Are people too paranoid about crime? We're irrational (stats, wisdom, Obama)
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Location: The western periphery of Terra Australis
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A lot of people seem inordinately concerned about being victims of crime, when statistically the risk in most places is quite low. I can understand if you live in East St. Louis, but for the most part, if you're sensible you most likely will not be targeted.
Also, I notice when there's a serial killer about there's a huge panic...it's irrational, because his activities do not make a blip on the murder rate. For instance, they'd be more scared of one Richard Ramirez than hearing that the murder rate has shot up from 5.0 per 100,000 to 8.0 per 100,000. People like to put a face to evil, e.g. Satan, Lucifer, Bush, Obama, Osama - whoever. That's why they are more effectively scared by individuals.
for the first 48 years of my life I lived exclusively in rural, suburban and small-town settings; never a victim of anything, save on the most petty and inconsequential level.
In the fall of 1997, I relocated to a small (pop 50,000), economically-troubled city along the southern Atlantic Seaboard, managing a chain hotel, one which had seen better days, for absentee foreign-born ownership.
Over the next 3 years, I was robbed twice (once at gunpoint), rendered unconscious in a strong-arm mugging, and a witness to more dope busts than I care to remember. The grand finale came one weekend when several of the locals started a fight with some people from a larger city -- who happened to have access to assault rifles. The little soiree' ended with one dead, one wounded, and three on the way to the state pen for visits of 30, 80 and 110 years, respectively, and a couple of bullet holes on the other side of the wall from my personal quarters.
Since returning to my native area, it's again been quiet. I have to hold with the wisdom that you're not likely to be a victim of crime unless you move to an area where it's rampant. But economic pressures sometimes impel us in that direction whether we like it or not.
Last edited by 2nd trick op; 03-26-2012 at 11:58 PM..
I suppose it depends on your economic background and where you live. And yes, the media has a huge impact on how we perceive the city near where we live, the next town over and the neighbor next door of a different national background. Ive never robbed anyone, yet I'm not white. Most white people don't experience this, but for me it was/is a reality. When I was younger, before there were a lot of "my kind" in the neighborhood I use to walk into a store and be followed by security simply because they thought I would steal. I still walk down the street where little old ladies cross the street to the other side when they see me coming.
A lot of people seem inordinately concerned about being victims of crime, when statistically the risk in most places is quite low. I can understand if you live in East St. Louis, but for the most part, if you're sensible you most likely will not be targeted.
Also, I notice when there's a serial killer about there's a huge panic...it's irrational, because his activities do not make a blip on the murder rate. For instance, they'd be more scared of one Richard Ramirez than hearing that the murder rate has shot up from 5.0 per 100,000 to 8.0 per 100,000. People like to put a face to evil, e.g. Satan, Lucifer, Bush, Obama, Osama - whoever. That's why they are more effectively scared by individuals.
My husband and I talk about this. When we leave our 13-year-old at home alone, I'm paranoid about locking doors. When I'm home by myself I don't worry about it much at all. He argues that statistically nothing will happen to her. I know that's true, but I argue that if you do a cost/benefit analysis of locking the doors, it's a no-brainer. Locking the doors is super easy and effective at keeping out opportunistic burglars and/or home invaders. Does that mean I'm paranoid? I don't know.
A lot of the anxiety people feel is fueled by the media. Not only do they report details of murders in the most gruesome way possible, but a murder will often spark a special series on "Home Invasions and How to Prevent Them" or "Unsolved Murders in Our Community." It makes you feel like evil is all around.
It's simply fear. The fear center of the brain activates well before rational centers of the brain, often seen in functional MRI's of the area. Once a person experiences, or is overwhelmed enough the mirror neurons of the brain fire while watching very fearful broadcasts or stories, then people start to become more fearful of everything. Same with witnessing minor events and using the slipperly slope fallacy on yourself.
It reminds me of the Osaka problem, something I struck me on No Reservations. He pointed out some people in Japan were terrified of Osaka because it had the highest incidence of murder in the country. The incidence of murder was 3 per year, where in New York is was ~6.3 per 100,000 people (they are comparable sizes). It's all relative.
To me, it comes down to the same thing as taking the birth control pill and it being 99% effective. That sounds good if you are in the 99% but in reality you still risk being that 1% so you have to weigh your options. I don't think people are too paranoid about crime. I can't believe the number of women who still leave their purse in the cart and walk away or worse yet, their baby! And those in the checkout line who open a wallet with probably a thousand dollars in cash while someone looks over their shoulder. You have to use commonsense and not be at one extreme or the other and I think most people are realistic.
Location: The western periphery of Terra Australis
24,544 posts, read 56,060,466 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by subsound
It's simply fear. The fear center of the brain activates well before rational centers of the brain, often seen in functional MRI's of the area. Once a person experiences, or is overwhelmed enough the mirror neurons of the brain fire while watching very fearful broadcasts or stories, then people start to become more fearful of everything. Same with witnessing minor events and using the slipperly slope fallacy on yourself.
It reminds me of the Osaka problem, something I struck me on No Reservations. He pointed out some people in Japan were terrified of Osaka because it had the highest incidence of murder in the country. The incidence of murder was 3 per year, where in New York is was ~6.3 per 100,000 people (they are comparable sizes). It's all relative.
Lol, terrified of Osaka? So they wouldn't set foot in it?
3 a year actually sounds high for Japanese standards. Australia has one of the lowest murder rates in the world yet it can feel like a dangerous place because of people acting all tough and macho and a lot of general dodginess.
Lol, terrified of Osaka? So they wouldn't set foot in it?
3 a year actually sounds high for Japanese standards. Australia has one of the lowest murder rates in the world yet it can feel like a dangerous place because of people acting all tough and macho and a lot of general dodginess.
lol... I had to look up Osaka's population -- about 3 million, sort of like Toronto's population. And only 3 people? Wow.
Seriously? 1 in a million is high?
If it was actually referring to the Metropolitan area, with even a few more million people then wow, that's practically unbelievable!
What's it like for Australia? I have a hard time visualizing the X in 100, 000 stats off the top of my head (I have to convert it in my head to imagining how many murders are happening in a city of say 3 million, 5 million etc.), but I think for Canadian cities it could be 2- 3 per 100 000 if I recall correctly.
Actually you are right about sometimes being a bit too paranoid since for every X in 100, 000 stat, car accidents, heart attacks etc. kill more by quite a lot I bet, but as you say you can "put a face" on a serial killer to scare yourself but it's harder to do so with the risk of being struck by a bus as a pedestrian, or suffering a stroke -- at least in most peoples' mind's eye when it comes to these other kinds of life risks.
Location: The western periphery of Terra Australis
24,544 posts, read 56,060,466 times
Reputation: 11862
Quote:
Originally Posted by Stumbler.
lol... I had to look up Osaka's population -- about 3 million, sort of like Toronto's population. And only 3 people? Wow.
Seriously? 1 in a million is high?
If it was actually referring to the Metropolitan area, with even a few more million people then wow, that's practically unbelievable!
What's it like for Australia? I have a hard time visualizing the X in 100, 000 stats off the top of my head (I have to convert it in my head to imagining how many murders are happening in a city of say 3 million, 5 million etc.), but I think for Canadian cities it could be 2- 3 per 100 000 if I recall correctly.
Actually you are right about sometimes being a bit too paranoid since for every X in 100, 000 stat, car accidents, heart attacks etc. kill more by quite a lot I bet, but as you say you can "put a face" on a serial killer to scare yourself but it's harder to do so with the risk of being struck by a bus as a pedestrian, or suffering a stroke -- at least in most peoples' mind's eye when it comes to these other kinds of life risks.
Sorry I meant 3 per 100,000 per year.
So if Osaka has 10 million people that's 3 x 100 = 300 murders, sounds a lot more on paper, but 10 million is a big city. Japan's overall rate if I recall is below 1, so about a third of Osaka's, but 3.0 per 100k is low by American standards (the national average being about 5.6) and low by world standards.
A lot of people seem inordinately concerned about being victims of crime, when statistically the risk in most places is quite low. I can understand if you live in East St. Louis, but for the most part, if you're sensible you most likely will not be targeted.
Also, I notice when there's a serial killer about there's a huge panic...it's irrational, because his activities do not make a blip on the murder rate. For instance, they'd be more scared of one Richard Ramirez than hearing that the murder rate has shot up from 5.0 per 100,000 to 8.0 per 100,000. People like to put a face to evil, e.g. Satan, Lucifer, Bush, Obama, Osama - whoever. That's why they are more effectively scared by individuals.
I have but one thought.
I think that "crime" cannot occur in your neck of the woods is stupid.
I believe CRIME can occur anywhere by anyone pushed to the brink, mental illness, money and other motives. CRIME occurs anywhere, there is no real safe place.
Being aware and careful is one's best bet hypervigilance=chaos
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So they wouldn't set foot in it?
