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There has been a lot of discussion about some of your points.
Is depopulation a good thing?.... In the long run, certainly. In the short term it will be painful as countries take in less and less revenue from a decreasing working population. But after a period of time (measured in decades) governments will shrink in size to accommodate their new balance sheet.
My own feeling is that 200 years from now countries like Bulgaria will be very sparsely uninhabited. The government itself will virtually cease to function with few imports or exports, no real armed forces and laws that are unenforced. Bulgaria does not have a neighbor who will do much better, although their EU status may save them for a while. FWIW, Bulgaria population peaked in 1988 at 9.9M. It is now at 6.9M with a fertility rate of 1.56. The last time it had a TFR of over 2.1 was 1984.
One problem that the world will have to face is automation. And millions if not billions that will have no useful purpose to exist as far as society is concerned. Less people takes pressure off of that issue.
It kind of shows that taxation by countries operates as a Ponzi scheme. It take younger people constantly feeding the machine to keep it afloat. That is the problem when you have a huge safety net for all your people. Its not sustainable.
There has been a lot of discussion about some of your points.
Is depopulation a good thing?.... In the long run, certainly. In the short term it will be painful as countries take in less and less revenue from a decreasing working population. But after a period of time (measured in decades) governments will shrink in size to accommodate their new balance sheet.
My own feeling is that 200 years from now countries like Bulgaria will be very sparsely uninhabited. The government itself will virtually cease to function with few imports or exports, no real armed forces and laws that are unenforced. Bulgaria does not have a neighbor who will do much better, although their EU status may save them for a while. FWIW, Bulgaria population peaked in 1988 at 9.9M. It is now at 6.9M with a fertility rate of 1.56. The last time it had a TFR of over 2.1 was 1984.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Listener2307
But after a period of time (measured in decades) governments will shrink in size to accommodate their new balance sheet.
However, companies like Amazon (retail) they will be hard pressed to shrink their prices to accommodate their new balance sheets ... and on that one example think of everything a person pays for, phones, electricity, housing; and knowing that less of those items will be needed but --- the person who offers those services will probably not be too happy about their shrinking balance sheets. They will probably increase prices to meet their bottom line, I'm sure ...
When we first (many years back) began talking about automation and robots, it's like sure they efficiently produce, but they don't purchase that that they produce.
Then we have all the foreign loans these countries take out --- if they don't mind their ps and qs paying those back will be a b -- ch. The country that is unable to meet that obligation, well there goes the neighborhood.
All this discussion about people becoming redundant, excess population due to automation... remember that this was a concern 200 years ago as well. In fact, all during the 1800s, and well into the 20th century, people bemoaned the mechanization of previously manual tasks like stitching and nailing shoes, cutting leather, etc. Thomas Hardy in one of his great 19th C. novels mentioned the tradition of farm workers sowing seeds by hand, tossing them randomly into the dirt, sadly replaced by huge, stinky coal-fired machines (I want to say this was Tess of the D'Urbervilles but maybe someone else remembers?). The famous "buggy whip makers driven out of work by automobiles" analogy is just one little example; millions of jobs were made redundant by machines.
And yet, somehow, our economies grew vastly larger, as did our populations. Why? Because we simply developed new kinds of professions and careers.
Will that trend repeat itself, or is this the end of history? I believe in fact that new professions will continue to emerge even as we stare down the rifle barrel of A.I. which seemingly will replace all human activities.
The one thing A.I. cannot do, and possibly never will do, is creative innovation. A.I. as currently exists is basically a set of data-driven rules, with a learning algorithm designed to incorporate new information and inform the decision process. It does not experience emotion, flashes of brilliant insight, or anything else that spurs human creativity.
It's quite possible that someone will find a way to make an angry A.I. and a happy A.I. using some kind of simulation and probability algorithms. I think they're working on that. Angry A.I. sounds a bit scary, actually. But it will not replace people. The most learning-disabled autistic or otherwise mentally limited human will continue to be infinitely more capable than the smartest A.I., in terms of emotional range and other traits unique to higher animals.
In the mid-1980s, Japan's industrial products were supreme in the world, and Americans worried that we would soon be eclipsed by the Japanese, bankrupted and basically they would come to own everything and be our bosses.
Yet, that never came to pass. Around 1990 or so, Japan's real estate bubble burst, and American software arose. The internet, mostly an American thing, got big really fast, faster than Japan's vaunted keiretsu (integrated conglomerates) could adapt, and suddenly the Japanese were left in the dust. By the late 90s, the American GDP had doubled, with trillions of dollars in new wealth flooding the stock markets, and thousands of new ideas being turned into companies by young entrepreneurs.
Then that bubble burst, and China arose.
These things are cyclical. Now China's starting to stumble, because the demographic hens came home to roost. One Child was the most disastrous policy in Chinese history, even worse than the Great Leap Forward of the 1950s that resulted in mass famines and tens of millions of deaths. This well meaning but uninformed policy that ignored basic human needs and traditions, combined with the catastrophic Cultural Revolution that pitted children against parents, tore Chinese society apart, leaving nothing left but central power imposed with a heavy hand.
We worry about China's growing power, but I think it's a passing thing. In 20 years, China's population will be significantly older. One website, visualcapitalist, estimates China's 60+ population in 2021 at 258,371,810, or 17.9% of the total population. By 2050 (27 years from now) they estimate 485,489,066, or 34.6%. Of course, there are a variety of such estimates, and it seems that even estimates from 2-3 years ago are overly optimistic. The population is crashing hard.
At the same time, the general population of China, though seemingly quiet and content, is seething beneath the surface because of their inhumane lockdown policies and a general frustration with government heavyhandedness. As mentioned earlier in this threat, young people are in a quiet state of rebellion against the government, expressing their discontent by refusing to have children. Will this situation turn around in the near future? My guess is, not until the government is liberalized, and moves more toward rule of law and a general perception of fairness to replace the corruption and guanxi (connections) system of recent decades.
So, in conclusion, things are cyclical, manufacturing gives way to high tech which gives way to A.I. domination which gives way to... ??? new professions and jobs that we might not even imagine today. Remember, prior to 1994 or so, being a "web designer" was not a thing. Fast forward to 1999 and it was hundreds of thousands of well paying jobs (the bubble did burst, admittedly, but it's still in existence).
All this discussion about people becoming redundant, excess population due to automation... remember that this was a concern 200 years ago as well. In fact, all during the 1800s, and well into the 20th century, people bemoaned the mechanization of previously manual tasks like stitching and nailing shoes, cutting leather, etc. Thomas Hardy in one of his great 19th C. novels mentioned the tradition of farm workers sowing seeds by hand, tossing them randomly into the dirt, sadly replaced by huge, stinky coal-fired machines (I want to say this was Tess of the D'Urbervilles but maybe someone else remembers?). The famous "buggy whip makers driven out of work by automobiles" analogy is just one little example; millions of jobs were made redundant by machines.
And yet, somehow, our economies grew vastly larger, as did our populations. Why? Because we simply developed new kinds of professions and careers.
Will that trend repeat itself, or is this the end of history? I believe in fact that new professions will continue to emerge even as we stare down the rifle barrel of A.I. which seemingly will replace all human activities.
The one thing A.I. cannot do, and possibly never will do, is creative innovation. A.I. as currently exists is basically a set of data-driven rules, with a learning algorithm designed to incorporate new information and inform the decision process. It does not experience emotion, flashes of brilliant insight, or anything else that spurs human creativity.
It's quite possible that someone will find a way to make an angry A.I. and a happy A.I. using some kind of simulation and probability algorithms. I think they're working on that. Angry A.I. sounds a bit scary, actually. But it will not replace people. The most learning-disabled autistic or otherwise mentally limited human will continue to be infinitely more capable than the smartest A.I., in terms of emotional range and other traits unique to higher animals.
In the mid-1980s, Japan's industrial products were supreme in the world, and Americans worried that we would soon be eclipsed by the Japanese, bankrupted and basically they would come to own everything and be our bosses.
Yet, that never came to pass. Around 1990 or so, Japan's real estate bubble burst, and American software arose. The internet, mostly an American thing, got big really fast, faster than Japan's vaunted keiretsu (integrated conglomerates) could adapt, and suddenly the Japanese were left in the dust. By the late 90s, the American GDP had doubled, with trillions of dollars in new wealth flooding the stock markets, and thousands of new ideas being turned into companies by young entrepreneurs.
Then that bubble burst, and China arose.
These things are cyclical. Now China's starting to stumble, because the demographic hens came home to roost. One Child was the most disastrous policy in Chinese history, even worse than the Great Leap Forward of the 1950s that resulted in mass famines and tens of millions of deaths. This well meaning but uninformed policy that ignored basic human needs and traditions, combined with the catastrophic Cultural Revolution that pitted children against parents, tore Chinese society apart, leaving nothing left but central power imposed with a heavy hand.
We worry about China's growing power, but I think it's a passing thing. In 20 years, China's population will be significantly older. One website, visualcapitalist, estimates China's 60+ population in 2021 at 258,371,810, or 17.9% of the total population. By 2050 (27 years from now) they estimate 485,489,066, or 34.6%. Of course, there are a variety of such estimates, and it seems that even estimates from 2-3 years ago are overly optimistic. The population is crashing hard.
At the same time, the general population of China, though seemingly quiet and content, is seething beneath the surface because of their inhumane lockdown policies and a general frustration with government heavyhandedness. As mentioned earlier in this threat, young people are in a quiet state of rebellion against the government, expressing their discontent by refusing to have children. Will this situation turn around in the near future? My guess is, not until the government is liberalized, and moves more toward rule of law and a general perception of fairness to replace the corruption and guanxi (connections) system of recent decades.
So, in conclusion, things are cyclical, manufacturing gives way to high tech which gives way to A.I. domination which gives way to... ??? new professions and jobs that we might not even imagine today. Remember, prior to 1994 or so, being a "web designer" was not a thing. Fast forward to 1999 and it was hundreds of thousands of well paying jobs (the bubble did burst, admittedly, but it's still in existence).
Quote:
Originally Posted by blisterpeanuts
So, in conclusion, things are cyclical, manufacturing gives way to high tech which gives way to A.I. domination which gives way to... ??? new professions and jobs that we might not even imagine today.
Yes, but without the applicant to fill those jobs, because they weren't birthed.
It won't be like in the 60s where as agriculture manual labor was replaced by machinery and people moved into the cities to find jobs. It's more like the machine is taking over, because there is no one available to take that job. We're also talking about white collar jobs, as well.
There is a large global population of stateless people living in refugee camps --- I'm thinking the day is coming, governments will be offering those people a home, education and a job.
Listener2307 is better at posting on the numbers, than I am --- look at 'em though and re-imagine if this TFR trend continues, the economic outcome of say 100 years into the future. And no the sky is not falling, but as John says in Revelation --- 'a loaf of bread equal to a man's day's wage', may be their reality.
..............
There is a large global population of stateless people living in refugee camps --- I'm thinking the day is coming, governments will be offering those people a home, education and a job.......
I had not considered that, but it may be a reality as people become scarce in some countries.
The population pyramid is a great way to understand the problem. Here's the pyramid of Bhutan, a country most people never heard of:
Until about 30 years ago the pyramid was a perfect pyramid. So someone looking at it would see nothing but population growth.
Then about 30 years ago the women of Bhutan stopped having so many children and look at how the number of births fell, and are continuing to fall. What happened?..... Bhutan began to modernize with free elections and women's rights. And this is happening all over the world. It takes 20 years to make a working-age person and no technology in the world will change that. They may, indeed, come to be in very short supply.
The Chinese one child policy had little effect. Birthrates were already declining when it was instituted and they have not risen after it was abolished.
Taiwan is a country that shares a Chinese culture with the PRC. They never had a one child policy and their birthrate is below that of China.
The one child policy was a political lightning rod and a target for criticism. But as with most government policies on natalism - pro and anti - it was ineffective.
My own feeling is that 200 years from now countries like Bulgaria will be very sparsely uninhabited. The government itself will virtually cease to function with few imports or exports, no real armed forces and laws that are unenforced. ...
Bulgaria has a mild climate and a fine location on the Black Sea coast. 200 years from now, Bangladesh (and Miami) will be under water, and much of the Middle East will be too scorching hot to be inhabitable, even with Qatar-style air conditioning. The good and the great, from various points South, will migrate to places like Bulgaria, which will then likely have a climate, as say Cyprus or Sicily have now.
Indeed, the Balkans and even Ukraine are going to be prized real estate locations, in the VERY long term. Odessa will be the new Barcelona (or Miami).
The Chinese one child policy had little effect. Birthrates were already declining when it was instituted and they have not risen after it was abolished.
Taiwan is a country that shares a Chinese culture with the PRC. They never had a one child policy and their birthrate is below that of China.
The one child policy was a political lightning rod and a target for criticism. But as with most government policies on natalism - pro and anti - it was ineffective.
In China, the One Child Policy (只生一個 "just have one") was in effect 1980-2015.
In Taiwan, there was no restriction on # of births, but the government around 1980 was urging people to only have 2 (只生兩個 "just have two"). I'm not sure how much people followed this guideline, but when I was there 1980-82, I saw mostly families with 1 or 2 kids, sometimes more; everywhere I went, I saw pregnant women, and during that two year period, the island's population rose by about half a million.
Issue was that Taiwan is rather tiny; the total land area is 35,980 sq km (13,892 sq miles) or about the same as Maryland + Delaware. Of that total land mass, much of it is mountainous terrain, barely inhabited (similar to Japan).
In 1982, Taiwan's pop. = 18m. In 2023, it is 23.9m and expected to peak by 2030 at 24m, then begin the long decline.
I believe Taiwan is a case of a country that simply cannot accommodate many more people. Like Japan, they have to import nearly everything except tropical and subtropical produce, and their university system can only accept 10% of the applicants. Like most East Asian rim countries, families consider a college education mandatory for a good life and push the children to study 7 days a week, attend cram schools, etc. Their exam system is as brutal as Japan's. When I was there, I saw high school girls with little streaks of grey hair. Very depressing, honestly.
Anyway today their birthrate is stunningly low now. I don't totally understand why this happened, other than the overcrowdedness. By the way quite a few Taiwanese are living and working on the mainland now, running factories etc. I wonder what happens to them if China attacks Taiwan.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ohio_peasant
Bulgaria has a mild climate and a fine location on the Black Sea coast. 200 years from now, Bangladesh (and Miami) will be under water, and much of the Middle East will be too scorching hot to be inhabitable, even with Qatar-style air conditioning. The good and the great, from various points South, will migrate to places like Bulgaria, which will then likely have a climate, as say Cyprus or Sicily have now.
Indeed, the Balkans and even Ukraine are going to be prized real estate locations, in the VERY long term. Odessa will be the new Barcelona (or Miami).
David Brin, sci-fi author of note, wrote a book back in 1990, "Earth", that predicts a very nasty future for us by 2038. Global warming has continued apace, and the new good places to live are northern Canada and northern Siberia which have become temperate and good for farming. Vast numbers of people are climate refugees, some living on huge groups of rafts on the ocean. I don't remember any population projections, but overall it's a rather depressing view of the future. I hope he's mostly wrong.
Bulgaria has a mild climate and a fine location on the Black Sea coast. 200 years from now, Bangladesh (and Miami) will be under water, and much of the Middle East will be too scorching hot to be inhabitable, even with Qatar-style air conditioning. The good and the great, from various points South, will migrate to places like Bulgaria, which will then likely have a climate, as say Cyprus or Sicily have now.
Indeed, the Balkans and even Ukraine are going to be prized real estate locations, in the VERY long term. Odessa will be the new Barcelona (or Miami).
Your suggestion will require a sea change in Bulgarian law, where foreigners are not allowed to buy property. Countries like Bulgaria and Hungary would rather die on the vine than make changes. In fact, I expect that will be their fate.
Bulgaria has a mild climate and a fine location on the Black Sea coast. 200 years from now, Bangladesh (and Miami) will be under water, and much of the Middle East will be too scorching hot to be inhabitable, even with Qatar-style air conditioning. The good and the great, from various points South, will migrate to places like Bulgaria, which will then likely have a climate, as say Cyprus or Sicily have now.
Indeed, the Balkans and even Ukraine are going to be prized real estate locations, in the VERY long term. Odessa will be the new Barcelona (or Miami).
Taking this one step further, much more land is becoming inhabitable with global warming than is becoming uninhabitable. There's WAY more acreage (even places like northern NM) that are below ideal temps than there are acres above temps or below 50 ft elevation. It's just the way the continents are shaped with so much land being at high latitudes. China eventually taking over all of the eastern part of what is the failed state of Russia will help too - at least that's my dream. Add Sahara greening to the mix (climate change will green this up too) and it's not a problem of habitable land, it's a problem of getting people to move from their historic coastal locations to where the good land is.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Listener2307
Your suggestion will require a sea change in Bulgarian law, where foreigners are not allowed to buy property. Countries like Bulgaria and Hungary would rather die on the vine than make changes. In fact, I expect that will be their fate.
Historically no country has actually been able to refuse all migrants in the long run. You can look to the Bulgarians and Hungarians themselves, they didn't just spawn there 2000 years ago, they came from other parts of the continent and settled in. That same pattern will just replicate. Eventually the incumbents become so weak they can't fend off the newcomers.
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