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"We believe COVID-19 herd immunity (>60% of population immune) will be reached in the US during summer 2021 (Jul-Sep 2021).
At the time herd immunity is reached, roughly half of the immunity will be achieved through natural infection, and the other half will be achieved through vaccination.
New infections may become minimal before herd immunity is reached (Jun-Aug 2021). But due to imported cases and localized clusters, it is unlikely that new infections will drop to zero until 2022.
Deaths may drop to low levels even earlier (May-Jul 2021), in part due to a vaccine distribution strategy that initially prioritizes high-risk individuals. Once deaths fall to minimal levels, we may begin seeing a relaxation of restrictions.
Summarizing the above findings, our best estimate of a complete “return to normal” in the US is mid-summer 2021 (Jun-Aug 2021).
We estimate around one-third of the US population (~110 million) will have been infected by the SARS-CoV-2 virus by the end of 2021. That is an additional 40 million infections since mid-December 2020.
This translates to a final US COVID-19 death toll of roughly 500,000 (+/-100k) reported deaths, or ~200,000 additional deaths since mid-December 2020."
Although Youyang does say this:
Disclaimers
The author is not an epidemiologist.
The author is not a public health expert.
This writeup has not been peer-reviewed in an academic journal.
Only publicly available data are used.
The results presented here are merely estimates based on a set of assumptions, so please use caution when utilizing the results.
For the majority of the assumptions with numerical values, the exact numerical values have relatively minor impacts on the final results (e.g. changing vaccine efficacy from 85% to 90% results in a 10-day shift in when herd immunity is reached).
If any of the assumptions used to generate these estimates do not hold, then the results may be drastically different.
These estimates are subject to change based on new data/evidence.
With that said - I'm none of the above either -
But, I'll agree it is summer 2021 is the likely date Covid numbers come substantially down. I don't agree with a lot of the numbers he put forth though.
We may already have 100,000,000 or more infections already, given 40% of individuals never show a symptom.
It is looking likely anyone who wants a vaccine can get one by end of June. 40% likely won't do it though.
And - we know summertime brings a dip in the wave regardless of vaccine.
From the most recent Department of Health and Social Services weekly Covid update for Alaska:
(Hawaii officials would be horrified if these numbers applied to the Aloha state)
“Travelers with COVID-19
Test positivity among travelers arriving back to Alaska has increased sharply in recent weeks, following increases in case rates across the United States, meaning that a higher proportion of people on flights to Alaska have COVID-19. Recently, around 1 in 16 passengers (6.14%) tested on arrival from out-of-state to airports in Alaska have COVID-19.”
Apparently there won't be changes after all. If you don't have your test results in hand when departure is imminent, don't get on the plane. You will have to quarantine. (The one change is that quarantine is being reduced from 14 days to 10 days.) This won't help most visitors who's average stay is 7 days but it will be good for returning islanders.
I can’t believe this Covid nonsense is still being used to control us. I figured more people would have woken up by now. We really are a nation of mindless drones who only does what they are told.
Kauai has now proposed a 4-day quarantine. If a follow-up test is negative, no more quarantine. The immediate downside is that you would have to spend your first 3 nights in a designated quarantine hotel.
Kauai has now proposed a 4-day quarantine. If a follow-up test is negative, no more quarantine. The immediate downside is that you would have to spend your first 3 nights in a designated quarantine hotel.
In addition to a negative pre travel test. I don’t think many would/will bite when they can go to another island without
that requirement. Quarantine hotel sounds quite unappealing!
In addition to a negative pre travel test. I don’t think many would/will bite when they can go to another island without
that requirement. Quarantine hotel sounds quite unappealing!
If you are quarantined at a resort-bubble hotel like Timbers, it wouldn't be too bad. You would have the full run of the 450 acre resort including the restaurants. The ocean is (surprisingly) off-limits though.
Kauai has now proposed a 4-day quarantine. If a follow-up test is negative, no more quarantine. The immediate downside is that you would have to spend your first 3 nights in a designated quarantine hotel.
This only helps wealthy returning residents and will not move the needle on tourism. The islands largest employer, Grand Hyatt is closed indefinitely and will not operate as a bubble hotel.
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