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We'll never go live on Mars. Not ever.
Proponents and promoters speak of the need to colonize planets in order to reduce congestion here on earth. They tell us we could live underground, or in specially built facilities. They say children will be born on Mars.
It's nonsense. We will never live on a planet where venturing outside would mean certain death. Mars is a place where our bodies would rapidly deteriorate first from the lower gravity and second from the constant bombardment of deadly rays generated by the sun.
Scientists know this. But they want "research money" so they promote this fantasy.
You want to live in someplace harsh because earth is too crowded?..... Consider the far north. There is room on every continent that reaches into the arctic. Just pick a spot and colonize - Iceland; Greenland; Canada. Or go south to the Antarctic. Or go underwater if you want a real challenge.
Each of those are infinitely cheaper than going to mars. You could go outside and survive and babies could be born. And if you get tired of it you can go home.
Mars?..... Nah. Never.
But I'd be interested in your take.
I think we will, but I don't know how soon. I don't see it as a "life raft" for earthlings. AIUI if you or I lived on Mars right now, our muscles would start to atrophy because the gravity is less. Still, science always has more to study. I saw something on TV about an expedition where different countries would work on different aspects of the mission. It wouldn't be like USA putting a man on the moon---it would take a concerted effort from multiple nations. That alone would be worth going to Mars.
Should we really terraform it? We're an invasive species. From 2003 (paywalled):
NASA plans to crash its $1.5-billion Galileo spacecraft into Jupiter this weekend to make sure it doesn't accidentally contaminate the planet's ice-covered moon Europa with bacteria from Earth.
After Galileo's orbit carries it behind Jupiter at 3:49 p.m. Sunday, the aging probe will plunge into the planet's stormy atmosphere at a speed of nearly 108,000 mph.
This makes about as much sense as "We'll never go to the Moon because we can't live there permanently".
It also toes the line between naive and arrogant to suppose to know that the state of technology and/or human intent in, say, the year 2323 will be such that it will not be useful* to go there.
Why will we go? Because it's there. Because it's basic human exploration. Because people want us to go there. Because it'll have politically beneficial components to the mission.
When? Well, I'm 54, and I doubt it'll happen in my life time. But that's irrelevant to the question.
IMO, humanity will go to Mars because the leaders of the People's Republic of China want their nation to be the largest, most successful, and most powerful nation on Earth (why they want that is another topic). The leaders of China know that putting their astronauts on Mars would be an immense propaganda victory that would overshadow the United States putting their astronauts on the Moon - it would be a sign to the world that China has surpassed the United States.
No US President would want to be the one who "lost" a race to Mars to another country. NASA has already sent their proposed Moon mission vehicle around the Moon in a test of technology, and they're planning to put a permanent presence there, both in orbit and on the surface of the Moon, probably within the next five to ten years.
China can probably afford the propaganda fallout of not getting to the Moon before the US returns to the Moon, but IMO China will definitely be knuckling down to get to Mars first.
The US and China are already in a space race. It's just not getting the media attention that the first space race between the USSR and the US got.
You know, that's a good point about China. My belief is that China has seen its best days, though, and its aging population, with their lower productivity and high dependency, will make it impossible for China to go. But I'll go along with "you never know".
China enjoys promoting itself and sometimes they claim things that are not true (like their hydrogen powered tractor) and sometimes overstate their accomplishments (like landing a device on the far side of the moon).
Russia has stepped out of the race. Europe is pretty much out. In fact - I suppose this is true - the world economy is not in a position to finance two-way manned trips.
If we wanted to colonize something, there are lots of places here on earth. The far north and far south, as I have said, and the world's deserts. Namibia comes to mind with its 2000 mile coastline of desert with one port and no cities. But there are probably lots of other places.
I do not buy the "running out of resources" argument. We'll run out of people before we run out of resources, I think.
In a related comment, the world's first Small Modular Reactor was recently certified. This miniature reactor could power just about anything, anywhere. It need not be near a water source. I see it as a game changer for those populations who do not have a power source. Humans can live anywhere on the planet and live in comfort as long as there is power and food.
Never say never. If we ever figure out cryogenics, it is not impossible.
Technology is just knowlege. There is no reason the ancient Romans could not build railroads but for the lack of knowledge how to build a boiler that could propel a train, etc. All the material was always there. Only the know how was absent.
It is not impossible we will develop the know how to either send someone to Mars quickly. Mars is 13 light-minutes away. It is not impossible that some form of hybernation that slows aging down to a crawl could be discovered.
I am with you. I can't imagine technology developing making it practical to send humans to Mars and back, alive, before the extinction of the human race, but who knows?
Never say never. We have done a lot of "impossible" things so far.
Few people in the public really know what goes on here in the fields of missilry and space exploration. Most of it is designed and executed here.
One huge rocket stage was put on a ocean going barge last week and is going to the Cape for live testing.
In my small town, Toyota has an engine factory and the only other business is Rocketdyne. Rocketdyne also has rocket engines on spacecraft on the way to Mars and on past spacecraft that's gone to Mars.
I think it's in the future. First, they're going back to the moon--and the big rockets that's going to power the capsules have already been made--and one flown.
I think your title is misleading but I understand you're talking about living on Mars rather than just visiting. Unless something totally unforeseen happens (eg. huge asteroid hitting Earth), I'd expect humans to one day visit Mars, just like they visited the Moon. Living there is a totally different ballgame. With today's technology, no ways. But as we know technology is always advancing and it's impossible to predict all advancements centuries or longer in the future. What will technology 100, 500, 5,000 years into the future allow us to do? Nobody knows. Now if you include a defined time period such as in my lifetime or the next 100 years, I'd say no, but never? I can't even make an educated guess.
Please note that we went to the Moon a couple times 50 Years Ago. We haven't gone back for two reasons-- way too expensive in a world with limited econmic resources, and no benefit to go back...We only went there in the first place as a propaganda effort in The Cold War...Our whole initial Space Race was really a disguise for development of reliable Intercontinental Ballistic Missile capabilities. Now we have them. Not much need to go further.
Our space program facilitated the development of computer tech and material science. It allowed improvements in world wide communications, more accurate weather forcasting and geopositioning & survellience tech that helps in ag & mining, among other things....But that's all here on Earth. No such advantages or benefits in going elsewhere.
BTW- a trip to Mars is likely going to be a one way excursion. No way to get there with enough fuel left to get you back. The trip to the moon involved a small secondary vehicle that only had to overcome the Moon's gravity-- 16% of Earth's...Mars' gravity is 40% of Earth's. Huge difference.
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