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I wonder if we'll ever wake up or have we been put to sleep with the new version of SOMA--all the mood elevators and tranquilizers we're prescribed--starting with little kids and continuing on. Is it 1984, all come true?
If you had psychic abilities or have an advanced degree in economics, or just think about this topic a lot, what do you see ahead for the U.S. ten years down the road?
Full recovery?
No recovery, things worse?
A much contracted economy?
A booming green economy?
Life forever changed?
U.S. now a third world economy?
Anarchy?
Things better than ever?
We're living small, driving small and growing more of our own food?
The first/third world concept has nothing to do with the economy of a nation.
Those concepts were used to label the countries that were the U.S. allies during the cold war.
There are many U.S. cities that already have a lower quality of life than many developing countries... I think that Canada is going to receive a massive immigration wave coming from the U.S.
>>depends on what and whose life is being measured. The Dow and broad measures like GNP will continue to rise, thus letting our leaders crow that the economy continues to grow. But that growth will be concentrated in a few people and entities, something we've already seen. Easy credit and the ubiquity of cheaply-made consumer goods, mostly from China, masks the fact that vast numbers of people who consider themselves to be middle-class are either already poor and just don't realize it, or are one missed paycheck or unexpected medical expense from a bankruptcy from which they will not recover.
A much contracted economy?
>>see above. For the privileged, times will be wonderful. For everyone else, their lives, not just their economic status, will contract.
A booming green economy?
>>The green economy will grow because it operates upon common-sense ideas and proves to save money. The primary forces fighting against it are those for whom the status quo is the only way their business and life models can be justified. The "market" tension will result in much of it being co-opted by the old economy, but not all. For an example of co-option, look at what General Motors did to electric cars and the Los Angeles transit system.
Life forever changed?
>>Yes, see above. Further, climate change will change things still more. Climate swings will be more drastic and unpredictable.
U.S. now a third world economy?
>>No, but unrest will grow-- it will be interesting, if not pleasant, to see whether government, financial institutions, and what's left of the US' non-financial business structure will try to pretend that they care what the American people think. We've already seen, with the financial industry's behavior post-crash and the government's enabling of it, that they certainly don't care, because without the genuine opposition from the government and what passes for media news these days, they can get away with paying their top "performers" millions in so-called "bonuses," scarcely a year after their actions nearly melted down the world's economy, and we-- WE-- bailed them out. But we will continue to be misled by Glenn Beck, keith Olbermann, George Will, David Broder, et al., because that is their job.
Anarchy?
>>Probably not. It's possible, but I suspect that inertia and apathy will win out.
Things better than ever?
>>See above. You must be joking.
We're living small, driving small and growing more of our own food?
>>In 10 years, it will be commonplace for owners of McMansions in exurbs (those owners will be lending institutions or, more likely, the federal government) to simply bulldoze them, entire subdivisions of useless houses, and their former owners will either be renting, and very likely living in vastly reduced circumstances, or they will "benefit" from another round of casino mortgage-making, where the mortgage business depends on a paper-thin veneer of documentation to cover fraud and mendacity enabled by the "industry" itself (and no, the government, Fannie/Freddie, or the CRA is NOT the primary actor here, more of an enabler-- the mortgage business is quite capable of creating its own massive fabrications...but I digress). So yeah, most of us will be living smaller, unless we own our existing homes outright by then, i.e., managed to pay it off without a foreclosure.
>>One good thing is that dinosaur-sized SUVs will die out as naturally as did their biological forebears-- it will take only one more gas spike to kill them off for good. $4/gallon gas only put us at half the pump price of other comparable Western industrialized countries, because we weren't smart enough to impose taxes to actually maintain our transportation infrastructure, and oh by the way steer people away from ridiculous levels of consumption. The auto industry was choking in Hummers, Surburbans, Expeditions, King Ranch Specials, and testosterone-fueled Ram pickups. Wait till you see what $8/gallon gas does-- and we as a country are utterly helpless when-- not if-- the real powers in the oil market, the state oil companies, decide to suck some more money out of us. Start picking out your SmartCar now, or move somewhere with a decent mass transit system, or hope you can telecommute...but even there, American companies are dinosaur-slow to change and innovate.
>>Grow more food? Nah, maybe a few people, but we're not looking at a Cormac McCarthy-style apocalypse, just a gradual muddling down of American civilization.
>>Oh, and here's an unsolicited answer to an unasked question, although it ties in with everything else-- we will be dumber and fatter. We will be less well-educated than before because while public education will not outright die, it will be horribly weakened by all manner of forces, from starve-the-beast tax types to social conservatives who think that the creation myths and folk tales of desert people who lived 2,500 years ago should be considered to be genuine science, to teacher's unions that actively fight any genuine attempt to improve the actual teaching of actual children. We already import most of our young, serious brainpower, yet we also employ xenophobic, addle-headed "policies" to chase them away. Some day, they won't even bother coming, because the opportunities will be elsewhere. Meanwhile, welcome to Idiocracy.
Yes, Cyrano, I fear your future while there's little to convince me we're not heading in that direction. Fatter and Dumber and let's not forget, doped up on drugs and medications, too...seems our culture is giving its all to promote these things...
China calls in debt, we don't pay, they attack, we respond, WW3 ensues, end times arrive, and Kristian fanatics cheer from the craters.
China calls in debt, we pay with valueless money, they get mad, we say sorry and get on with using our own resources in our own factories to create a real economy with a progressive tax system to prevent the wealth concentration that got us here in the first place.
China calls in debt, we don't pay, they attack, we respond, WW3 ensues, end times arrive, and Kristian fanatics cheer from the craters.
China calls in debt, we pay with valueless money, they get mad, we say sorry and get on with using our own resources in our own factories to create a real economy with a progressive tax system to prevent the wealth concentration that got us here in the first place.
I like option two. Does it come with eggrolls?
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