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Old 04-13-2020, 03:19 PM
 
3,145 posts, read 1,601,500 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JonathanLB View Post
Yes, like the fact we all had to be told to wash our hands more. Who wasn’t doing this?! But I ask that rhetorically as I know - I see tons of people leave the men’s bathroom without washing their hands. Half the ones who do wash their hands barely do it at all, like I’d say they’re more “getting their hands wet” than washing them!

How contagious are they saying Coronavirus is at this point? I repeatedly read R0 is 2.2, which isn’t 3x more contagious than the flu it’s at most twice then. But it seems to me like it’s more contagious than that, because of how fast it apparently spreads and it’s almost tough to believe that one person who could be asymptomatic only spreads to 2 or 3 other people.
You might be interested in this study of Social Distancing strategies for curbing the COVID-19 authored by the Department of Immunology and Infectuous Diseases Harvard TH Chan of School of Public Health. Their model assumes a peak RO of 2 & 2.5 (wintertime) and summertime RO to vary between 70% and 100% of wintertime.

https://dash.harvard.edu/bitstream/h...=1&isAllowed=y
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Old 04-13-2020, 03:28 PM
 
7,118 posts, read 4,536,107 times
Reputation: 23298
I am a 3 in regard to the reason to shutdown the economy. I do not agree with reopening too soon.
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Old 04-13-2020, 03:37 PM
 
Location: all over the place (figuratively)
6,616 posts, read 4,882,033 times
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https://consumer.healthday.com/infec...19-756628.html
That's up there with paralysis as probably the worst type of long-term complication from any illness. (I guess paralysis is what some of them have gotten, via stroke.) The United States cannot afford to have tens of thousands of such cases.
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Old 04-13-2020, 03:42 PM
 
6,706 posts, read 5,935,215 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ackmondual View Post
But Trump IS to blame! China's government suppressed the news that they had an outbreak on their hands. That's on them. But then Trump kept going on and on for months how "15 cases should go down to 0", how they have it handled and there's nothing to worry about, "in April, it'll just disappear like a miracle", but then in late March, doing a complete 180 and acknowledging it as a pandemic. Fox News was actually worried about getting sued since all their reporters wanted to make Trump not look like an idiot (heh, gl with that!), so they kept calling the coronavirus "a Democrat hoax", that you have nothing to worry about (all the while, the owners of the Fox News network were themselves practicing social distancing, and avoiding physical contact). To many of us, the US federal government is just as awful as China's government was on this matter, if not more so.
You're very poorly informed. Trump and his people reacted as information came in. China basically kept it a secret until early January; they wouldn't even allow a CDC team to visit Wuhan and see for themselves.

Trump never called the virus a "Democrat hoax". He called something else the Democrats did a hoax, which it was, then they (as usual) quoted him out of context to make it sound as if he was calling the virus a hoax.

Then we could talk about the impeachment farce which wasted everyone's time, exactly as the epidemic was picking up steam. Trump closed the border to Chinese travelers the same day that Congress voted on impeachment. He mentioned the virus in the SoTU address -- the one where Pelosi tore the speech up on camera.

Anyway, I could go on, but since you stated Trump's an idiot, there's really no point. I might as well be talking to the wall. Have a nice day, wall.
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Old 04-13-2020, 04:20 PM
 
Location: Georgia, USA
37,105 posts, read 41,267,704 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JonathanLB View Post
The seasonal flu kills 0.1% of people it infects. But we know even just from the regular anecdotal reports that you simply don’t see 20, 30, 40 year old people in good health ever dying from the flu. That just doesn’t happen, to my knowledge.
Influenza kills people of all ages. Which age groups are hit hardest varies from season to season. So far this year there have been 166 reported deaths of children. Typically half of those children have no underlying health problems.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/#S3
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Old 04-13-2020, 04:36 PM
 
14,316 posts, read 11,702,283 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by suzy_q2010 View Post
Influenza kills people of all ages. Which age groups are hit hardest varies from season to season. So far this year there have been 166 reported deaths of children. Typically half of those children have no underlying health problems.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/#S3
If 166 American children had died from COVID-19, there would be an outcry to stay locked down forever. If it's flu? Meh.
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Old 04-13-2020, 04:38 PM
 
Location: Canada
6,617 posts, read 6,544,435 times
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Ask the people in Italy. They'd rather be alive and poor, than rich and dead.
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Old 04-13-2020, 05:59 PM
 
3,145 posts, read 1,601,500 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Maddie104 View Post
What you bring up is an important point which is why it is to difficult to compare mortality rates among countries and there are multiple variables. I agree that the demographics of the population impacts the mortality rate but that does not necessarily override the impact of developing the first test, mass testing and supplies vis-a-vis the United States. Perhaps the elderly/serious pre-existinf folks were not as exposed because the early, mass testing identified the infected so the infected self-isolated preventing the elderly/serious pre-existent folks from being exposed.


Highly relevant article about how there was a superspread in Boston during a conference of Biogen executives.

Fifty employees who had flulike symptoms could not be tested and then those employees exponentially spread it to others in multiple states.

Two German employees were immediately tested quickly limiting any spread.


"That Tuesday, Biogen contacted the Massachusetts Department of Public Health and reported that about 50 employees in the Boston area and overseas had flulike symptoms. Biogen employees began showing up at the emergency room of Massachusetts General Hospital, demanding tests. They were told their cases didn’t satisfy the testing criteria at the time, since none had traveled to a hot spot or had known exposure to someone who had tested positive for COVID-19.

The next day, confirmation of the worst arrived. Two Biogen executives who had returned home to Germany and Switzerland, where tests were more widely available, had tested positive.

The official count of those sickened— 99, including employees and their contacts, according to the Massachusetts Department of Public Health — includes only those who live in that state. The true number across the United States is certainly higher. The first two cases in Indiana were Biogen executives. So was the first known case in Tennessee, and six of the earliest cases in North Carolina."

https://www.boston.com/news/local-ne...en-coronavirus
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Old 04-13-2020, 07:15 PM
 
Location: all over the place (figuratively)
6,616 posts, read 4,882,033 times
Reputation: 3601
Quote:
Originally Posted by suzy_q2010 View Post
Influenza kills people of all ages. Which age groups are hit hardest varies from season to season. So far this year there have been 166 reported deaths of children. Typically half of those children have no underlying health problems.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/#S3
That's a tiny percentage of children, no doubt in part because almost all children are vaccinated. Anyway, the data shows that risk of death from the flu rises with age, especially among adults.

I think most mentions of the flu get in the way of dealing with COVID-19. By the way, some of the Biogen employees truly had the flu. Large official gatherings of adults in a bad flu season should be avoided if unnecessary. Society taking flu for granted probably opened the door wider for COVID-19.
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Old 04-13-2020, 09:02 PM
 
Location: Georgia, USA
37,105 posts, read 41,267,704 times
Reputation: 45146
Quote:
Originally Posted by goodheathen View Post
That's a tiny percentage of children, no doubt in part because almost all children are vaccinated. Anyway, the data shows that risk of death from the flu rises with age, especially among adults.

I think most mentions of the flu get in the way of dealing with COVID-19. By the way, some of the Biogen employees truly had the flu. Large official gatherings of adults in a bad flu season should be avoided if unnecessary. Society taking flu for granted probably opened the door wider for COVID-19.
The poster I replied to stated he was unaware that any healthy people under the age of 50 died from flu. They do. I just used kids as an example.

The sad thing is that people do not take the flu vaccine because of the impression that it is ineffective. Not enough take it to achieve herd immunity.
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