Gubernatorial Race 2018 (Atlanta, Dallas, Boston: to live in, cost of living, dangerous)

[CaliDreaming01]

Originally Posted by jero23

The racial breakdown is vaguely held information, but the number from 2017 there are approximately 3.3 million registered voters in Alabama. Of that approximately a million of them are non-white. However, Huntsville and Greater Birmingham are growing so those numbers are technically outdated. The diversity of Alabama isn't concentrated as it is Georgia with Metro Atlanta, but the 2 aforementioned urbanized regions are where the chunk of non-white demographics originate these days. Alabama is about a decade or 2 from being in the same boat as Georgia will be in within the next few years to a decade.

Wow Alabama is not far behind at all. Maybe it won't take as long for AL to turn purple since Democrats there seem to have caught on to a winning strategy. Or maybe the GOP will then start to change it's strategy.

[KingKanye]

How do you respond to a message in reputation?

Someone made a comment to me asking for my opinion but it was a reputation comment. I don't know how to reply to that.

[Forhall]

Originally Posted by AtlJan

Or you could look at a Kemp win as a win for Georgia. Pro-business, pro-growth, pro-rule-of-law. I don't see how a state would appear backwards because they voted for Trump, in fact, just the opposite. 30 states went for Trump in 2016. We were with the majority of the states. Trump didn't just win the southeast. He won virtually everything outside the most liberal enclaves--only places he lost were the west coast, northeast, MN, IL, CO and NM.

Except it's not. Georgia won't "win" when we start losing major companies, our film industry, and have boycotts from the business and entertainment community once Kemp gets in office and uses his power to attack minorities and gays.

[toll_booth]

Originally Posted by CaliDreaming01

I wasn't calling into question the polls themselves or the methodology the pollsters used, but there are limits to what a poll can do. Sometimes there are things happening in reality that the polls can not capture. For instance, for a long time, pollsters would only call landline phones, but would totally miss the growing segment of the population that only have cell phones. The polls are fine but some assumptions, though reasonable, behind them proved to be incorrect. I would expect a site like 538 to be able to point out things that might affect the predictive power of a poll.

We need to keep in mind two things here.

1. The Comey letter changed everything. It was factually demonstrated that not just the letter, but the way he announced it and then "retracted" it days before the election, swung a few undecided voters in key swing states. Many polls did not have time to capture this phenomenon.

2. People focus too much on the forecast mean and too little on the forecast variance of polls. People need to pay more attention to that "+/- 3% margin of error" that accompanies literally every poll. Polls suggest what is likely to happen. They cannot and will not ever guarantee what will happen, unless they are predicting the chances of death, taxes, or the Falcons' blowing a lead. ;)

None of the editors at 538 gave Trump a snowball's chance of winning right up to the time the race was called for him. They made similar missteps in the primaries. Everyone was pointing certain things out to them and they kept spitting out the same conventional wisdom. There is no way around the fact that they had egg on their face after 2016. Everything that site put out said, without qualification, that HRC would win and they were wrong. They did not even allow for the possibility that Trump could win.

That is factually inaccurate. I specifically remember that 538's probability of a tRump win was in the 20s-30s going into the final days of the campaigns. Even a 20% chance to win still means that you can win.

So when someone gives me a article from 538 and says that is why a Dem can't win in Georgia without any further analysis, sorry but I need a little more than that.

Don't take this personally, but the ignorance of improperly reading polls strikes me as a very similar ignorance to reading weather reports. All too often the weather forecast will say something like, "60% chance of rain," and too many people will falsely interpret that as "It will rain." Enhancing our critical thinking is vital in times such as these, and properly interpreting polls is one way we need to do that.

[PKCorey]

Originally Posted by KingKanye

How do you respond to a message in reputation?

Someone made a comment to me asking for my opinion but it was a reputation comment. I don't know how to reply to that.

Upper right corner, click the image beside the post count. You can respond there.

[jero23]

Originally Posted by CaliDreaming01

Wow Alabama is not far behind at all. Maybe it won't take as long for AL to turn purple since Democrats there seem to have caught on to a winning strategy. Or maybe the GOP will then start to change it's strategy.

It's likely the former rather than latter. There has been a record-breaking onslaught of black female Democrats running for offices and winning their Democratic primaries which has made headlines on MSNBC website, NBC News, and Essence magazine. I'm actually surprised there are not more black females running for statewide or prominent offices aside from Abrams here in Georgia considering so many black females across the rest of the South this year. Lucy McBath, the mother of the racially profile murder victim Jordan Davis, is the only black female that I know of that is actually running for Georgia 6th Congressional District.

[hilltop180]

Just about every poll I am seeing is now saying Kemp is going to win. I tend to agree with those polls. It seems like Kemp has really lit a fire with the Republican base much like Trump did. Still both candidates I have heard say they would sign the religious liberty bill which I think could cost Georgia millions. Like what Republicans can do to drive economic growth but wish they would let the bathroom bills go. As others mention, I really don't think Abrams has much of a chance in this election. This election seems like it will have 2 polar opposites - a rural conservative candidate, and a classic urban style Democrat. I live in an area with a large African American population and I can tell you I saw overwhelming turnout for the primary who I am assuming were there to support Abrams.

[-thomass]

Can we just 4 more years of Nathan the real Deal?

[ATLForr]

Originally Posted by Forhall

Except it's not. Georgia won't "win" when we start losing major companies, our film industry, and have boycotts from the business and entertainment community once Kemp gets in office and uses his power to attack minorities and gays.

Georgia will also not win when we have a Democrat in office. Look at California, it is a state controlled by Democrats. California’s high taxes are driving businesses and people out of the state to states that are heavily republican like Texas because Texas does not have so many government regulations that Democrats in California have implemented.

[toll_booth]

Originally Posted by ATLForr

Georgia will also not win when we have a Democrat in office. Look at California, it is a state controlled by Democrats. California’s high taxes are driving businesses and people out of the state to states that are heavily republican like Texas because Texas does not have so many government regulations that Democrats in California have implemented.

We are Georgia, not California. Or Kansas and their complete failure, for that matter. Stay on topic.