state as a whole. It's all about the specific community. Someone seeking a blue-leaning community comparing Orange County, NC to Cherokee County, GA is going to be much happier in the first than the latter. If they were comparing Alamance County, NC to Fulton County, GA.....it would go the other way.
Last edited by TarHeelNick; 06-12-2022 at 10:01 PM..
I think it’s likely the GOP gets wins in NC Senate and GA governor. Polls show a slight lead for both, and it’s unlikely this midterm will provide ideal ground for Dems to win pick’ems. Ga Senate seems the best hope for Dems. Before 2020, this answer about politics would have said NC was more purple. They stuck mostly Dem since ‘93 in the governor chair, and had elected a couple Democratic senators this century. 2020 however flipped the narrative. The question now is if it was simply a uniquely suburbia-repellant Trump that helped Dems carry the über-suburb that is Atlanta, or if the blip is really a trend.
While the demographics between the two states are understandably similar due to their locations in the Southeast, I think it's politically important to note that they are not the same. Georgia has a significantly larger Black population than North Carolina (32.6% vs 22.2%), and conversely a smaller white population (60.2% vs. 70.6%) according to the Census website.
Having those statistically significant disparities might suggest that the two states were further apart politically than they actually are, and likely signals a more conservative white electorate in GA vs. NC.
It remains to be seen if GA going blue in 2020 was a fluke or a trend for the state going forward, while NC has now established a pretty long history of being a very competitive and purple state for several election cycles.
At the state level, NC has been a more moderate state led by center-Democrats, over a longer period of time, and backlashed pretty hard against its former governor when he signed the bathroom bill into law. The state's (NC) general assembly was highly gerrymandered a decade ago and remains in firm control of the state's legislative branch, but its executive branch, AG, and courts are in control of Democrats.
With Atlanta, Charlotte, and Raleigh/Durham all growing like weeds, it remains to be seen if continual migration tilts the states bluer over time, or if they grow with disgruntled conservatives moving from dark blue cities/states, or a combination of both.
I still tend to think of NC as being the more purple state. It seems to swing a little more. GA seems to have sharper political polarization. I think the 2020 election was a little more of an aberation than a sign that GA is turning into a blue state. Looks like Kemp will win reelection and the Senate race will be tight in Nov. Republicans dominate the state government and have for a while. NC at least has a recent tradition of electing centrist Dem governors which moderate the state's policy outcomes somewhat.
Economically, both are strong. Atlanta has a more diversified corporate economy. But Charlotte and especially the Triangle have very strong skill heavy economies.
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