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Some of the more astute have been saying right along that any Global Warming & rising co2 levels seen in the past many decades are due to natural phenomenon, and that any man-made contributions are negligible to nonexistent.
We see that, in this unusual year, now 3/4ths completed, there has been a continuation of the rising co2 levels following the same seasonal trends of the past many years, and apparently unaffected by an 8% fall in coal consumption and 10% fall in gasoline consumption.
Isn't it about time to forget the folly of saying Man is responsible for climate change?
The overwhelming evidence of human-caused climate change documents both
current impacts with significant costs and extraordinary future risks to society and natural systems. The scientific community has convened conferences, published reports, spoken out at forums, and proclaimed, through statements by virtually every national scientific academy and relevant major scientific organization—including the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)—that climate change puts the well-being of people of all nations at risk.
The overwhelming evidence of human-caused climate change documents both
current impacts with significant costs and extraordinary future risks to society and natural systems. ]
Absolutely false on several counts:
a) No temp changes occurring now that haven't occurred before, so no need to call on human activity to account for them.
b) Coincidental to increasing temps over the last 140 yrs are the enormous strides in improvement in the human condition in terms of standard of living, increasing longevity, improved agricultural output etc etc.
The biosphere has experienced greatly improved "greening" thanks to the various effects of warming: improved plant efficiency of water usage, longer growing seasons, more rainfall etc etc.
Warmer is better for life. Pretty straight forward logic: increasing biodiversity as you proceed from the cold poles toward the warm equator.
Even warmer in past ages when there was no permanent ice at all on the planet, the biosphere did just fine. No need for panic (except to satisfy a political agenda).
With several hurdles in the data that a co2- driven climate theory can't explain, defending that theory would require some experimental evidence to support it. Logistically difficult to accomplish when you're dealing with the entire atmosphere, there is no such evidence, but....
....The small experience with the "no fly restrictions" following the 9/11 attack supported the notion that any warming caused by co2 was over shadowed by the cooling caused by jet con-trails...Now we have 9-10 months of a world-wide 10% reduction in fossil fuel use and we see temps and co2 levels still rising...
That strongly suggests that co2 elevations are the RESULT of (naturally ) warming temps, not the cause.
Some of the more astute have been saying right along that any Global Warming & rising co2 levels seen in the past many decades are due to natural phenomenon, and that any man-made contributions are negligible to nonexistent.
No, I don't think so and I don't think they are so astute. I think if the so-called more astute who believe that are really as astute as they think they are they would have immediately changed their tunes about what they believe after this corona virus pandemic hit the world and so many cities and countries industries were reduced or discontinued.
Air pollution and pollution in ground and run-off water disappeared from all the cities in countries that reduced/discontinued industry for specific times, and the temperatures at those places changed. Now that they have started resuming industries again their air and water pollution is returning too, and their temperatures are changing again.
So now considering what has happened with the global atmosphere and the reductions and then increases again in man-made pollution and temperatures since March 2020 to today's date, if those people still think that man-made contributions are negligible to nonexistent then all that proves is that they haven't ever been paying any attention at all to what's been happening. They're only demonstrating that they're just a bunch of pompous blow-hards who know nothing and have always been blowing air out of their ears just to make themselves heard.
Please show us some data suggesting pollution improved during this forced industrial hiatus.-- not that "in ground & water pollution" has anything to do with air temps anyway.
It doesn't take much of a search to find data showing that 2020 is on course to be the hottest year on record-- and without a boost from any El Nino like the previous "hottest years" at that-- despite a 10% fall in fossil fuel usage. https://www.scientificamerican.com/a...year-on-record.
..and despite the decreased fossil fuel use, co2 levels continue to rise to all time (in the modern record) highs.
Use this site https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/ne...9727?year=2020 to satisfy yourself that NYC, for instance, despite a near complete shut down in road traffic early on in the pandemic, continued to have warmer than average temps thru 2020.
The industrial age is three centuries old. The A part of GW will last at least centuries after the last fossil fuels are burned. The complex feedback loops of human activity and slow global processes are not convenient for exact amounts of blame.
That strongly suggests that co2 elevations are the RESULT of (naturally ) warming temps, not the cause.
Uh.. no. Didn't we already discuss this over and over already? Do we need to pull up the ice core graphs again showing that even in this interglacial period and in the one about 130K years ago, global temperatures have been hotter than they are now. Yet in all of those time periods, the CO2 level never rose much above 280 PPM. Yet the present CO2 level now is mysteriously nearly 50 percent higher.
Did the laws of physics change in the last couple hundred years.. or maybe some guy on the internet (the OP) has too simple of a model. A rise in temperature has never in the last 800K years where we have the ice core data caused the rise in CO2 like we see now.
Regarding natural emissions, if you mean record forest fires in the Western US (which emit CO2) Ok.. good point.
Easier to buy that some guy on the internet came up with an incorrect theory that is way to simple for a complex non linear system..
And the same naivete from you, Walt. Ice core data have HUGE error bars. Most experts think co2 changes LAG behind temp changes by 800-1000 yrs- ie- co2 levels depend on temps, not temps on co2)
Theories have to account for all the data, not just some of it.
I brought this up again because we have this second "experimental" manipulation of fossil fuel use...and NO effect on the temps or co2 levels. (BTW- plenty of big forest fires in recent years, and no effect on co2 levels.)...Please explain the falling temps from 1880-1920, and from 1940-1980, despite continually rising co2 levels. https://www.bing.com/images/search?v...RST&ajaxhist=0
Greenland ice cores provide a high-quality high-resolution estimate of past changes in temperatures, allowing more precise comparisons with observed temperature records than most other climate proxies. While current temperatures are likely still below the highs in the early Holocene around 7,000 years ago, they are clearly higher than any temperatures experienced in Greenland over the past 2,000 years.
FYI, while temp is measured by proxy, CO2 is measured directly. Note again.. if temperatures 7000 years ago were higher than today, why did that time period NOT see the same high CO2 level as we have now.. Did the laws of physics change between then and now.. Simple and hard to believe its not completely obvious that its because we are burning fossil fuel. Temperature did not cause a similar rise in CO2 then, it will not now either.
Quote:
Most experts think co2 changes LAG behind temp changes by 800-1000 yrs- ie- co2 levels depend on temps, not temps on co2)
If CO2 is a green house gas (it is), increasing the CO2 concentration will cause an increase in temp at the surface by trapping energy. This is the forcing function that CO2 plays. What you described above is the feedback mechanism.
I see the coal data posted by the OP only goes back to April which was near the height of the shutdown.
Im guessing most of us looking here are from the US and see the "shutdown" we have here..
A while ago I looked at the covid cases per population of the five largest economies on the planet which are the US, China, Japan, Germany, India. We know China is the largest producer of CO2 on the planet so how has China done and the other largest economies done with the pandemic.
I picked Covid cases per million population as this seems to be what has driven shut downs in the US.
Note also that by the end of January, the pandemic was pretty much public info and each contry had the same starting point so this also is a report card on how well each country has handled the pandemic.
You can see that China who produces the most CO2 on the planet has a factor of 328 (ie a HUGE difference) less Covid cases per capitia compare to the US.
Japan also has a huge amount less cases per capita compared to the US (factor of 34.5 less).
The next two countries still had a huge around 6.5 times less cases per capita.
If there is even a slight correlation to covid cases per population to economic shutdown, the major CO2 producers are likely pretty much running back to normal.
I would speculate this also has something to do with the CO2 numbers not looking that different than normal.. because the major contributors of CO2 have the pandemic under control (at least at the moment) and likely are putting out CO2 just like normal. You cant judge the world based on what you see here in the US and our outstanding leadership. Note that I am speculating there.. but gave my reasons why and could be wrong.
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