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Sorry, title should have read: What is needed to change a regime?
There was the Arab Spring and what followed there and now the Ukraine.
It seems that all that is required now is access to technology and the gathering of a few hundred thousand to effect the toppling of a government. I am not passing or even offering any judgment on the validity of what is happening in the Ukraine but the populations of Ukraine and indeed, other countries where regime change is taking place are much larger than the number of people it takes to simply overthrown the in place government.
Western governments should be cautious because the models being used can be applied there as well. We all see and read the stories of those opposing the current and displaced government but rarely hear from the other side. It seems that the idea of "so long as it happens there" and NIMBY apply, everything is good.
When we start to pick and choose which sovereignty we support, it could become a dangerous road to travel down.
Where does this type of regime change end because as we've seen in Egypt, a tit-for-tat can quickly ensue and a country can be set back decades within a few months or a year of upheaval?
Another issue: In the USA we covet the 2nd amendment as the guarantor of all other rights. Regardless of which side of the current arguments you believe, it does not seem that the access to firearms was required in the Ukraine but access to communications was more important. I am not trying to start a debate that firearms ownership prevents anything but as with most things, single events aren't easily addressed through firearms use or ownership. Once the single events converge to unbearable conditions, firearms seem to not be the answer, evidenced in the Ukraine. It does appear that the means to change a regime can be accomplished with little more than mobile phones, large numbers of like minded people and sporadic use of force.
Please, don't.
Leave Ukraine alone. Poor country suffered enough in its history from takers from all over the world.
It's basic well worked by the book coupe'd'etat. You rightfully noticed it's exactly same screenplay as in Arab countries. Those in real power simply play their games where THEY want it. Firearms, or not, it's hands for hire doing paid for job. Like they did during Orange Revolution in the same country. Or 911 here.
Remember, by their fruits will we judge the tree. Sit, wait, and the true colors will show themselves.
I am more amazed, how stubbornly sheeple keep falling for propaganda slogans.
Please, don't.
Leave Ukraine alone. Poor country suffered enough in its history from takers from all over the world.
It's basic well worked by the book coupe'd'etat. You rightfully noticed it's exactly same screenplay as in Arab countries. Those in real power simply play their games where THEY want it. Firearms, or not, it's hands for hire doing paid for job. Like they did during Orange Revolution in the same country. Or 911 here.
Remember, by their fruits will we judge the tree. Sit, wait, and the true colors will show themselves.
I am more amazed, how stubbornly sheeple keep falling for propaganda slogans.
Ukraine can't be left alone, it is part of the world. It is however, also an example of certain systems in use not directly tied to the middle east. When used as an example, there come with it a certain reference which those in western cultures (Europe and the USA) can form a reference to which is often far more difficult than when considering middle east countries.
What remains to be seen is if what happens in the Ukraine exposes an alternate method of regime change or the securing and guaranteeing of rights through means other than many believe is the final answer.
While technology/social-media has acted as a helpful tool in regime change in recent days, I do not think it is a "cause" for regime change. Rather, I believe the human condition -- with or without the technology and with or without guns -- is really the alpha and the omega when it comes to regime change. Nothing else really matters if the people themselves do not have the will to enact change.
There are three important similarities shared by all the countries that have undergone recent regime changes:
1) They have relatively modest populations, counted in the tens of million of inhabitants (Egypt being the largest, at 88 million can almost be considered an outlier, since the next largest is Ukraine at roughly half that population). Not too big but not too small.
2) Economically, all these nations are what could be called middle-income nations, where their GDP per capita does not make them among the poorest of countries nor among the wealthy either. All of them have languished some place in the middle for a long time as well, ranking around 100 on a list of roughly 200 nations.
3) All of these nations have stark ethnic/religious/political divides between two and only two groups that dominate the ethnic/religious/political landscape (shia vs sunni in many Muslim states, Christian vs Muslim in Syria, Russian vs. Ukrainian in the Ukraine)
Its too small a sample set to draw too many strong conclusions about them, but I do wonder if these points, roughly, are the primal recipe for their recent regime changes -- a strong polemical social divide between two dominant groups seems to happen more often in modestly populated nations -- larger national populations tend to have many more factions and the complexity makes a polemical stand-off difficult, and smaller countries tend to remain far more homogeneous. Combine the polemical situation with just enough economic stress (i.e. relatively poor when one compares their standard of living to that found in much of the rest of the modern world, but not so poor that people are without enough resources to fund their revolutionary desires) and relatively long-term economic stagnation and I can imagine that I would personally be extremely discontent under those conditions too.
Tunisia -- the country credited with starting the Arab spring revolts -- is an outlier all around to this hypothesis. Its really quite small -- only 10 million -- with a relatively homogeneous population (97% from the same religious/ethnic background) and a bit on the poorer side than the others. As a result (and I believe a point in support of my hypothesis) out of all the revolutions that have taken place over the past few years, Tunisia was the only country that actually recovered from their internal turmoil without languishing in instability and suffering, and emerge from the other side with a new system of governance. And perhaps its too soon to include Ukraine in this analysis as well...
Anyway, that's my thoughts. Feel free to criticize it mercilessly
Ukraine can't be left alone, it is part of the world. It is however, also an example of certain systems in use not directly tied to the middle east. When used as an example, there come with it a certain reference which those in western cultures (Europe and the USA) can form a reference to which is often far more difficult than when considering middle east countries.
What remains to be seen is if what happens in the Ukraine exposes an alternate method of regime change or the securing and guaranteeing of rights through means other than many believe is the final answer.
Looking at the screen, you are right.
Speaking from the knowledge of the country history, and 38 years real life experience there - leave it alone.
As in - it suffered enough to be used as a chew gum for conversation on topics that no one really has any control over, topics that are decided, and done, by those who have real power.
I simply have mercy in my heart for Ukraine. it's been raped too many times, so I respond gingerly every time situations like this come up.
I hope, I am understood.
All regime changes of the recent have one thing in common: large chunk of population believes that it's possible to recreate Western production-consumption social patterns (with local flavor) provided better "elites" and belonging to the proper international blocks.
None of the regime changes of the recent years resulted in anything remotely resembling a revolution, not even sizable property redistribution occurred. Thus, embedding the idea about superiority of the Western consumer paradise is a necessary precondition for the regime change. And the ideas like that just don't grow amid deserts or Ukrainian steppes on their own. It's very, very ironic, by the very same belief in the superiority of consumer capitalism created the very same greedy "elites" hungry consumer masses want to shuffle differently. After all, splitting formerly common property/mineral resource to jump start market economies is never trivial or just.
Last edited by RememberMee; 02-28-2014 at 01:22 PM..
In America, a regime change is fairly innocuous. In 2008, Americans thought they had undergone a regime change because few had the mind to pay any real attention in 2000 and what that year's 'election' proved beyond a doubt: They have no actual political representation. Certainly the SCOTUS agreed when they declared corporations were people too, more powerful than demographics and the numbers within.
It is far too late for that 10 PM pot and pan banging to happen in America. Besides, how do you make discontent known by banging fast food wrappers and microwaveable trays together? Make a .gif and post it on the FB wall?
The Ukrainians are p.o'd as well they should be. Other than a good part of the country still angry at being assimilated into the Soviet Union so long ago, they had to endure all that followed plus the disaster of Chernobyl, which marked the official start of the disintegration of the USSR and the Eastern Bloc. Now they must grovel for heat in the winter while begging to be let into the E.U. (which will not happen for obvious reasons). Their elected politicians are poisoned or imprisoned or picked for them.
So... It will be interesting to watch and see what escalates and where. Remember, there must always be outside enemies to an empire, West or East and faceless terrorists just don't make for exciting, sustainable propaganda tools for very long.
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just a hypothesis....
