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Latest projection is 60K total US deaths from the virus.
1. One group (apparently serious and apparently apolitical ) claims we can't open up any portions of the economy until we have either admistered a foolproof vaccine to all US citizens (330M) or have tested (and re-tested weekly ) all citizens (330M) for antibodies.
2. Another group claims we can open up various portions of the economy at various locales fairly shortly. And eyeball other parts of the country for modifications of restrictions as the virus tapers.
The fact that the president is leaning towards #2 and the earlier economic recovery might explain why many in the media are reflexively pushing #1.
2012-2013 seasonal flu toll was approximately 60K.
Trump preferred to let the states deal with this on their own, instead of issuing a national lockdown order, so I would imagine thats going to come back to haunt him now, when he wants to start thinking about re opening, the states feel the opposite though! My states governor, told residents to be prepared to DIG DEEP for the next few months, in order to slow the spread of the virus...so I dont see much of anything re opening here for a while.
Trump preferred to let the states deal with this on their own, instead of issuing a national lockdown order, so I would imagine thats going to come back to haunt him now, when he wants to start thinking about re opening, the states feel the opposite though! My states governor, told residents to be prepared to DIG DEEP for the next few months, in order to slow the spread of the virus...so I dont see much of anything re opening here for a while.
The President cannot legally issue a lockdown order. The Federal government can prevent sick people from going from state to state, but with a state it has to be done by that state.
Looks like the final number of deaths will be around 26,000 for the U.S. I think bringing the original number down from 250,000 to about 10% of that, was worth it.
Right now, seven governors of Northeast states are getting together (virtually, of course) to discuss a planned reopening of their states. This includes mid-Atlantic and southern New England states (Boston-DC corridor) that account for a lot of people.
Looks like the final number of deaths will be around 26,000 for the U.S. I think bringing the original number down from 250,000 to about 10% of that, was worth it.
Right now, seven governors of Northeast states are getting together (virtually, of course) to discuss a planned reopening of their states. This includes mid-Atlantic and southern New England states (Boston-DC corridor) that account for a lot of people.
The 250K was a WAG (wild ass guess) based on nothing. We had nothing. "I gave it my best guess, Captain". We're not Spock. And agendas were everywhere. As ever black people took it on the chin. And a number of states tried to get their anti-abortion agendas rammed through. No strippers, no hookers, no bars, no casinos, no tatoo parlors, no massage parlors. The ONLY things you can do in my city is buy food and (legal) drugs. That's it. Don't think this isn't looking good to some people.
China has its issues but you can wear a mask there. Ditto South Korea, Singapore, Japan, Taiwan ... that's what saved them. Masks. Mask wearing is not stigmatized in Asian countries and people wear them because it is a polite thing to do in crowded cities. It saved them. No matter what Western countries did or did not do vis a vis contact tracing or testing yada yada ... none of it would have mattered if you were not simultaneously limiting spread by the use of MASKS.
Way too late, mask wearing is becoming a thing in the U.S. In L.A. it is illegal not to! My how things have changed. Hard to find anyone not wearing a mask these days and that, more than anything else, is why Governors can think about lifting their lockdowns. I've heard of rats chewing off a foot to get out of a trap. America has chewed off everything below the waist. We got out of the trap but at what cost ...
In a country as poor in longevity, lifestyle, and accident metrics as America, how many of the Covid dead would have died from something else in the next 6 months? More to the point, how many are dying and will die in the next 6 months that DIDN'T get Covid?
US-A, old guys are sacrificing ourselves so that the next Pandemic can be effectively combated. The present Covid19 will be eventually be solved using us 'old guys' as the lab rats for experimental treatments.
Looks like the final number of deaths will be around 26,000 for the U.S. I think bringing the original number down from 250,000 to about 10% of that, was worth it.
Right now, seven governors of Northeast states are getting together (virtually, of course) to discuss a planned reopening of their states. This includes mid-Atlantic and southern New England states (Boston-DC corridor) that account for a lot of people.
I'm wondering, though, if, even when the stay-at-home guidelines are relaxed, how many people would feel safe returning to normal. I had hoped to drive out to CA in May, and the West Coast guvs are also discussing opening back up, but even if they do, I'm not sure I'd want to be circulating in places where the virus is also circulating at heightened percentages. Sounds like Russian roulette.
The 250K was a WAG (wild ass guess) based on nothing. We had nothing. "I gave it my best guess, Captain". We're not Spock. And agendas were everywhere. As ever black people took it on the chin. And a number of states tried to get their anti-abortion agendas rammed through. No strippers, no hookers, no bars, no casinos, no tatoo parlors, no massage parlors. The ONLY things you can do in my city is buy food and (legal) drugs. That's it. Don't think this isn't looking good to some people.
China has its issues but you can wear a mask there. Ditto South Korea, Singapore, Japan, Taiwan ... that's what saved them. Masks. Mask wearing is not stigmatized in Asian countries and people wear them because it is a polite thing to do in crowded cities. It saved them. No matter what Western countries did or did not do vis a vis contact tracing or testing yada yada ... none of it would have mattered if you were not simultaneously limiting spread by the use of MASKS.
Way too late, mask wearing is becoming a thing in the U.S. In L.A. it is illegal not to! My how things have changed. Hard to find anyone not wearing a mask these days and that, more than anything else, is why Governors can think about lifting their lockdowns. I've heard of rats chewing off a foot to get out of a trap. America has chewed off everything below the waist. We got out of the trap but at what cost ...
In a country as poor in longevity, lifestyle, and accident metrics as America, how many of the Covid dead would have died from something else in the next 6 months? More to the point, how many are dying and will die in the next 6 months that DIDN'T get Covid?
Only deaths (of people who weren't about to die) matter.
Just wear a mask.
Two major fallacies on display there.
Let's assume that many people in Wuhan (probably not one of the locales most susceptible to contagious disease) were already wearing masks when COVID-19 surged. https://www.businessinsider.com/wuha...fective-2020-1
Eventually China locked its Wuhan residents inside!
This is one of the worst changes in recent human history. The country does need to open up more than it is now, but the priority must be controlling the pandemic.
I'm wondering, though, if, even when the stay-at-home guidelines are relaxed, how many people would feel safe returning to normal. I had hoped to drive out to CA in May, and the West Coast guvs are also discussing opening back up, but even if they do, I'm not sure I'd want to be circulating in places where the virus is also circulating at heightened percentages. Sounds like Russian roulette.
I asked my spouse that last night since he is older and more susceptible, no pre-existing condition but had extremely bad bronchitis from a different virus he never wants to repeat.
He says he'll wait for vaccine to resume family gatherings and public outings. We'll miss a family wedding this summer (his side). Seems harsh to not see family or go grocery shopping until proven vaccine is here. I don't want to bring virus home so letting him decide. I have plenty to stay busy at home for a year (really do). His local family is not staying at home the way he is.
Looks like the final number of deaths will be around 26,000 for the U.S. I think bringing the original number down from 250,000 to about 10% of that, was worth it.
If that's true, that's very fortunate and an amazing achievement in public health policy and public cooperation.
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Originally Posted by twinkletwinkle22
I asked my spouse that last night since he is older and more susceptible, no pre-existing condition but had extremely bad bronchitis from a different virus he never wants to repeat.
He says he'll wait for vaccine to resume family gatherings and public outings. We'll miss a family wedding this summer (his side). Seems harsh to not see family or go grocery shopping until proven vaccine is here. I don't want to bring virus home so letting him decide. I have plenty to stay busy at home for a year (really do). His local family is not staying at home the way he is.
My family is reluctantly accepting that we probably won't be visiting my 93-year-old mom until some time next spring, when the vaccines are available, and/or a powerful treatment cures the disease.
But we'll be getting out in the world again soon. We can't just stay cooped up forever. I work from home, but my wife works for the Census and my kid will be getting back to school in the fall.
I imagine there are millions of other people basically thinking the same thing. There will be risks, but a lot of us will keep wearing masks and being careful what we touch, and we'll get on with our lives.
China has its issues but you can wear a mask there. Ditto South Korea, Singapore, Japan, Taiwan ... that's what saved them. Masks. Mask wearing is not stigmatized in Asian countries and people wear them because it is a polite thing to do in crowded cities. It saved them. No matter what Western countries did or did not do vis a vis contact tracing or testing yada yada ... none of it would have mattered if you were not simultaneously limiting spread by the use of MASKS.
Everyone from the WHO to the CDC to the Surgeon General told us NOT to wear masks until a week ago. Now they're all telling us that of course we have to wear masks. We love masks. We have always loved masks.
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In a country as poor in longevity, lifestyle, and accident metrics as America, how many of the Covid dead would have died from something else in the next 6 months? More to the point, how many are dying and will die in the next 6 months that DIDN'T get Covid?
Good point. I've been wondering what the final death toll from "seasonal flu" will be this year. If we have 26,000 Covid-19 deaths, will the seasonal flu total be 26,000 less than expected? We already know that traffic fatalities are way down, probably fatal industrial accidents are way down, too.
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