Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Are those numbers avg sales value per home per year? It will be interesting to see how the backlog of foreclosures hitting the market this year will affect the number for 2011. What constitutes the Greater Greenville area?
Those numbers are an average sale price of resale homes sold in the given year. I break it down by quarter on my website, along with average days on market, and number of homes sold. I also split new construction from resale, because a builder can easily put a house in the MLS before they even come close to breaking ground. Including new construction would also be inaccurate since builders don't report "incentives" in the MLS or anywhere else for that matter. That is the problem with a lot of housing data out there, they lump new construction with resale. They are literally including apples and oranges in the same data. Believe me, I'd love to do the same, since it wouldn't take me nearly as long to put together the data.
Being that I use the Greater Greenville MLS, the Greater Greenville area is really defined by our "coverage area".
Is that the same "backlog" of foreclosures that was supposed to hit in 2009 and 2010? Greenville County, as of November 2010, continues to be below the state and national averages for rate of foreclosure. 29% below the state average, and 25% below the national average.
Is that the same "backlog" of foreclosures that was supposed to hit in 2009 and 2010? Greenville County, as of November 2010, continues to be below the state and national averages for rate of foreclosure. 29% below the state average, and 25% below the national average.
Thanks for the clarifications.
I don't know about foreclosure backlog in GSP specifically, but have heard that a LOT of foreclosures are just circulating within the banks and haven't hit the streets yet. In a holding pattern, if you will, for at least the last year. I guess they are trying to wait out the market hoping that they can recoup maximum value when they finally finalize the foreclosure. Also, my remark includes those stalled by the robo-signing problem, which should begin to come online. Again, no clue how this impacts this area.
Slow and steady has always been the story in Greenville. I just compiled the MLS stats for 4Q10 today.
From 2003-2010, resale homes in the Greater Greenville area have appreciated by an average of 1.44% per year.
Resale Homes Average Sold Price
2003 - $149,055
2004 - $147,404
2005 - $159,920
2006 - $163,024
2007 - $166,979
2008 - $164,878
2009 - $153,516
2010 - $163,490
Are these numbers based solely on price? If that's the case then it seems to me that the data are flat, and possibly don't accurately reflect actual market conditions. For one thing, if a larger percentage of higher end homes are sold one year relative to the previous year, the average sales price will be skewed upwards, even if there is a loss in home value overall compared to the previous year (if the percentage is large enough). It's hard for me to reconcile your data that shows the average home price in 2010 almost as high as the average bubble price, against the backdrop of today's market in which I consistently see significant price reductions on non-foreclosure active listings.
Are these numbers based solely on price? If that's the case then it seems to me that the data are flat, and possibly don't accurately reflect actual market conditions. For one thing, if a larger percentage of higher end homes are sold one year relative to the previous year, the average sales price will be skewed upwards, even if there is a loss in home value overall compared to the previous year (if the percentage is large enough). It's hard for me to reconcile your data that shows the average home price in 2010 almost as high as the average bubble price, against the backdrop of today's market in which I consistently see significant price reductions on non-foreclosure active listings.
Very rarely, if ever, do we see a change in listing or sale distribution by price. By that, I mean that I've never really seen a spike in or drop off of higher priced listings, when I don't see the same in moderately or lower priced listings. 73% of active listings are $300,000 or less. That's a big percentage, so it would be very difficult for a few higher priced listings to skew the average by that much.
Obviously in my job, I do CMAs for sellers all the time. Very rarely have I had to tell people that their homes have lost money during their ownership. The only times I do see this is when they've owned their home for less than 2-3 years, they live in certain areas of Greenville which have seen less growth in recent years, and those sellers in communities which are still under construction since they're forced to compete with new construction. Even the foreclosure issue is irrelevant, since there are almost always normal sales to go by, and very rarely do I see a neighborhood that has been so plagued with foreclosures that there aren't any normal sales to use as comps.
For instance, I have a listing appointment today at 1pm. These folks purchased their home almost 5 years ago. They paid $179,000. Based on the MLS statistics I provided on this thread (1.44% average appreciation per year since 2003), their home should be worth $196,014. I did the market analysis for their home, and based on the most recent comparable sales in their neighborhood, their home is worth $195,571. Hardly a difference worth noting.
I don't know about foreclosure backlog in GSP specifically, but have heard that a LOT of foreclosures are just circulating within the banks and haven't hit the streets yet. In a holding pattern, if you will, for at least the last year. I guess they are trying to wait out the market hoping that they can recoup maximum value when they finally finalize the foreclosure. Also, my remark includes those stalled by the robo-signing problem, which should begin to come online. Again, no clue how this impacts this area.
You are correct. Look towards Q3 of this year for foreclosures to really hit the market. I'm surprised realtors haven't added that into their pricing equations.
You are correct. Look towards Q3 of this year for foreclosures to really hit the market. I'm surprised realtors haven't added that into their pricing equations.
Once I actually see it happen in our local market, then I'll start reflecting that in my market analysis for my potential clients. However, every year around this time I hear that the flood of foreclosures is coming. By June of every year, everyone's still wondering where it is.
Once I actually see it happen in our local market, then I'll start reflecting that in my market analysis for my potential clients. However, every year around this time I hear that the flood of foreclosures is coming. By June of every year, everyone's still wondering where it is.
Do you know how many homes sold in the last month in Greenville county? Just curious.
Very rarely, if ever, do we see a change in listing or sale distribution by price. By that, I mean that I've never really seen a spike in or drop off of higher priced listings, when I don't see the same in moderately or lower priced listings. 73% of active listings are $300,000 or less. That's a big percentage, so it would be very difficult for a few higher priced listings to skew the average by that much.
In retrospect I see that I used the wrong terminology. By higher-end home I was targeting the upper end of what I could afford, not viewing from your market perspective.
The point I was trying to make is illustrated by the following example.
Once I actually see it happen in our local market, then I'll start reflecting that in my market analysis for my potential clients. However, every year around this time I hear that the flood of foreclosures is coming. By June of every year, everyone's still wondering where it is.
According to the Greenville News, who legally has to publish foreclosure sales,
154 home were foreclosed on on 10/4/10. This is all the foreclosures for the previous month.
466 homes sold
154 foreclosures
That seems significant to me. Am I missing something?
The point I was trying to make is illustrated by the following example.
I totally understand where you are coming from, but your illustration isn't based on any actual data.
Even if I broke the average sale price down by neighborhood, it wouldn't yield any better results than the overall average that I provided.
I'm not even sure how I could break down the data in a way that would mesh with your example, since I'm not sure it exists.
With 73% of homes priced below $300,000, it would take a few ridiculously high-dollar sales (which don't really exist in Greenville) to skew the data by the amount you're talking about. Homes over $700,000 only accounted for .5% of sales last year, so that's definitely not going to be able to skew the average sale price by any measurable amount. In 2006 (technically the peak of our market by number of homes sold), homes over $700,000 only accounted for .6% of all home sales. Again, not even close to enough to skew the average.
According to the Greenville News, who legally has to publish foreclosure sales,
154 home were foreclosed on on 10/4/10. This is all the foreclosures for the previous month.
466 homes sold
154 foreclosures
That seems significant to me. Am I missing something?
You know those aren't actually sold, right? I mean, 154 foreclosures didn't sell to new owners, their interest was typically "sold" back to the bank. 154 out of how many total houses in Greenville County? Comparing that number to the number of people who sold their homes to a buyer makes no sense. They're completely irrelevant to each other.
In reference to your other question though, there were 407 sales in December 2010.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
