Quote:
Originally Posted by whtviper1
The numbers are the numbers - and have remained consistent for over 30 years. What is interesting about this debate, is like many other threads - people want facts. But, when facts are provided - people just don't want to believe them. It is what it is. The data is overwhelming.
|
There are all kinds of facts. Statistics are one kind of information, usually based on a sampling of available information, utilizing a specific methodology and set of parameters. All three of those factors... sample size, methodology, parameters... can significantly distort the information produced if not selected wisely. And of course interpretation of the statistical data can be highly subjective.
Meanwhile, there is another kind of fact that is entirely subjective, yet which can access truths that are not always available to statistics, and that is people's personal experiences, such as the ones they post here. In the long, free-ranging debate here on CDF over the cost of Winter season visits to Hawai'i versus Summer season visits to the state, there have been many kinds of facts presented about people's experiences with Winter rates being the highest of the year which you have dismissed out of hand, because they didn't fit your personal paradigm about statistical data. But those people's experiences are factual to them, they're more real to them than your dataset is, and it's entirely possible they are actually pointing at weaknesses in the statistical data you present.
Here are just a few of the facts I recall various members posting here which you have dismissed or ignored in the past based on your regard for statistics...
- Room rate quotes from key hotels showing highest rates in winter.
- Photograph of hotel sign referring to higher winter High Season rates.
- Link to B&B web page referring to higher winter High Season rates.
- Numerous references to vacation rentals at condos, B&Bs, ohanas and other non-hotel accommodations.
- Links to government officials stating that they really have no idea how big the non-hotel market is.
- Travel writers widely reporting on how the abundance of package deals makes summer travel to Hawai'i less expensive for average travelers than winter, in general.
- Numerous complaints about winter rates jumping for non-hotel accommodations
Quote:
|
I'll throw out another fact for you.
|
More accurately, it's another statistic. It may or may not be a fact.
Quote:
Average visitor stay, January 2013 - 10.56 days. February 9.36 days. July 2013 - 9.37 days.
Not a big difference.
|
Without knowing more about how the information was collected, etc., it's really not terribly meaningful, and certainly doesn't address the question of why there are differences. Nor does this kind of macro view, lumping everyone into a single large statistic, give any insight into the different patterns of the way various populations travel, and the subtle ways that visitor patterns in different parts of the state vary.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MauiPartTimer
Viper,
These "visitors by months" stats don't tell the whole story because they don't account for the length of stays during these months...
...As far as the room occupancy stats you're turning to, do they include condo/home rentals (both on and off the books)?
|
Ding, ding, ding! I think we have a winner here!
Quote:
Our experience renting out our South Maui condo (and that of our management company and all the condos/homes they manage is as follows:- Busiest - Dec-Mar
- Next busiest - Jun-Aug
- Slowest - everything else
|
Yes, this is exactly the kind of pattern I've heard people describe over and over again, both as visitors/renters and as owners/landlords. Are they wrong in what they report because there's a statistic from somewhere that says something else? I really don't think so.
Quote:
|
I think the correct answer to the original question is more like "More people are coming and going during the summer and staying in hotels, but winter time has as many longer-term visitors on the island at any one time and they're typically staying in rentals."
|
That would seem to be a reasonable conclusion from all the available known facts.
Quote:
|
I'm not sure why you won't agree to a more nuanced answer.
|
Some people see the world in terms of black/white, right/wrong, yes/no, me/you, us/them dichotomies, while others see a continuous spectrum of shades of... more than grays... call it shades of colors. The first view is synthetic, the second is naturalistic. The first is digital, the second is analog. The first view is based in a kind of fiction, the second is real life.
Statistics can be useful, of course, when used to illuminate and educate. When used as a club to subdue disagreement, however, or to make people wrong, I'm clear they can do more harm than good.
And in this specific case, I can see the statistic about Maui summer hotel rates being equally true and peacefully co-existing with people's anecdotes about the higher cost of winter accommodations, because they are obviously looking at different things, from different perspectives.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
