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While we do lack a globally impacting war consuming millions of lives a year, sometimes the parallels of 1910-1920 to 2010-2020 are astounding.
Several large entrepreneurs worked hard to create modern conveniences that make them ludicrously rich while many common people struggled to get by.
Accusations of price fixing and monopolization among key industries is blamed for decreased quality of life.
Attempts and successes at passes laws to try to stem the tide of immigrants bringing criminals, contra-ban, and anarchy to our country.
Riots, strikes, and public protests to object to political positions that begin widespread panic about communist or socialist ideals.
A global pandemic kills millions of people in rich and poor countries' alike.
Cultural wars promoted unabashed nationalism and a return to fundamental values that create increased tensions among religious and political factions.
A significant movement to counteract the increasing liberalization of American leads to the rise of numerous violent conservative groups.
A significant portion of the voting electorate finds access to the ballot comes with severe limitations in exercising their right.
A change in life experience and available technologies prompted a huge migration of population from one living space to another.
Many striking similarities to these events despite being 100 years part. Looking at the past as prologue, are we heading towards another great depression and global war?
We're not significantly worse off now more than any other time, recent and/or a hundred years ago.
It's just the media who is overdrive and running off the rails in promoting hysteria and worry, for their own sales and promotion. That's the only thing different now. And that's with media from any end of the spectrum; they're all engaged in the same mischief. Strife and unrest sells, and many are buying. I'm not though. You have to keep your head above and out of the pollution.
Not saying we were/are worse off then or now. Media was similarly hysterical then as now, just look at any satire from the era. Though they lacked the mediums for distribution that they have now.
I'm simply saying that it quite ironic that we regularly hear how people who don't know history are doomed to repeat it, yet here we are with many similar parallels that I venture many would not have bothered to look at because it didn't occur in their lifetime.
I am reading a series of books called Our Times that was written by Mark Sullivan from 1925-1935 that covers the era from 1900 to 1925. Its certainly a different view on some significant portions of American history that were written at a time when a majority of the principles involved in the history could be accessed first hand and the memory was still fresh and in some cases, painful to be recalled.
I have always considered the Strauss-Howe Generational Theory to be as valid as the Prophecies of Nostradamus.
Strauss and Howe put together a four-cycle model that they stretched over British and American historical events and then tried to use this model to predict the future. It's analogous to attempting to predict future stock market performance by compiling some sort of model from past stock market events.
There's a reason why investment pitches always include the phrase 'past performance is not indicative of future results' (or some such term). The same sort of phrase is applicable to the Strauss-Howe Generational Theory.
I have always considered the Strauss-Howe Generational Theory to be as valid as the Prophecies of Nostradamus.
Strauss and Howe put together a four-cycle model that they stretched over British and American historical events and then tried to use this model to predict the future. It's analogous to attempting to predict future stock market performance by compiling some sort of model from past stock market events.
There's a reason why investment pitches always include the phrase 'past performance is not indicative of future results' (or some such term). The same sort of phrase is applicable to the Strauss-Howe Generational Theory.
I understand what you are saying and anticipated a response like yours. Whoo-ee-oo.
No, it is not predictive in my viewpoint, particularly in something as multifactored as finances. But in analyzing human behavior it seems a fair model. In this theory the group development model, when it evolves as an effective way of moving generations forward, currently is divided into stages labeled, Forming, Storming, Norming and Performing. And finally ends in Adjourning.
I think this analysis comes from the business world but something similar has been applied in the field of human behavior that seems to be applicable in interpreting the flow of the generations.
To put it in the simplest of terms, an idea or movement is initiated and gathers popularity, there is resistance to the movement, depending on the outcome of that resistance the idea is either adopted and progress is made or rejected and the movement dies or rests.
One theme in history that can be traced through most of the examples in the OP is the action that takes place when a group perceives that its privileged status is being threatened or diminished by others. That is part of human nature and collective awareness that comes from that and, of course, it will repeat itself over and over.
You can call it the "OMG Effect".
"OMG, the (migrants, blacks, women, Muslims, commies, government, others) are threatening our (jobs, religion, language, privilege, rights, culture) so we have to (riot, protest, get weapons, attack, pass laws, boycott, declare war, lynch, mobilize militias, move) to keep what we have and so rightly deserve." Often in history it is new found powers or status or advances that are quickly threatened by a rival group that triggers the response. None of this has to be rational or true, only widely perceived. It is like picking from a menu: Soup or salad? Fries or chips? Ranch or Blue Cheese? Commies or migrants? Jobs or language? Riot or laws? A great deal of historical events conform to this pattern.
No, it is not predictive in my viewpoint, particularly in something as multifactored as finances. But in analyzing human behavior it seems a fair model. In this theory the group development model, when it evolves as an effective way of moving generations forward, currently is divided into stages labeled, Forming, Storming, Norming and Performing. And finally ends in Adjourning.
I think this analysis comes from the business world but something similar has been applied in the field of human behavior that seems to be applicable in interpreting the flow of the generations.
First, please keep in mind that this is my opinion, which was formed by my current knowledge of history and my experiences.
What you're describing with the Forming/Storming/Norming/Performing concept is Bruce Tuckman's stages of group development, which he defined back in 1965. I know about this because at one point I was put into the position of being a scrum master for an agile software project that was in the middle of developing a new software system. At the start of the project the IT department head decided to use the Tuckman method to build the agile team...except that he didn't clue me in until a month into my position that he was using the method or that such a method even existed. Once I was brought up to speed, I tried following along, but it seemed to me that we spent more time forming and storming than anything else. Let's just say that I wasn't impressed with the Tuckman method.
I don't believe that Tuckman's stages of group development and the Strauss-Howe theory are similar at all, as Tuckman is describing the creation, evolution, and disposition of small groups that form to complete specific and limited projects, while Strauss-Howe is attempting to be a general unified theory of Anglo American history, starting with 1400's England, jumping to 1750's British North America, and continuing through US history to present and future time.
As an aside, I find it curious that you see a difference between finances and human behavior, as economics is simply one form of human behavior.
Quote:
To put it in the simplest of terms, an idea or movement is initiated and gathers popularity, there is resistance to the movement, depending on the outcome of that resistance the idea is either adopted and progress is made or rejected and the movement dies or rests.
The above statement is something that I am in agreement with. I've always thought that new schools of thought, new political movements arise from opposition to the status quo. IMO, Classic Liberalism grew out of opposition to Clericalism and monarchy, socialism grew out of opposition to laisse faire capitalism, and late 19th century progressivism grew out of opposition to both socialism and laisse faire capitalism.
However, your statement above isn't the Strauss-Howe Generational Theory. Strauss-Howe establishes a rough 80 year cycle of events (4 generations, 20 years per generation), and claims that this cycle will continue into the future, while either ignoring those events in the past where their 80 year cycle simply doesn't work or modifying their theory to fit those troublesome historical cases.
We're not significantly worse off now more than any other time, recent and/or a hundred years ago.
First of all, that wasn't the question, was it? So I'm not sure what it even has to do with the first post.
But assuming that it does, how do you even define the terms that frame your vague statement? What makes any society worse off, or better off, or the same? How do you quantify the term accurately enough to support your statement?
And then, once having quantified it, how would you tie that in to the points raised in the OP?
While we do lack a globally impacting war consuming millions of lives a year, sometimes the parallels of 1910-1920 to 2010-2020 are astounding.
Several large entrepreneurs worked hard to create modern conveniences that make them ludicrously rich while many common people struggled to get by.
Accusations of price fixing and monopolization among key industries is blamed for decreased quality of life.
Attempts and successes at passes laws to try to stem the tide of immigrants bringing criminals, contra-ban, and anarchy to our country.
Riots, strikes, and public protests to object to political positions that begin widespread panic about communist or socialist ideals.
A global pandemic kills millions of people in rich and poor countries' alike.
Cultural wars promoted unabashed nationalism and a return to fundamental values that create increased tensions among religious and political factions.
A significant movement to counteract the increasing liberalization of American leads to the rise of numerous violent conservative groups.
A significant portion of the voting electorate finds access to the ballot comes with severe limitations in exercising their right.
A change in life experience and available technologies prompted a huge migration of population from one living space to another.
Many striking similarities to these events despite being 100 years part. Looking at the past as prologue, are we heading towards another great depression and global war?
History has a way of repeating its self. We are in great need of a price correction in the USA. Everything is completely unaffordable (housing, transportation, gas, food) and this needs to cool back down.
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