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Harry Truman's election as President represented the fifth consecutive election won by the same political party. Except for the period following the Civil War, no political party has pulled off such a long string of victories. Truman had a lot going against him when he sought election as President. Here are just a few of the challenges he faced:
1. The left wing of the democrats was running their own candidate as President. This was former Vice President Henry Wallace who ran on the "Progressive Party ticket".
2. The right wing of the democrats split from the party during its convention in Philadelphia. This included delegates from the deep South who opposed the democratic party platform on civil rights. This wing of the party called themselves "the Dixiecrats" and nominated Strom Thurmond as their Presidential candidate.
3. The Republicans picked a "centrist candidate" who was designed to appeal to moderates. They chose Governor Thomas E. Dewey of New York. Dewey had a distinguished record fighting organized crime in New York City and as Governor of his state.
4. All the polls said Truman would lose. This can create a momentum of its own as contributors stop giving money to a campaign and as your own supporters become so demoralized they fail to vote.
The year was 1948 and the GOP policies of the 1920s had cause a great depression 16-19 years prior. Truman convinced people towards the end that Dewey would cause another great depression if elected.
I bet given have disastrous his second term was,Truman sometimes wished he had lost.
As for the election,he did several things. 1.Blame the "Do Nothing"Congress for all the problems. Never mind the Democrats had totally controlled Washington from 1933-47.
2.Desegregated the military. The black vote back then was Democratic,but not by a massive margin. Dewey was strong for civil rights,much stronger than FDR or Truman. However,by desegregating the military he dramatically increased his black % and black turnout.
3.Recognized israel. Again,the Jewish vote would have went to him in any event,but this helped,especially in states like Pennsylvania,New York,New Jersey and Illinois.
4.Unions. The Republicans had passed Taft-Hartley over Truman's veto. While unions again would ahve voted for him,this made it unanimous.
5.Farmers. Today farmers are overwhelmingly Republican in their voting,at least for potus. Romney has something like a 70-25% edge with farmers(they are less than 2 % of the population. Back then they were much more signifigant group. Dewey had said he would cut their beloved farm programs. Truman reminded them of all the things FDR had done for them.
Anyways,the farm vote again was crucial in Iowa,Minnesota,Wisconsin and a few other states.
3. The Republicans picked a "centrist candidate" who was designed to appeal to moderates. They chose Governor Thomas E. Dewey of New York. Dewey had a distinguished record fighting organized crime in New York City and as Governor of his state.
(see John Kerry, and perhaps in the future Mit Romney) stiff upper lip sort of fellow who was easily categorized as being an elitist snob who ran up against feisty personable fellows who appeared to be just common folks (well it was certainly true in Turman's case).
4. All the polls said Truman would lose. This can create a momentum of its own as contributors stop giving money to a campaign and as your own supporters become so demoralized they fail to vote.
The polls were just flat out wrong and Roper, Crossley, and Gallup all wrongly committed the sin of believing that polls were predictive overtime rather than snap shots of the public's mood at a specific point. They stopped polling two weeks before the campaign. Further the pollsters had used quota sampling rather than probability sampling which skewed their results to higher income and more educated voters i.e., Dewey supporters. The pollsters made even riskier assumptions without any statistical foundation, like assuming that undecided voters would vote in the same pattern as those who were decided, and for not distinguishing between likely voters and those who were just registered (Mosteller et al. 1949).
The black vote back then was Democratic,but not by a massive margin. Dewey was strong for civil rights,much stronger than FDR or Truman. However,by desegregating the military he dramatically increased his black % and black turnout.
Are you speaking in terms of percentage of votes cast or percentage of African Americans supporting the Democratic Party?
Truman received 77% of the black vote and marked the first time that majority of African American voters identified themselves as being Democrats. 1948 also marked the beginning in the surge of non-white voter participation which in an election that only experienced a 53% turnout could have made a large impact especially in largely held Democratic cities.
Are you speaking in terms of percentage of votes cast or percentage of African Americans supporting the Democratic Party?
Truman received 77% of the black vote and marked the first time that majority of African American voters identified themselves as being Democrats. 1948 also marked the beginning in the surge of non-white voter participation which in an election that only experienced a 53% turnout could have made a large impact especially in largely held Democratic cities.
They might not have identified as Democrats,but since 1932 had been voting Democrat. Franted those were all three landslide elections.
They might not have identified as Democrats,but since 1932 had been voting Democrat. Franted those were all three landslide elections.
Not only because of FDR's landslide, but also because Hoover neglected black concerns and, in an early version of the "southern strategy", embraced racists in hope that the South would go Republican (it didn't work). That is how a demographic group that had been strongly Republican (in the North and West, as southern blacks could not vote due to Jim Crow) became strongly Democratic. And black America would never cast the majority of its votes for a Republican again after Eisenhower in 1956 (the last time this has happened to date, and the only time post-1948)
The transition of American Jews from Republican to Democratic had already happened, in large part due to Eastern European Jewish immigrants and their kids identifying with the Democrats as opposed to American Jews whose ancestors had come from Germany identifying with the Republicans. (They had identified as Republicans since Lincoln.) As Eastern European Jews began to outnumber established American Jews in the overall electorate, American Jews became overwhelmingly Dem.
The answer, Majoun, was right there in your 4th statement. The polls were, very obviously, wrong. Whenever you refer to political experts, that word should be put in quotation marks. "Experts." Because they can take polls until they turn blue in the face, but they never actually know how the people are going to vote. (See? In civics class, we were taught all about the system of checks and balances. People often lie in polls...which balances the predictions of the "experts"!)
Not only because of FDR's landslide, but also because Hoover neglected black concerns and, in an early version of the "southern strategy", embraced racists in hope that the South would go Republican (it didn't work). That is how a demographic group that had been strongly Republican (in the North and West, as southern blacks could not vote due to Jim Crow) became strongly Democratic. And black America would never cast the majority of its votes for a Republican again after Eisenhower in 1956 (the last time this has happened to date, and the only time post-1948)
The transition of American Jews from Republican to Democratic had already happened, in large part due to Eastern European Jewish immigrants and their kids identifying with the Democrats as opposed to American Jews whose ancestors had come from Germany identifying with the Republicans. (They had identified as Republicans since Lincoln.) As Eastern European Jews began to outnumber established American Jews in the overall electorate, American Jews became overwhelmingly Dem.
I don't actually think Hoover embraced racists. He won southern votes because his opponent in 1928 was Al Smith. Actually it was Smith's campaign that was more racial,his southern surrogates attackedd Hoover for having a meeting with a black woman. Many blacks in 1932 actually stayed with Hoover,but by 1936 they were solidly Democrat. Most of that is not because of race,FDR never was an open advocate,but economics. FDR was never a champion of equal rights,publicly,and even opposed anti-lynching legislation. Some of his strongest backers were hard segregationists like Jimmy Byrnes,Pat Harrison,Joe Robinson etc. Getting back to 1948,many Dems were afraid of Henry Wallace siphoning off votes too.
As for American Jews,many Democrats in 1948 feared that a sizeable number would vote for Henry Wallace,who's radical views many shared.
Truman campaigned his behind off! Dewey played it too cool!
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