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Old 11-01-2020, 05:00 PM
 
9,329 posts, read 4,162,667 times
Reputation: 8224

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From Dr. Emily Oster, a professor who specializes in data-driven approaches to decision-making.


All Your COVID-19 Questions, Answered
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/med...ed/ar-BB16XI1M
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Old 11-01-2020, 06:53 PM
 
4,038 posts, read 1,905,409 times
Reputation: 8701
Ok, I'm not going to nitpick the details, and thank you for posting that - but it's from July. The data is from BEFORE July.


3 months may not seem long - but in COVID time, it's quite a while. And much of that information is dated, updated, confirmed, or completely wrong. I cannot recommend that link at the moment - too much has changed. The main thing - very early one - the gave me pause - was this phrase:


fatality rates among everyone who is hospitalized, even younger people, are very high.

That was true, once upon time (their data is from June or earlier). No longer. Now, it's quite low. I would hate for someone to see that site as their ONLY reference - and then change their life based on that info. It's simply incorrect now.


There are many - many - sources of reliable info, and C-D is probably NOT one of them - except to recommend that you read the most recent data from the CDC (or equivalent in other nations) to see the latest.


Of course, if you believe it's a large conspiracy, and the CDC is in on it, then that won't help you. If you're a normal person, though, it'll get you where you need to be.
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Old 11-02-2020, 12:30 PM
 
12,022 posts, read 11,629,874 times
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You have to take the full sentence. The fatality rate is high if you require hospitalization.

It's about 8 percent now. It used to be over 25 percent. There was a shortage of hospital beds in the Spring. It could easily go back up if the patients can't get treatment or access to the ICU.


Even if you take just the very young, the fatality rate among those hospitalized is 10x higher than flu.
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Old 11-02-2020, 04:44 PM
 
4,038 posts, read 1,905,409 times
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The fatality rate is high if you require hospitalization.

I read the whole sentence. And I'm saying - it's not "high" in the sense the author meant. There are many - many - other points of outdated info in that article. It's not a "bad" article - and it was great at the time (JUNE) - but it is inadequate - and in same cases wrong - today.


Today's hospital death percent is about 2.5%, provable a number of ways with public data, 30 seconds of thought*, or several peer reviewed papers.



I'm not arguing that the disease isn't serious - it is. I'm just saying - that link is outdated.
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Old 11-05-2020, 07:13 AM
 
Location: NJ
23,918 posts, read 33,748,406 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by roodd279 View Post
The fatality rate is high if you require hospitalization.

I read the whole sentence. And I'm saying - it's not "high" in the sense the author meant. There are many - many - other points of outdated info in that article. It's not a "bad" article - and it was great at the time (JUNE) - but it is inadequate - and in same cases wrong - today.


Today's hospital death percent is about 2.5%, provable a number of ways with public data, 30 seconds of thought*, or several peer reviewed papers.



I'm not arguing that the disease isn't serious - it is. I'm just saying - that link is outdated.
Thanks for your posts. I agree 3 months is a long time with what we know and don't know about COVID.
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Old 11-05-2020, 07:06 PM
 
9,329 posts, read 4,162,667 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Roselvr View Post
Thanks for your posts. I agree 3 months is a long time with what we know and don't know about COVID.
I did hesitate to post it, since I saw it had been awhile, and the information and protocol changes - but I read it over and I thought there was much that was still useful. And I appreciate the calm approach.
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Old 11-06-2020, 08:49 AM
 
Location: NJ
23,918 posts, read 33,748,406 times
Reputation: 30833
Quote:
Originally Posted by Clarallel View Post
I did hesitate to post it, since I saw it had been awhile, and the information and protocol changes - but I read it over and I thought there was much that was still useful. And I appreciate the calm approach.
As I said in my original rep, there was useful info in it.
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