Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Let us say for the sake of argument that the respective nominees are Clinton & Cruz. And let us further say that both Bernie & Trump opt to run as third party candidates (Bernie on the "Free Everything" party and Trump on the "I'm A Blithering Idiot" party).
Let us continue and state that neither Clinton or Cruz wins a majority of the Electoral College votes and the top 3 Electoral College vote getters now go to the US House of Representatives for a vote as to who will be our next President. Since the vote will take place with the current House, there is a GOP majority.
If the top 3 are Clinton, Cruz & Bernie (not necessarily in that order) then Cruz wins hands down as the Democrats will be split and while I might expect a few cross votes, it's Cruz easily.
But if the top 3 are Clinton, Cruz and Trump, the GOP may be split enough to hand it to Clinton (or maybe even Bernie, but much less likely as he is way out there in space and I would anticipate several cross over votes).
I find this incredibly fascinating. The wildest Presidential race in history is possibly before us.
Any thoughts on this and how the electoral college may play a part in this election? Moderator cut: Off Topic
Right now it looks like the GOP has painted itself into a tight corner. If the current trend continues, the November election promises to be anything but close. Of course, it's still 7 months away and that's a long time in politics. A lot can and will happen in that time. Unforeseen events could influence results in the opposite direction, but that seems unlikely.
Let us say for the sake of argument that the respective nominees are Clinton & Cruz. And let us further say that both Bernie & Trump opt to run as third party candidates (Bernie on the "Free Everything" party and Trump on the "I'm A Blithering Idiot" party).
Let us continue and state that neither Clinton or Cruz wins a majority of the Electoral College votes and the top 3 Electoral College vote getters now go to the US House of Representatives for a vote as to who will be our next President. Since the vote will take place with the current House, there is a GOP majority.
If the top 3 are Clinton, Cruz & Bernie (not necessarily in that order) then Cruz wins hands down as the Democrats will be split and while I might expect a few cross votes, it's Cruz easily.
But if the top 3 are Clinton, Cruz and Trump, the GOP may be split enough to hand it to Clinton (or maybe even Bernie, but much less likely as he is way out there in space and I would anticipate several cross over votes).
I find this incredibly fascinating. The wildest Presidential race in history is possibly before us.
Any thoughts on this and how the electoral college may play a part in this election? Moderator cut: Off Topic
With the exception of (I believe) Nebraska and Maine most states are winner takes all the Electoral College votes allocated to the state. For a 3rd or 4th party candidate to force the vote to the House they would have to have the ability to win a state. It is highly unlikely that any 3rd or 4th party candidate will win a state. The most they could do is create a situation where the Democratic or Republican party candidate wins the Electoral College votes with a minority of the popular vote in a state.
With the exception of (I believe) Nebraska and Maine most states are winner takes all the Electoral College votes allocated to the state. For a 3rd or 4th party candidate to force the vote to the House they would have to have the ability to win a state. It is highly unlikely that any 3rd or 4th party candidate will win a state. The most they could do is create a situation where the Democratic or Republican party candidate wins the Electoral College votes with a minority of the popular vote in a state.
Maybe, but both Bernie and Trump are quite popular in some quarters. All they need, potentially, is to win 1 state and to the House we go.
Maybe, but both Bernie and Trump are quite popular in some quarters. All they need, potentially, is to win 1 state and to the House we go.
I agree that in a close election perhaps all you would need is one state to go to a third party, but that is a huge hurdle. In the last 50 years 3rd party candidates have only served to weaken a Democratic or Republican party candidate that was most closely aligned to the 3rd party.
Despite all the hoopla and contention, I don't think any potential 3rd party candidate has shown that they could win a state running as a 3rd party candidate.
I agree that in a close election perhaps all you would need is one state to go to a third party, but that is a huge hurdle. In the last 50 years 3rd party candidates have only served to weaken a Democratic or Republican party candidate that was most closely aligned to the 3rd party.
Despite all the hoopla and contention, I don't think any potential 3rd party candidate has shown that they could win a state running as a 3rd party candidate.
All fair points.
But I see this one differently. The grass roots popularity of both Bernie & Trump seems so strong.
But the point of the thread was "what if". What if we end up in the House? What if it's Clinton, Cruz & Trump? What if the GOP splits and a Republican House allows a Democratic Clinton to be President? Will that so fracture and humiliate the party that it divides into two different parties? Will they unite and reject either Trump or Cruz?
Moderator cut: Orphaned - Quoted Posted has been deleted
Quote:
Let us say for the sake of argument that the respective nominees are Clinton & Cruz. And let us further say that both Bernie & Trump opt to run as third party candidates (Bernie on the "Free Everything" party and Trump on the "I'm A Blithering Idiot" party).
Well, which is it? Your headline purports to be a serious question about the election, yet now you want to assume that Sanders will run as an independent even though he has repeatedly and unequivocally stated that he will do no such thing under any circumstances. Yet you put this out there 'for the sake of argument'.
Again, which is it? Do you want to discuss the impending election, or do you want an academic discussion of an extremely unlikely eventuality?
You can't have it both ways.
Quote:
Let us continue and state that neither Clinton or Cruz wins a majority of the Electoral College votes and the top 3 Electoral College vote getters now go to the US House of Representatives for a vote as to who will be our next President. Since the vote will take place with the current House, there is a GOP majority.
Four candidates makes it less, not more, likely that no one gets an Electoral College majority. The more you water down the major options past three, the more likely it is that one of the other major-party nominee manages a plurality of voters in enough states to gain at least 270 Electoral College votes.
Anyway, as is obvious to all, Sanders isn't going to run as an independent. So if Trump and Cruz merely split the conservative vote, that just boosts Clinton's Electoral College count even as it probably dings her popular vote somewhat.
Quote:
I find this incredibly fascinating. The wildest Presidential race in history is possibly before us.
This is highly unlikely. Most likely, it'll be another two-person race. If not, it'll be Clinton v. two on the right, and a blowout. Hardly wild at all.
Quote:
Any thoughts on this and how the electoral college may play a part in this election? Moderator cut: Off Topic
Yes. Clinton will win at least 350 Electoral College votes. And if that reality disappoints you, that's your problem, not mine.
The only "House" I would like to see the election decided in is the American Household.
Do we really need a bunch of career establishment politicians telling us what is good for us or should the people be free to vote and decide who they want?
Clinton is the darling of the Dems. or most of them anyway. Trump and Cruz will never be handed anything by the establishment they need to earn it.
It is going to be a hard pill to swallow when we are forced by the GOP to vote for someone like Ron Paul just to keep Hillary out of the white house.
The GOP has many problems and most of those have been self inflicted.
But I see this one differently. The grass roots popularity of both Bernie & Trump seems so strong.
But the point of the thread was "what if". What if we end up in the House? What if it's Clinton, Cruz & Trump? What if the GOP splits and a Republican House allows a Democratic Clinton to be President? Will that so fracture and humiliate the party that it divides into two different parties? Will they unite and reject either Trump or Cruz?
If some miracle occurs and it gets to the House then the Republican candidate will be elected. Perhaps we could see a protest vote by some Republicans if they know that their vote won't change the ultimate result. There is just no way Republicans will allow Clinton or Sanders be elected if they can prevent it.
If some miracle occurs and it gets to the House then the Republican candidate will be elected. Perhaps we could see a protest vote by some Republicans if they know that their vote won't change the ultimate result. There is just no way Republicans will allow Clinton or Sanders be elected if they can prevent it.
Maybe they can't.
Here is what I am wondering about.
I see Clinton winning the Democrat nomination. I see Cruz the GOP. Trump has stated that he will probably run a third party candidacy. If he wins a couple of states, then the election probably ends up in the House. I think the current split is 244 to 188. If we presume 8 jump to the dems, then it becomes a 236 to 196 split and if more than 40 of the 196 vote for Trump, Clinton becomes President. Trump has the support of the Tea Party identifiers. And while the chances of that are slim, I see it as still a very real one. And I find it interesting. Seems to me if that happened it could potentially fracture the GOP possibly to the point it splits off into 2 parties like the democrats when Truman ran for election.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Will The Next Prez Be Decided In The US House?
