One day most of the jobs will be automated. Then what? (employment, salary)
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Within a very short time all vehicles will drive themselves.
Anyone with any personal exposure to attempts at automating rail traffic control, where the number of movements and routing options are much smaller, to say nothing of external factors such as weather, can attest that while many enhancements can be added in the name of safety, total start-to-finish automation of motor vehicle operation is a long way off, if possible at all.
And much as we might wish for it, programming a machine to perform the tasks and deal with the problems which arise among the dysfunctional (in a nursing home or similar institution, for example) is an impossibility.
The dreamers who prattle about "self-driving cars" over at the Urban Planning and similar forms never pay much attention to the concept of how much power this system would put into the hands of the Big Brother/Sister they apparently admire and trust; one wonders how quickly they will advocate euthanasia once similar frustrations crop up in the venue of personal care.
Last edited by 2nd trick op; 11-14-2015 at 10:54 PM..
Someone's got to fix those machines.....we use lots of machines at work...they break, frequently!
In the near future the machines will self repair or will be serviced by other robots.
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As far as giving everyone "enough to get buy"....that's stupid as hell....we would all sit around like bumps on a log....If I work my ass off, I want to be paid for that....if you don't...too bad.
If there is massive unemployment and nothing is done you will have a revolution. In fact in a capitalistic economy social services are there to prevent a revolution.
Being lazy is part of being greedy----------something for nothing. Hopefully in an advanced society everybody has a work ethic.
Anyone with any personal exposure to attempts at automating rail traffic control, where the number of movements and routing options are much smaller, to say nothing of external factors such as weather, can attest that while many enhancements can be added in the name of safety, total start-to-finish automation is a long way off, if possible at all.
At this time in history we are still in a very primitive stage of technological development, however, this will be easy in the near future.
If you go back to the 19th century and tell people one day they will have Internet, running water, electricity, TV, phones, GPS, etc they would say the same thing you are saying.
I doubt this will occur since you can sue auto manufacturers for far less then technological malfunctions, just one class action lawsuit for a pile up would be devastating. Or for cars driving of of roads etc.
Case in point, they are not showing how cars deal with pot holes, they're not showing how cars deal with flaggers, or how they would maneuver in the event of a fallen tree limb etc. All of those situations are heavy negligence lawsuits for auto manufacturers claiming their cars are driver-less.
A few short years? Probably never.
See the post above.
Not trying to achieve technological progress because of lawyers is illogical.
I think it is indeed possible that a significant percent of the population will be unemployed permanently. While it might be easy to say those who work pay for those who don't, it's not going to be easy in reality.
The permanently unemployed will make demands and trouble. They will be disruptive and unreasonable in their demands, which causes the haves to be cautious if not resentful. Given the percentages, it creates basically a highly divided society.
Our best bet is that technology will create more jobs and the shifting of jobs will enable people to attain what they want.
Someone's got to fix those machines.....we use lots of machines at work...they break, frequently!
The problem becomes when the machines are fixing the machines. You can't physically drive a car better than a machine can, you can't physically perform surgery more precisely than a machine. The only thing that separates us from machines is intelligence and that gap is going to close over the coming decades.
In the late 90's Deep Blue defeated Gary Kasparov in a chess game, this is one pivotal point. At the time it was considered a pretty big event but in reality it's not that special at least in the context of AI. Computers are fantastic at doing calculations and when you boil it down chess is just a game of math. Any computer going back to the first ones could have beaten the greatest chess players however it might of taken them years to calculate their next move. What improved was the speed, using brute force Deep Blue could simply calculate every possible move in the allotted time. It's basically a glorified calculator following precise directions and it's going to be right every time.
If you ask any kid "What is the color or Dorthy's shoes?" as long as they are familiar with the story they can answer "Ruby Red." To answer that question requires knowledge but more importantly it requires intelligence. While deep blue might be able to make trillions of mathematical calculations per second it's isn't going to be able answer this simple question most kids would know the answer too. Once you move beyond the realm of math unless you specifically told it what the answer is it won't have any clue.
There isn't some giant database in Deep Blue that said 1+1=2, it would figure it out by itself by adding 1+1. For AI to be workable it has to be able to do the same thing and figure out what the color of Dorothy's shoes are. Recent developments like Watson that was on Jeopardy are able to accomplish this task by mimicking human intelligence. They have to "think" and unlike Deep Blue they can even be wrong.
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As far as giving everyone "enough to get buy"....that's stupid as hell....we would all sit around like bumps on a log....If I work my ass off, I want to be paid for that....if you don't...too bad.
The issue is when you lose your job to a robot and your employer has no one to sell anything too becsue no one has any money to pay for it.
At this time in history we are still in a very primitive stage of technological development, however, this will be easy in the near future.
If you go back to the 19th century and tell people one day they will have Internet, running water, electricity, TV, phones, GPS, etc they would say the same thing you are saying.
A self driving car is just around the corner.
The parallels are not the same; just as a "self-driving car" can't distinguish between an object, vs a small child in its path, a machine can't hand-feed and toilet an individual so dysfunctional as to be able to articulate his/her own needs.
The dreamers have been fed a pack of distortions by entertainment media who have little interest in the cold truth, and are leading them to expect far too much.
I doubt this will occur since you can sue auto manufacturers for far less then technological malfunctions, just one class action lawsuit for a pile up would be devastating. Or for cars driving of of roads etc.
Speed, efficiency and safety would all improve with computer driven cars. They are simply able to react much faster. When a kid runs out in the road it would be able to brake or safely maneuver much faster than you ever will be able too.
It will raise some interesting ethical questions, e.g. if the choice is running the car into a tree or hitting the kid.
And much as we might wish for it, programming a machine to perform the tasks and deal with the problems which arise among the dysfunctional (in a nursing home or similar institution, for example) is an impossibility.
You are right, you cannot program the machine precisely. It needs to be able to figure it out by itself and learn from it's mistakes. This is what Watson does, that type of tech is just going to improve and I would suggest rapidly improve.
At this time in history we are still in a very primitive stage of technological development, however, this will be easy in the near future.
I like to compare it to the industrial revolution, at this point we are at the stage of the first cars more than 100 years ago. This along with bio engineering will be the second industrial revolution this century. When I say bio engineering I'm talking about synthesizing natural things, for example there is a spider that has a strand that pound for pound is the strangest known strand in the world exceeding anything we can produce by many magnitudes.
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A self driving car is just around the corner.
I don't know if it's right around the corner, perhaps 10 or 20 years. There is a lot of hurdles to overcome and many of them are not directly related to the technology itself.
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