Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
What do you think the people of Hawaii are going to do about the shut down? Revolt? Bolt for the mainland? What are their options?
Have you noticed the aggressively quick steps a number of mortgage lenders have been taking to offer payment deferrals? The law and lenders both abhor foreclosures. We just emerged from mortgage crisis and lessons learned about costs of foreclosures and evictions and vacant properties are fresh. Nasty business. Better to restructure loans than take back properties.
Other consumer lending is similar. Lot of consumer debt was written off at crushing losses just a decade ago.
And, back to politics, it’s an election year. No politicians of either party want to be the “bad guys” with balloting just months away. Thus we see ‘stimulus checks’, tax deferrals, eviction moratoriums’ ... etc etc popping into focus. There will be a negative national gdp because of this for the first time since WWII ... politicians who just a couple years ago were screaming about debt are now spending future money like drunken sailors. But it’ll serve the short term purpose ...
Whtviper is correctly observing the raging unemployment vulnerability of Hawaii as being higher than other states. However, I do not assume that translates to any much greater longevity of unemployment than elsewhere. Tourism may lag some in recovery, so perhaps increased lingering effects.
Meanwhile, though tourism is king in the state, the #2 contributor to gdp revenue is military spending and services rendered to military. Military spending and services are pretty nearly unaffected by the covid shutdown in any long term picture.
And, finally, family culture in Hawaii is pretty damn strong. If being supportive of each other is possible, it will be done.
No matter where any individual is in the world or their cultural background, limiting a persons liberty goes against human nature. Mankind does have an amazing ability to adapt to adversity, but there is a threshold for how long a individual will tolerate the lack of liberty.
But we do depend on tourism for the majority of the overall state income. Without some sort of fast test for the virus, we can't let in a bunch of tourists from all over the world. We don't have the depth of medical facilities if there should be a big spike in cases. This lack of quick testing is going to delay opening the tourist sector longer than the construction sector.
I believe Nevada will open sooner than Hawaii - that'll be a good indication to what will happen when Hawaii reopens. Testing is key - for all we know a lot more people have gotten this and are now immune. We may wake up any day (or not) and there may be a bona fide treatment. A vaccine unfortunately is a year away.
Quote:
Originally Posted by hotzcatz
Considering how backlogged the construction industry had been, they should still be able to find work and perhaps some of the folks who were working in the tourist industry can switch to construction.
That has/will certainly change.
Quote:
Originally Posted by hotzcatz
Over the past decade or so, I've met quite a few remote computer programmers. They control computers remotely and like being here since they can access the down time on the mainland computers much easier than being in the same time zone as the mainland computers.
Practically 100% of tech companies have a hiring freeze right now. The nearly 100,000 employee company for which I work does not allow hiring from Hawaii (although there are a small handful from acquisitions) - I had to use one of my California properties addresses to get hired - and pay my own way back and forth to San Francisco a week or two a month (when we could travel). Even in good times, Hawaii residents are a very long shot to get hired by mainland tech companies - the odds improve if you are long term employee in the mainland moving to Hawaii
What do you think the people of Hawaii are going to do about the shut down? Revolt? Bolt for the mainland? What are their options?
Have you noticed the aggressively quick steps a number of mortgage lenders have been taking to offer payment deferrals? The law and lenders both abhor foreclosures. We just emerged from mortgage crisis and lessons learned about costs of foreclosures and evictions and vacant properties are fresh. Nasty business. Better to restructure loans than take back properties.
Other consumer lending is similar. Lot of consumer debt was written off at crushing losses just a decade ago.
And, back to politics, it’s an election year. No politicians of either party want to be the “bad guys” with balloting just months away. Thus we see ‘stimulus checks’, tax deferrals, eviction moratoriums’ ... etc etc popping into focus. There will be a negative national gdp because of this for the first time since WWII ... politicians who just a couple years ago were screaming about debt are now spending future money like drunken sailors. But it’ll serve the short term purpose ...
Whtviper is correctly observing the raging unemployment vulnerability of Hawaii as being higher than other states. However, I do not assume that translates to any much greater longevity of unemployment than elsewhere. Tourism may lag some in recovery, so perhaps increased lingering effects.
Meanwhile, though tourism is king in the state, the #2 contributor to gdp revenue is military spending and services rendered to military. Military spending and services are pretty nearly unaffected by the covid shutdown in any long term picture.
And, finally, family culture in Hawaii is pretty damn strong. If being supportive of each other is possible, it will be done.
While this is true in terms of spending for those military personnel (and dependents) on island, military response measures have and will continue to hurt the State's economy.
For instance--tied to tourism and dollars spent in hotels and the like--there are no more port visits by ships at Pearl Harbor for the time being, which means thousands of fewer Sailors and Marines spending money at hotels, bars, Uber/taxis, etc.
Additionally, I foresee RIMPAC 2020 being canceled (yes, the word as of 30 MAR was that it was "still on," but truth is that they don't know and even if it does happens, so long as Hawaii has the quarantine restrictions in place, this will mean nobody leaving base to spend money out in town. Note, RIMPAC 2018 saw 47 US and foreign Naval ships operating off the coast of Hawaii, which contributed at least $50 million in economic impact: https://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/story/...des-in-hawaii/ ; https://www.bizjournals.com/pacific/...ontribute.html That represented 25,000 personnel across 46 surface ships and numerous other Naval and land platforms to include military personnel from 26 countries.
Then you have military related travel to Hawaii affected (mission essential travel is still on, but the bulk of travel has stopped), which hurts the State's bottom line as well.
Condo buildings along the West Side of Maui are freezing big projects like seawall repairs and cutting back on landscaping and routine maintenance. The pools are closed, and common areas are off limits, so why not? No need to clean stuff that isn't being used. Hours & pay for building managers/workers are being cut as well.
The concern is that if owners lose their incomes the revenue stream from HOA dues will shrink so it is prudent to try to reduce expenditures now.
Undoubtedly this is happening all across Hawaii and the mainland as well.
Families - natural and hanai - stick together and help each other out. There's a list of folks who we will take in if they need it and they'd do the same for us. We also take care of our neighbors to a lesser extent. Mostly with sharing food or tools and helping with various projects. That happens all across the state so a percentage will be taken care of by their families.
But we do depend on tourism for the majority of the overall state income. Without some sort of fast test for the virus, we can't let in a bunch of tourists from all over the world. We don't have the depth of medical facilities if there should be a big spike in cases. This lack of quick testing is going to delay opening the tourist sector longer than the construction sector.
Considering how backlogged the construction industry had been, they should still be able to find work and perhaps some of the folks who were working in the tourist industry can switch to construction. It would be good to try to source jobs from sectors other than tourism. Over the past decade or so, I've met quite a few remote computer programmers. They control computers remotely and like being here since they can access the down time on the mainland computers much easier than being in the same time zone as the mainland computers.
Yup.
And good point about the construction industry comeback potential ... along with military gdp % stability.
No matter where any individual is in the world or their cultural background, limiting a persons liberty goes against human nature. Mankind does have an amazing ability to adapt to adversity, but there is a threshold for how long a individual will tolerate the lack of liberty.
Ah yes: human nature. And I agree it all goes against the grain. But you still haven’t identified where people of Hawaii will go. What are their [practical] options? What do you identify as the “threshold” for revolt? And what would sustain a revolt?
Facts is, officer, there is no option but to struggle through.
While this is true in terms of spending for those military personnel (and dependents) on island, military response measures have and will continue to hurt the State's economy.
For instance--tied to tourism and dollars spent in hotels and the like--there are no more port visits by ships at Pearl Harbor for the time being, which means thousands of fewer Sailors and Marines spending money at hotels, bars, Uber/taxis, etc.
Additionally, I foresee RIMPAC 2020 being canceled (yes, the word as of 30 MAR was that it was "still on," but truth is that they don't know and even if it does happens, so long as Hawaii has the quarantine restrictions in place, this will mean nobody leaving base to spend money out in town. Note, RIMPAC 2018 saw 47 US and foreign Naval ships operating off the coast of Hawaii, which contributed at least $50 million in economic impact: https://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/story/...des-in-hawaii/ ; https://www.bizjournals.com/pacific/...ontribute.html That represented 25,000 personnel across 46 surface ships and numerous other Naval and land platforms to include military personnel from 26 countries.
Then you have military related travel to Hawaii affected (mission essential travel is still on, but the bulk of travel has stopped), which hurts the State's bottom line as well.
Yes, but you are identifying short-term factors that will return to normal within a few months. The shut down is to truncate the spread. Then, while treatments and vaccines are being developed, testing will ramp up and contact-tracing will be executed with intensity.
My point about the military is that it represents the 2nd biggest contributor to Hawaii’s gdp, which will not lag even if tourism recovery is delayed.
We are currently living in a ghost town. Throughout history, when the gold or silver runs out, the residents abandon the town and look elsewhere for opportunity. All the hotels, restaurants, shops that are now closed and boarded up are just remnants of the past.
As of today there is 37% unemployment and this is only a month in. This shutdown in not sustainable beyond a few more weeks. Our local government is operating as if we have the usual arrival numbers of 30,000 per day. Hart wants another 100 mil for a change order on the train. Before this economic collapse we were already dealing with out of control spending, infrastructure decay and unfunded pension liabilities. A 20 percent pay cut is a gift to state employees and also completely unsustainable. Unless we quickly get arrival numbers up to where the were, it's going to take a mass exodus of the population and extreme austerity to find some equilibrium.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
