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The problem becomes when the machines are fixing the machines. You can't physically drive a car better than a machine can, you can't physically perform surgery more precisely than a machine. The only thing that separates us from machines is intelligence and that gap is going to close over the coming decades.
In the late 90's Deep Blue defeated Gary Kasparov in a chess game, this is one pivotal point. At the time it was considered a pretty big event but in reality it's not that special at least in the context of AI. Computers are fantastic at doing calculations and when you boil it down chess is just a game of math. Any computer going back to the first ones could have beaten the greatest chess players however it might of taken them years to calculate their next move. What improved was the speed, using brute force Deep Blue could simply calculate every possible move in the allotted time. It's basically a glorified calculator following precise directions and it's going to be right every time.
If you ask any kid "What is the color or Dorthy's shoes?" as long as they are familiar with the story they can answer "Ruby Red." To answer that question requires knowledge but more importantly it requires intelligence. While deep blue might be able to make trillions of mathematical calculations per second it's isn't going to be able answer this simple question most kids would know the answer too. Once you move beyond the realm of math unless you specifically told it what the answer is it won't have any clue.
There isn't some giant database in Deep Blue that said 1+1=2, it would figure it out by itself by adding 1+1. For AI to be workable it has to be able to do the same thing and figure out what the color of Dorothy's shoes are. Recent developments like Watson that was on Jeopardy are able to accomplish this task by mimicking human intelligence. They have to "think" and unlike Deep Blue they can even be wrong.
The issue is when you lose your job to a robot and your employer has no one to sell anything too becsue no one has any money to pay for it.
Actually if you google the color of Dorothy's shoes the first answer is Ruby. There is then the alternative answer of silver. There is then the discussion of the dual answers. A reasonable program will sort that faster than you can write the question.
I see no significant impediment to autonomous automobiles. Relatively easy problem. The answer in general is slow down or stop if in doubt. Very seldom fails. The problem is to get the sensors both good and cheap enough...a not impossible problem. Google appears to believe a LIDAR is need. Tesla does not. We shall see.
I think countries have two options. You can either start sterilizing/euthanizing people or raise everyone's' standard of living. Either way the population growth rate needs to be reduced to a more controllable level so there there are not too many idle hands capable of causing problems.
With everything automated, food can be grown and brought to market. Labor costs would go down to 0 but there would still be a cost for raw materials. if they are mined and the robots automatically built even the cost of construction of buildings would approach zero.
with all the basic necessities taken care of, there would be no need to have a base pay and society would eventually become truly cashless.
elimination of the wealthy would ensue.
In star trek, the people are said to "work for the greater good" and I would guess the humans would facilitate planning and communication and be trained to perform tasks that can't be automated.
Not sure if governing could be automated but once a financial incentive is removed from governing, things will greatly improve for everyone.
Within a very short time all vehicles will drive themselves. It is expected that they will be safer and the rate of motor vehicle accidents will dramatically go down. This create massive unemployment among taxi and truck drivers. In Vancouver the city subway system has no human drivers. And do not forget the self checkout registers in most stores.
Will there be a universal salary for people whether they work or not?
We're already in a welfare state so there already is. That is only going to increase. If we went full on with automation, only 20 percent of us would be working. Those who did work would be severely taxed. They might even go as far as to increase taxes on businesses in order to support those who weren't working, if that is even possible. Who knows what it would be like.
It would eventually lead to a reduction in population, which is what some people want anyway.
Within a very short time all vehicles will drive themselves. It is expected that they will be safer and the rate of motor vehicle accidents will dramatically go down. This create massive unemployment among taxi and truck drivers. In Vancouver the city subway system has no human drivers. And do not forget the self checkout registers in most stores.
Will there be a universal salary for people whether they work or not?
What is scary is that White Collar jobs can also be automated. Writers, artists, doctors, nurses, lawyers, engineers. There are no limits, and no one's job is safe. You'll have computer programmers designing the systems that do everything, and computer operators maintaining and manipulating the systems that do everything. On some level those are the only two jobs that exist anyway but that will become even more apparent over the next few decades.
What is scary is that White Collar jobs can also be automated. Writers, artists, doctors, nurses, lawyers, engineers. There are no limits, and no one's job is safe. You'll have computer programmers designing the systems that do everything, and computer operators maintaining and manipulating the systems that do everything. On some level those are the only two jobs that exist anyway but that will become even more apparent over the next few decades.
Physicians are easy to replace. Robotic surgery is already a reality.
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