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Over the past month, the average number of daily deaths in the U.S have dropped steadily from over 2,000 to around 950 as of now. Today was the first day since March that had less than 500 deaths (although deaths are often undercounted on Sundays) in the entire U.S. However, the number of daily new cases is remaining pretty fairly steady or even increasing dramatically in some states. The only exception is the hardest hit states in the Northeast seeing a steady decrease in new cases in conjuction with their very sharp decline in daily deaths.
There are two ways this can happen 1) Virus is still spreading but mutating into a less dangerous form which means less severe cases that lead to death or 2) Virus growth rate is actually declining so the increase in new cases just entirely due to an increase in testing.
Here are the stats: any medical person, scientist, statistician or lay person: go ahead and give your own two cents but please keep it civil .
Well, we know there is an increase in testing, in at least some locations, so that's part of it. The other thing can be true also.
But it's a weird pile of timing and situation...dead people today were sick 18 days ago - not today. (These are rough average numbers, but just making the point...) If we have 1000 dead now, then the number of sick 18 days ago depends totally on your guess at the death rate, but most experts agree it's not lower than 0.1% nor higher than 1.0% in the USA - so that puts you at something like 100K sick to 1M sick - 18 days ago. 1000 of them died. 85% got better a week ago. Some stragglers remain.
The "positive" number goes up by 20-25K every day - that hasn't changed for a month, including 18 days ago - so that appears to be as fast as we can tabulate results, regardless of the actual number of sick people. You can see that (18 days ago) the number of new cases was likely 10x the number of positive tests - an error so huge, that your guess at the rate of death hardly matters.
Bottom line - I hope it's "dying out" - there's some decent anecdotal evidence that that's happening - but you cannot determine it from the worldometer data.
“One of the reasons why this mutation is of interest is because it mirrors a large deletion that arose in the 2003 SARS outbreak,” said Lim, an assistant professor at ASU’s Biodesign Institute.
During the middle and late phases of the SARS epidemic, SARS-CoV accumulated mutations that attenuated the virus. Scientists believe that a weakened virus that causes less severe disease may have a selective advantage if it is able to spread efficiently through populations by people who are infected unknowingly.
Yes. Both.
The increase in testing will turn up more cases. Like this is a surprise.
And yes, the virus has significantly weakened over time. As viruses usually do.
And yes, asymptomatic spreaders is a fairy tale the public health professionals have been anxious to promote. Although, WHO has backed off on this.
There will absolutely be an increase in new infections. I won't argue with that. As we come out of hiding and are exposed to the world once again, we will be exposed to things. The virus isn't going away. But the cases will be milder, and will result in more people among the population who will have then developed at least a partial immunity to it.
In other words, the crisis is over, people. As much as the politicians and the medical "experts" don't want to admit it. Get back to living your lives.
Last edited by Mick St John; 06-08-2020 at 06:13 PM..
Well, here's a thought. The virus might not actually be weakening at all. It's just that a lot more people have been exposed to it than we knew, and the virus has already taken the lives of most of the weakest and most vulnerable who were exposed. Future deaths from the virus will be harder to come by since the virus has already taken most of the "easy pickings".
The flip side to that theory, chas - is that the people that died did so because they had a more "deadly" version - and a virus doesn't benefit from killing its host. So the more "deadly" version keeps dying with the host it kills, while more mild versions survive and become the "more common" version Both things are true at the same time.
But no virus that kills all the hosts will exist very long, so it's natural that it moves toward "less deadly."
The flip side to that theory, chas - is that the people that died did so because they had a more "deadly" version - and a virus doesn't benefit from killing its host. So the more "deadly" version keeps dying with the host it kills, while more mild versions survive and become the "more common" version Both things are true at the same time.
But no virus that kills all the hosts will exist very long, so it's natural that it moves toward "less deadly."
I think you're right. That's the explanation I've been hearing.
I can't speak for other states, but here in ME I have been tracking the age related stats. The percentage of infections are declining in the upper age groups, and increasing in the younger age groups. Even the under 20 age group has doubled from less than 3% to almost 6%.
I can't say for certain, but I am inclined to believe that this change in the percentages is due, at least in part, to the attitudes and behaviors of those in the upper and lower age ranges. I think those in the upper age ranges take this more seriously and are more inclined to heed the isolation and distancing guidelines, while those in the lower age groups are *less* inclined to do so.
Given that the younger age groups are statistically more likely to survive***, then it would make sense that you can have a rising infection rate together with a lower death rate.
Consider also the rising rate of testing. The more you test, the more infections you will find. Combined with the above, it makes more sense than assuming a mutation.
***(Relative 'youth' is NOT a *guarantee* of survival- we recently had a 30 year-old die from it.)
Over the past month, the average number of daily deaths in the U.S have dropped steadily from over 2,000 to around 950 as of now. Today was the first day since March that had less than 500 deaths (although deaths are often undercounted on Sundays) in the entire U.S. However, the number of daily new cases is remaining pretty fairly steady or even increasing dramatically in some states. The only exception is the hardest hit states in the Northeast seeing a steady decrease in new cases in conjuction with their very sharp decline in daily deaths.
There are two ways this can happen 1) Virus is still spreading but mutating into a less dangerous form which means less severe cases that lead to death or 2) Virus growth rate is actually declining so the increase in new cases just entirely due to an increase in testing.
Here are the stats: any medical person, scientist, statistician or lay person: go ahead and give your own two cents but please keep it civil .
Quote:
Originally Posted by Arktikos
According to this Italian doctor it is:
..Dr. Alberto Zangrillo, the head of intensive care at the San Raffaele hospital in Milan in Lombardy (the epicenter of Italy’s coronavirus outbreak), caused a stir on Sunday by telling Italian media that a study by his colleague had shown that the virus was losing its potency.
Zangrillo, who is well-known for being the personal doctor of Italy’s former President Silvio Berlusconi, said the study showed the virus was weakening and that, “in reality, from the clinical point of view, the virus no longer exists.”
Entropy is a gradual decline into disorder. It's a tendency that things that work eventually don't work, breakdown, get corrupted.
Somewhere in all the "news" about Covid-19, a doctor or researcher said that there were three distinct types of Covid-19; it mutated. I feel that I had Covid-19 because I was sick for a week and had every symptom. But I got better at home, and later took a Covid-19 test at a hospital and their lab couldn't find any detectible amount of the virus in my body.
By Zangrillo saying "the virus was weakening" was he actually saying the mutated strain of the virus is at the "cold" level and not the "Wuhan kill you in 14 days" level?
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Entropy II
