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What if in this new economy, the "Full Employment" unemployment rate is 8% to 9% (it used to be about 5%)? What if in the next 50 years, the unemployment rate never makes a sustained move below 8%? How do you see the economic and societal impacts for the US? Would people permanently leave the US just to find a job to survive?
What I worry about is that like mnay european copuntries that may mre and more be the case as people do not have any real skills in demand.Certainly the pure labor;no skills unemplyable is growing larger as such things as automation and computer requires less workers and laboe cost gains in per cenatge of prodcution cost in comparison.look next time you see a hole needing dug and you don't see many people being needed or with shovels as a example.
What if in this new economy, the "Full Employment" unemployment rate is 8% to 9% (it used to be about 5%)? What if in the next 50 years, the unemployment rate never makes a sustained move below 8%? How do you see the economic and societal impacts for the US? Would people permanently leave the US just to find a job to survive?
We just need to look at Europe to see the results.
Bottom line, people will adjust culturally to deal with it. Multiple generations of families will live together, families will be started later in life, fewer children will be born, people will demand more social services, the national debt will continue to skyrocket out of control and the gap between the "haves" and "have nots" will widen even further.
Would people permanently leave the US just to find a job to survive?
Yes. People that can afford to move will definitely run far away from the U.S.
The U.S. will become a second world nation and with the progressive devaluation of the dollar and the massive increases in oil, it may even become a third world nation.
Pray that China continue to puts up with our debt.
Bottom line ... no China...no America. They don't need us. This is a country who have trade agreements in different currencies with other countries. We are hurting them more than we are helping them.
In order to have "full employment" again will require either a shorter work week or a LOT fewer people working.
The math won't accommodate any other option.
A shorter work week but one that still pays enough that the median household can afford the median home and even the lower end of the spectrum pays enough to live decently would allow us to continue to ignore the population and resource scarcity issues for a few more decades.
A LOT fewer people in total would be even better than merely fewer people working.
As is evident now, the US is managing just fine with a lot fewer hours being worked (25Mil x 2000).
My suspicion is that we don't need what those additional hours might produce.
My suspicion is that the US would be a far better functioning enterprise with 210 Million than it is with 310 Million.
That isn't going to happen in thsi compoetive world economy. This isn't psot WWII amreica where we were the manufacturers since much of other countries were distroyed. They have fully recovered and gaining i abilty since they now have the facilities to compete.With less demand domestically from no credit bubble ;exports have to massively increase to make up evenh for half the loss.bascailly the people who had cash stil have it ans goig forward even more than before since they have not been spending.Markets like the chinese have massive demand from US dollars they control and future debt payments.
I have no doubt we'll get below 6% again, during the years following the November, 2016 election, since no matter who wins, it will represent a far more business friendly administration.
What if in this new economy, the "Full Employment" unemployment rate is 8% to 9% (it used to be about 5%)? What if in the next 50 years, the unemployment rate never makes a sustained move below 8%? How do you see the economic and societal impacts for the US? Would people permanently leave the US just to find a job to survive?
Keep in mind that the 8% - 9% rate is the fully 'adjusted' numbers.
Correct, that is what I'm implying as full employment in this hypothetical scenario.. that's we're close to it already.
U-1 is one group of people.
U-2 is a second group of people
U-3 is a third group of people
U-4 is U-3 plus an additional select group of people
U-5 is U-4 plus an additional select group of people
U-6 is U-5 plus an additional select group of people [so U-6 is summing U-3, U-4 and U-5, but does NOT include U-1 or U-2].
To see the honest unemployment rate add U-1, plus U-2, plus U-6.
But buckle your seat belt first.
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