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I can't say how much I disagree with the OP's position. Not sure if he's leaning toward WW III happening within our lifetimes but he doesn't seem to rule it out. The West not having the stomach to fight? Ridiculous. Considering Western countries aren't directly threatened by the conflicts in the areas where they're sending their troops, I'd say the West has an extraordinary stomach to fight in conflicts halfway around the world. As far as the West losing if the "gloves come off", I've never heard of a more absurd statement. The West is decades ahead in military technology compared to their current enemies, which are largely scattered "terrorist" groups that may or may not have support from third world states. Like I said, the West definitely has the stomach to fight, witness the multi-billion dollar military industrial complex. And don't even get me started about those that think we may go to war with China. China doesn't want war. Tell me, when was the last time China went to war. The last I can think of is border war with Vietnam in 1979. Obviously the OP has no idea what a true "World War" really entails. I agree with the poster "2nd trick op", in that the days of wars between large masses of troops are likely over and future wars will be like what we're seeing now, scattered groups who while dangerous, in the grand scheme of things don't even hold a candle to our adversaries in the previous World Wars.
The fate of the masses does not depend from the stomach, but powerful groups's obscure will, it is true the Western, l mean the Anglo-American armament is 20 years ahead from others, but the hidden banking system power is even more ahead
There will not be a WWIII. We toyed with the idea during the Cold War, and realised that it would mean the end of humanity. On the contrary, modern warfare has reverted from large-scale onslaughts to asymmretric warfare, proxy wars, cyber wars and to an evolution in small mobile warfare. Afghanistan and Iraq II have shown that large military occupation doesn't solve anything, quite the contrary. Even the UN/NATO air intervention against Ghaddafi's Libya was a failure in the end as the country fell into chaos.
To add, modern technological warfare in this globalised world has made wars terribly expensive. Only the US, China and India can afford a large-scale war. And maybe North Korea, but we know that country is a lost cause anyway. Russia cannot afford a WWIII, neither does Britain, France or Germany. Cynically you could say that France and Britain have a very affordable life insurance in their nuclear deterrent, as a general mobilisation would simply kill the economy even in conventional warfare.
Though it's internationally not that well known, the French intervention in Mali in 2013 was a huge success applying these new strategies. Massive air and artillery power with very limited boots on the ground, with Malian forces taking territory resulted in the total demise of the Malian rebel Al-Qaida with 13 Frenchmen killed. Then the French left and let the Malians to rebuild their country in their own way, not imposing 'superior western democracy'.
The unlawful annexation of Crimea by Russia is another prime example of contemporary warfare. A massive propaganda media campaign, cyber warfare, and 'alien' shock troops taking control of all pivotal infrastructural functions in a blitzkrieg fashion. This is modern warfare, not tens of divisions fighting each other in Kursk or at Iwo Jima.
The only real global type of war possible at this point is a quickly-escalating confrontation that goes nuclear. The large-scale land conflicts are no longer plausible means of confrontation.
PS:
The much-touted Democratic Peace Theory only works is if every democracy-on-democracy war (War of 1812, American Civil War, Spanish-American War, UK v. Finland during World War II, etc.) is explained away by insisting that one or the other states wasn't a 'real' democracy. In the end, the definition of a democracy becomes so stringent that there are almost no historical examples of them existing and, well, duh-- if there are almost no countries to define as democracies, than that small number of states is unlike to be involved in an exclusive war.
It's worth noting that in his excellent book The Better Angels of our Nature: Why Violence has Declined, Steven Pinker demonstrates that it is trade, to which democratic states trend, that has made military conflicts less likely (not non-existent) between democracies, not the democratic electoral process itself.
The world has a lot of nukes in a lot of countries. What happens if a single terrorist group attains a nuke and detonates it in Israel? Moscow? London? Paris? Washington DC? New York City?
There are also a lot of officers with the "keys" to a nuke. What if a single nuke gets launched and detonates it in any of the aforementioned areas. I suspect that retaliation would be absolutely massive. Look at what happened to Iraq after 9/11. Iraq had nothing to do with 9/11 but they "didn't like us" and they "threatened Israel".
There are simmering disputes all over the world. Say the world economy goes down the tubes? It has too someday as the jobs have been shipped to China and many countries are living off of debt....especially the US and southern Europe.
If a nuke gets launched, I just can't see the decision makers calling a meeting and calmly discussing the options. I see a massive counter-attack. Followed by massive counter-attacks. Civilization, as we know it, would be over within the hour.
We were quite aware of this threat during the Cold War. Diplomacy often ruled the day.
Now we have the "neocons" running around, barking ultimatums, after mysteriously accumulating tens of billions of dollars while the Federal Reserve issued trillions of dollars of new debt.
It is a tempest no matter how one looks at it. Those who talk about peace are basically clobbered upside the head and denounced for their lack of patriotism.
Syria looks like the hot spot where it all begins. Could be Iran. Could be any number of places.
We have one popular candidate who doesn't want to turn the Middle East into glass. That says a lot about our culture.
World War 3 ? I could see North Korea being a instigator and the soon to be nuclear Iran possibly being an ally with them.
Where would the super powers like China and Russia stand? Would China be against the USA and destroy the trade that drives their economy? What would Russia stand to gain with fighting the us?
When 9/11 happened I think we were better off with Bush then if Al Gore was in charge and if a big war broke out I wouldn't want Sanders or Hillary in charge.
I don't really understand why Americans have an obsession with Iran. They're crazy all right (like all other Muslim countries) but the real danger is the Sunnis.
It is because the media is constantly banging on the Iranian war drums. Who owns the media? That explains everything.
Iran doesn't have the foggiest interest in attacking the USA. Couldn't....Wouldn't....Shouldn't.
Israel feels threatened by everyone that doesn't like Israel. Which is about everyone outside of the 'Five Eyes' of England, USA, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand.
How did New Zealand get in? I would suspect that the power elite have "land holdings" in New Zealand. I have a lot of suspicions.
Quote:
Originally Posted by arctic_gardener
I don't really understand why Americans have an obsession with Iran. They're crazy all right (like all other Muslim countries) but the real danger is the Sunnis.
I don't really understand why Americans have an obsession with Iran. They're crazy all right (like all other Muslim countries) but the real danger is the Sunnis.
Exactly, and not even all Sunnis, but Wahhabi Sunnis. They are responsible for the vast majority of problems for non-Muslims.
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