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What if Franz Ferdinand is not assassinated in Sarajevo in 1914 and World War I breaks out in 1916 or in 1917 instead? Specifically, I am talking about a scenario where Austro-Hungarian Emperor Franz Joseph passes away and has Franz Ferdinand succeed him, only to have the Hungarians attempt to secede from the Austro-Hungarian Empire due to the fact that Franz Ferdinand wants to re-structure the Austro-Hungarian Empire and to weaken Hungarian power and influence within his empire. Obviously Franz Ferdinand and his friend, Kaiser Wilhelm II of Germany, will not tolerate a Hungarian secession; thus, they attempt to militarily prevent Hungary from seceding. In turn, Hungary appeals to Russia for military assistance (after all, to whom else exactly can Hungary realistically turn to?), which Russian Tsar Nicholas II provides due to his desire to split up the Austro-Hungarian Empire (which is Russia's enemy and rival, especially in the Balkans). Afterwards, the alliance system is activated (as in real life after FF's assassination) and World War I breaks out in 1916 or in 1917.
How exactly will World War I turn out in this scenario (as in what will be its final outcome, what will the post-WWI peace terms be, et cetera)?
The reason that I chose this scenario was because it might be the latest time when World War I with an alliance system similar to that in real life could have broken out. After all, Germany believed that after 1916 or 1917, the Schlieffen Plan (which Germany falsely believed could provide it with a quick victory) will be obsolete due to the completion of the Russian Great Military Program, and thus, Germany might have been (very) unwilling to go to war after 1916 or 1917 without a different alliance system being in place in Europe.
Thoughts on this?
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Also, for reference, here is what will (possibly) benefit the Entente and the Central Powers in this scenario's WWI in comparison to real life's WWI:
For the Entente:
-Russia's Great Military Program will either be completed or almost be completed before World War I breaks out
-France's military might also very well be stronger as well due to the results of the "Three Year Law" of 1913 becoming apparent before World War I breaks out
-The Ottoman Empire might remain neutral
-Hungary will be on the side of the Entente
For the Central Powers:
-Britain might remain neutral and/or send less ground troops into continental Europe due to the possible need for Britain to send some troops to deal with the (very) troublesome situation in Ireland as well as due to possible British concerns that Russia (due to its increasing military power) is becoming more and more of a threat to the European balance of power; also, if Britain never enters WWI in this scenario, then the U.S. probably never enters WWI in this scenario as well
-Helmuth von Moltke the Younger might pass away before World War I breaks out in this scenario, which could mean that there could be a more competent Chief of the German General Staff (perhaps Erich von Falkenhayn) by the time that World War I breaks out in this scenario (which could have some implications on German strategy during World War I in this scenario)
Russia would have been far slower in coming to Hungary's aid if it came at all. Russia saw itself as the Big Brother (forget "1984") of the Slavic Family and obligated to protect its little Slavic brothers and sisters when others picked on them. Thus Russia came to Serbia's aid. But Russia had no such obligation to Hungary, and Franz Ferdinand was elevating the Slavs in the Austrian Empire. And then there was Germany to take into consideration. True, there would be advantages to helping Hungary, but would it be worth the risk? Might it not be better to come to Austria's assistance? It would have been similar to the way Russia allied itself with Germany in devouring Poland a couple of decades later. Russia would get about half of Hungary and advance it's frontiers a litter further into Europe and acquire a physical boundary with Serbia. At a future date they could absorb Croatia and Bosnia--and that would give the Russians the most prized treasure of all: warm water ports open the year round. A Navy that could sail at will all over the world was the key to greatness and Russia would finally have attained the ports necessary to make that happen.
1. Russia would have been far slower in coming to Hungary's aid if it came at all. Russia saw itself as the Big Brother (forget "1984") of the Slavic Family and obligated to protect its little Slavic brothers and sisters when others picked on them. Thus Russia came to Serbia's aid. But Russia had no such obligation to Hungary,
2. and Franz Ferdinand was elevating the Slavs in the Austrian Empire.
3. And then there was Germany to take into consideration.
4. True, there would be advantages to helping Hungary, but would it be worth the risk?
5. Might it not be better to come to Austria's assistance?
6. It would have been similar to the way Russia allied itself with Germany in devouring Poland a couple of decades later. Russia would get about half of Hungary and advance it's frontiers a litter further into Europe and acquire a physical boundary with Serbia.
7. At a future date they could absorb Croatia and Bosnia--and that would give the Russians the most prized treasure of all: warm water ports open the year round. A Navy that could sail at will all over the world was the key to greatness and Russia would finally have attained the ports necessary to make that happen.
1. I am assuming that Russia would have forced or coerced Hungary to agree to large autonomy or independence for its Slavic-majority areas in exchange for Russian assistance; while Hungary might not like this, it probably wouldn't have much of a choice if it would have desired to maintain its independence.
2. Yes, but Austria-Hungary was still a rival of Russia (such as in the Balkans), as well as an ally of Germany.
Also, it is worth noting that absolutist* Imperial Russia was willing to ally with democratic, republican France against its fellow autocratic monarchies in Germany and in Austria-Hungary despite the fact that Imperial Russia probably detested democracy and republicanism. Thus, there is a precedent for Russia doing something which it might consider to be distasteful in order to advance its (perceived) national interests.
*Before 1905-1906, that is.
3. Yes, but Russia would also have France as its ally and its military would have been more (perhaps much more) prepared for battle in 1916 and in 1917 (in this scenario) than it was in 1914 in real life.
4. Yes, it would probably be worth the risk for the reasons which I stated in #1.
5. Probably not, unless perhaps Austria abandons its alliance with Germany (which is probably unlikely to happen due to Kaiser Wilhelm II and Franz Ferdinand being good friends, et cetera).
6. But why exactly should Russia acquire half of Hungary when it can acquire all of Hungary as a Russian puppet state (which is essentially what Hungary is going to be if it wants to maintain its independence)?
7. But Russia can have its ally Serbia annex these areas right after World War I if Russia and its allies (France, Serbia, perhaps Italy, et cetera) are victorious in World War I in this scenario. Thus, going to war to in defense of Hungary and winning afterwards might still provide Russia with these benefits, considering that I would think that Serbia would be willing to let Russian ships use its ports.
Theories are nice if there is nothing current to talk about. What if this or what if that can be thrown around till we become blue in the face. Not to be downer here as I was born 14 yrs after the US entered WW1 and far as I'm concerned a waste of many lives. Most of you were born way after me then again a if a Thesis is on the agenda Please have at it.
I am not sure Germany nor Russia gets involved in what would essentially be an internal problem to the Austrian-Hungarian Empire. My guess is that any uprising in Hungary would have initially been put down pretty easily by the Austrian military.
I am not sure Germany nor Russia gets involved in what would essentially be an internal problem to the Austrian-Hungarian Empire. My guess is that any uprising in Hungary would have initially been put down pretty easily by the Austrian military.
In regards to Germany, Germany probably gets involved if Austria can't crush this Hungarian uprising on its own. After all, Germany would not have wanted its main ally to be split in two.
In regards to Russia, Russia probably gets involved if Hungary requests Russian assistance due to its desire to ensure that Austria-Hungary (its rival and enemy) permanently remains split in two and due to the opportunity for it (Russia) to acquire Hungary as a puppet state (since that is essentially what Hungary is going to be) in the event that Russia and its allies win this war. After all, having Hungary as a Russian puppet state will probably strengthen the position of Russia and its allies in the Balkans relative to the position of Germany and Austria there.
Nobody cares or is interested. WW1 started in 1914 while the US did not enter until 1917 and then it all ended on NOV 11th 1918 now called Veterans day which will be this coming Tuesday.
Nobody cares or is interested. WW1 started in 1914 while the US did not enter until 1917 and then it all ended on NOV 11th 1918 now called Veterans day which will be this coming Tuesday.
The upcoming Veterans Day observation makes this thread relevant.
Also, today is the date that Adolf Hitler tried to overthrow the Weimar Republic at a beer hall in 1923.
Perhaps even more significant, it is the 25th anniversary of the Berlin Wall coming down.
Actually the Thread TITLE is INCORRECT as to the Dates of 1916 and 1917 being when the War broke out.
I would ask where was you when WW1 (1914-1918) broke out and also where were you on Dec 7th 1941. (I was in school) and where were you during WW11 (1941-1945) (I was in uniform in 1945) and where were you during the Korea War (1950-53) (I was in Combat in North Korea)...relevant or not guessing is just that guessing.
Maybe a discussion of past History from living people would be more interesting then conjecture or a what if this and what if that would have made any difference on peoples lives today.
Things would have been very different for me as my mother was born outside of Budapest Hungary 1909.
In College I took a course of "European History Past and Present" ask me what I remember that was important...very little.
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