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I've given up trying to explain to people here that things are not hunky dory in this country. Just a waste of time IMO, just gotta wait til that generation dies off and hope the Millennials don't move right when they get older.
I've given up trying to explain to people here that things are not hunky dory in this country. Just a waste of time IMO, just gotta wait til that generation dies off and hope the Millennials don't move right when they get older.
I've given up trying to explain to people here that things are not hunky dory in this country. Just a waste of time IMO, just gotta wait til that generation dies off and hope the Millennials don't move right when they get older.
I doubt they will. Contrary to popular belief people tend to hold their political beliefs built in the 20s throughout their lives, not change them. The world may change around them making them "seem conservative" but they're really not. Ie: someone who voted for Clinton in 92 may not be all that gung-ho about same-sex marriage today which makes that person seem more conservative than they were in their youth - they still have the same basic values - it's just that society has changed faster than them.
People forget that Clinton in 92 did really well with the over 65 group that was the last of the FDR generation, they were pushing 80 at that point. He won youth but not by much and in part because Perot split them. Reagan and Bush I actually did well with under 30 people - it's been 30 years they're now in their 50s. Throughout the 1980s Republican victories were driven by young people. It was the older ones who pined for JFK and FDR.
The current over 65 group are the silents - they were kind of people who voted for Nixon, Ford, Reagan in their 20s and 30s in high numbers. We're going to see a massive drop off in Republican support when they cycle out - the boomers always were and are split pretty well 50/50. They may lean a little more Republican now but nowhere near to the level the Silents do.
To the extent the adage that people grow more conservative as they get older, it's not the individuals changing but it may be that conservative youth do not turn out in high numbers and start doing so when they age.
I doubt they will. Contrary to popular belief people tend to hold their political beliefs built in the 20s throughout their lives, not change them. The world may change around them making them "seem conservative" but they're really not. Ie: someone who voted for Clinton in 92 may not be all that gung-ho about same-sex marriage today which makes that person seem more conservative than they were in their youth - they still have the same basic values - it's just that society has changed faster than them.
People forget that Clinton in 92 did really well with the over 65 group that was the last of the FDR generation, they were pushing 80 at that point. He won youth but not by much and in part because Perot split them. Reagan and Bush I actually did well with under 30 people - it's been 30 years they're now in their 50s. Throughout the 1980s Republican victories were driven by young people. It was the older ones who pined for JFK and FDR.
The current over 65 group are the silents - they were kind of people who voted for Nixon, Ford, Reagan in their 20s and 30s in high numbers. We're going to see a massive drop off in Republican support when they cycle out - the boomers always were and are split pretty well 50/50. They may lean a little more Republican now but nowhere near to the level the Silents do.
To the extent the adage that people grow more conservative as they get older, it's not the individuals changing but it may be that conservative youth do not turn out in high numbers and start doing so when they age.
I don't think it's time yet to predict how the young generation is going to lean toward. It will be greatly influenced by how good the economy is.
I also disagree with the view that people stay loyal to their political beliefs formed in college and their 20s. The boomer generation went through the 60s, but many of them have since moved on. When you are young, you haven't experienced much yet, and you haven't met enough terrible people, you are easy to shape by rhetoric and theoretical thinking, especially when you aren't paying mortgage and competing with lots of people. As people grow older, they go through not just one change, but many changes. Much of this is decided by their personal experience and observations, so it can vary a great deal. Whether they stay with their views is going to be about it and how their economic status changes. Those who have t changed their poltiical views tend to be the people who didn't experience drastic personal economic changes. They were middle class, got a job, got married, voted democratic, supported market capitalism and welfare, and they did fine. of course, these people had the luxury to stay with the same principles developed when they were young. But I think it's a mistake to assume that millenials will inherit boomers principles. Those principles have a strong generational mark.
Moreover, the young today and tomorrow are significantly different in demographics. Much of these principles have been from white liberal Americans, but their brand of thinking isn't the prevailing consensus among people of diverse groups. Mostly, rising minority groups are going to re write America's thinking, with their own cultures, instead of converging onto what white liberals left behind.
It's kind of interesting how things have changed though. In 1910, Republican president William Taft advocated for 2-3 months of vacation for every full time worker in order to improve health, family connections and productivity as he said. And he wasn't even a particularly progressive republican at the time.
I don't think it's time yet to predict how the young generation is going to lean toward. It will be greatly influenced by how good the economy is.
I also disagree with the view that people stay loyal to their political beliefs formed in college and their 20s. The boomer generation went through the 60s, but many of them have since moved on. When you are young, you haven't experienced much yet, and you haven't met enough terrible people, you are easy to shape by rhetoric and theoretical thinking, especially when you aren't paying mortgage and competing with lots of people.
The higher likelihood is that those people who are partying, etc... are not voting and so never thought about "where they stood." Youth turnout is abominably low, about 1 in 3 eligible voters at best turn out among that group even in presidential years, so it's hard to generalize about them.
I question how much "growing up" changes people. As you said, unless there is some sort of traumatic event or life-change, I doubt taking on a mortgage is going to magically turn a liberal into a conservative.
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As people grow older, they go through not just one change, but many changes. Much of this is decided by their personal experience and observations, so it can vary a great deal. Whether they stay with their views is going to be about it and how their economic status changes. Those who have t changed their poltiical views tend to be the people who didn't experience drastic personal economic changes. They were middle class, got a job, got married, voted democratic, supported market capitalism and welfare, and they did fine. of course, these people had the luxury to stay with the same principles developed when they were young. But I think it's a mistake to assume that millenials will inherit boomers principles. Those principles have a strong generational mark.
Yes but you don't change who you are and you don't change your fundamental psychology. We're getting more and more research that shows personality type and psychology significantly influence political lean - not every political choice, but their leaning. Psychological research has shown that you build the person you become in your teens and 20s and the experiences you have in those years are the most powerful. This is true in different countries since I've seen research that looks at the UK and Canada as well as the U.S.
Marketers know that and are the ones whose money has driven the research - if they can get a person to build loyalty to a brand in the teens and 20s - that person will, more likely than not, continue to favor that brand and the qualities associated with it their whole life, why do you think they market so hard to that segment?
Unfortunately there are no studies that follow individuals around for 50 years to discover if they really do go through a change - but we do have studies that show a cohort effect that carries over as that cohort ages. If the old adage of "grow older - grow more conservative" was true, we should see the over 65 group from every era vote for the more conservative choice and we don't see that at all.
The higher likelihood is that those people who are partying, etc... are not voting and so never thought about "where they stood." Youth turnout is aboinally low, about 1 in 3 eligible voters at best turn out among that group even in presidential years, so it's hard to generalize about them.
Yes but you don't change who you are and you don't change your fundamental psychology. We're getting more and more research that shows personality type and psychology significantly influence political lean - not every political choice, but their leaning. This is true in different countries since I've seen research that looks at the UK and Canada as well as the U.S.
Unfortunately there are no studies that follow individuals around for 50 years to discover if they really do go through a change - but we do have studies that show a cohort effect that carries over as that cohort ages. If the old adage of "grow older - grow more conservative" was true, we should see the over 65 group from every era vote for the more conservative choice and we don't see that at all.
There certainly is a cohort effect,and that is generational politics. Boomers and a cohort effect. I dont find them very inspirational today.
Young people don't care about these things much. But that doesn't mean they are going to be more liberal.
Leanings can change, especially when the person transitions from being young and naive and told about things, to actually observing and gaining life experience. Once that life experience and observations are made, then changes are less likely unless something significant happens.
But I don't think values formed before young people have a life are that strong to stay around. You have to think by yourself. You are the most influenced by your experience and personal observations.
The millenial generation isn't going to be one same turn. Instead, they are turning in all directions, as theirs disparity grows and their cultural differences have never been greater than any previous generation. A big trend is actually fiscal conservatism and social liberalism. I'm generally socially liberal and fiscally conservative.
This is a natural result of a racially diverse society. In this type of society, you tolerate more thing socially and you have to given the breakdown of social fabric. But you also develop more Balkanization and distrust of others, who are of very different socioeconomic and cultural backgrounds. While they may do things they please in their households, you don't have to pay for it. This is where fiscal conservatism comes in. The two are actually not contradictory but complimentary. This is what our business community wanted and got.
And yet, at the end of the day, every single american has the opportunity tter themselves. But they have to choose to do so. I see that as the main problem. At that end of the day people are too content to take their federal aid money, or play video games, or smoke their pot rather better themselves.
Yep! Came from a poor single parent family, and worked my azz off to escape poverty and into the middle class, as did my mom and 5 siblings. All are middle class and above now. Any body can do it, in my family it was all through education except one sister who married well.
Yep! Came from a poor single parent family, and worked my azz off to escape poverty and into the middle class, as did my mom and 5 siblings. All are middle class and above now. Any body can do it, in my family it was all through education except one sister who married well.
The idea that its a transmission of values is playing the "blame the victim" game. Its too convenient. Its like saying the rich are rich because they morally deserve it.
But lets talk about family values. Compare:
Family A, 200K income, father works, mom stays at home. Values are easy. Mom helps with homework, family life is often pretty good.
Family B, 40K income, father and mother work, kid is raised by childcare, and rarely see's parents, no one helps with homework. Family life is pretty barren.
The values are there because the cash is there.
Can some poor folks manage it? Sure! But its 100X harder.
One of the largest indicators of poverty especially inter-generational is unwed motherhood and or having children before completing high school or even better college and armed with employment.
If you look at who is not moving up and where they are in most households you find the same circumstances; unwed mothers and youth pregnancy. So yes it is a "class" and "values" issue.
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