Question about Master Planned Communities and Property Value... (Houston, Spring: for sale, rent)

[WannaBBurly]

Quick backstory, soon to be relocating back to Houston after being in South Louisiana for 2.5 years. We previously lived in Spring Trails near the Hardy toll road at the bottom of Montgomery County. We got hammered when we sold the house, but that was late 2010 so I think everybody who sold then did.

Considering my new position will consist mostly of visiting clients in the energy corridor or downtown, I don't really think we'll move back to the north side of town. I've been looking in the Katy/Richmond/Fulshear area mainly for the schools (3 children; 6, 2.5, 6 mos) and new development.

Since I'm looking in this area, there seems to be a plethora of MPC out there. The rule of thumb I've heard is you usually/always want to be on the lower end of the home prices in your neighborhood since the more expensive houses will tend to bring your property value up, right? Well my question is, does that still apply in these MPC where all of the houses are grouped by price in these smaller subdivisions within the MPC? In other words, the streets will have 200k houses next to 200k houses and the 700k houses will be with other 700k houses on their own street/loop/subdivision. So how much influence is there really on one vs the other? I could understand if the development was small, but as large as these places are, I just have to wonder how much influence there is...

Just a quick look on HAR to see the current prices for sale (these are just a few MPC I came up with off the top of my head, there are undoubtedly more.) I'm looking for 4-5 bed houses around 300k.

Aliana - 69 listings, $525k to $225k
Cross Creek Ranch - first 100 listings, $849k to $360k, lowest listing at $230k
Cardiff Ranch - 19 listings, $463k to $290k
Lakes of Bella Terra - 75 listings, $1.13M to $187k
Pine Mill Ranch - 62 listings, $529k to $169k
Long Meadow Farms - 58 listings, $507k to $156k
Firethorne - first 100 listings, $700k to $205k, lowest listing at $170k
Churchill Farms - 21 listings, $482k to $215k
Lakemont - 69 listings, $418k to $130k
Waterside Estates - 29 listings, $500k to $160k
Westheimer Lakes (no designation of North vs South) - 94 listings, $352k to $130k

I know there is a lot more to it than this; ammenities, proximity to major roads, different parts of MPC being zoned to different schools, etc.

Looking at the numbers above, should I go by the rule of thumb and see where $300k puts me in the ranges above, and then start with the communities where I'm on the low end, or does it really make that much difference considering other things that go into it?

Like everyone else, I want something that will possibly gain, but at least (hopefully) retain its value with good schools in a safe area, blah blah blah...

All comments and questions are welcome, thanks for your time.

[ToyYot]

Originally Posted by WannaBBurly

Like everyone else, I want something that will possibly gain, but at least (hopefully) retain its value with good schools in a safe area, blah blah blah...

Sorry not to answer your question but...

It seems most people don't want to hear this but if you really want to gain or at least hold value spend you money on location, not age. I'd put my $300k into Green Trials without a doubt.


A new house devalues as soon as you drive it off the lot.

[RPS13]

A house is not an investment, it's a utility (i.e. you need a place to live, so you buy or rent a house).

As for older homes - location is important, but you're also buying a home that needs more maintenance and generally has higher utility costs all things being equal.

It is difficult to sell a resale in an area where someone can walk right down the road and get a new house, but they're still selling out in that area very briskly (for how long, who knows?).


To address the OP's concern over the old adage of "buy the cheaper house in the neighborhood," I've got my doubts as to whether that's going to lead to any significant difference in home appreciation/price increase over the years. That $200k house is still surrounded by similar houses, and has the furnishings, square footage, and lot size typical of a $200k house. Updating the furnishings typically won't raise your homes value much around those immediately surrounding it. You might get burned buying the most expensive house on the most expensive lot and putting in the most expensive furnishings in the neighborhood, but that again is more down to the homes in your general area tending to create an upper ceiling as to what people will reasonably pay for a house.

On the other side, builders tend to raise prices throughout a neighborhood's build out, then offer some deals at the very end to get out if sales aren't very brisk. So the phase of the neighborhood's buildout probably affects your short to medium term equity prospects more than market forces.


So to sum it up, look at your house as somewhere your family is going to live, and choose the neighborhood you feel most comfortable with. I think in general you're looking at a small delta between the appreciation of a $300k house in any of those neighborhoods you mentioned.


As for me, we just recently built out in Churchill Farms. We liked the smaller community, and at the time were really pleased with what features were included and the price point when building in the 70' section. Lots have been selling like crazy there, and it's been open less than a year, so others are obviously finding it attractive as well.

[Sross]

I would add that to get the best deal in the area you choose is to buy an inventory home. You can usually get a lot of those "options or upgrades" without the cost and the overall cost is much lower than if you would build out the same house.

[Cbink]

Originally Posted by Sross

I would add that to get the best deal in the area you choose is to buy an inventory home. You can usually get a lot of those "options or upgrades" without the cost and the overall cost is much lower than if you would build out the same house.

+1
We did this and got a stellar deal. I didn't realize how good a deal until I saw how much more one of my neighbors in the subdivision paid for the same model. We're on a much bigger lot and have similar if not more upgrades. We were fortunate though in that the spec house was what we were looking for and we didn't need to get them to change anything - all the things we wanted to add/change we have done (are doing) ourselves at lower cost. Things like changing carpet in the downstairs bedrooms to hardwood, adding an outdoor kitchen etc.

[Bily Lovec]

I just bought what you're looking for out in CCR, it was out of my price range on HAR but when looked at it, they happily dealed it down into my range.

CCR is having a big shindig this month on weekends, you may want to come out and look around at the model homes.

buddy just closed out in churchhill farms also, his builder really screwed up his house.

[RPS13]

Originally Posted by Bily Lovec

I just bought what you're looking for out in CCR, it was out of my price range on HAR but when looked at it, they happily dealed it down into my range.

CCR is having a big shindig this month on weekends, you may want to come out and look around at the model homes.

buddy just closed out in churchhill farms also, his builder really screwed up his house.

Which builder? Taylor Morrison or Beazer?

[usc619]

Originally Posted by BDFP

Sorry not to answer your question but...

It seems most people don't want to hear this but if you really want to gain or at least hold value spend you money on location, not age. I'd put my $300k into Green Trials without a doubt.


A new house devalues as soon as you drive it off the lot.

Right on the money, but it's tough getting a home in that price range without a bidding war ( green trails). My wife and I have been looking lol

[Failed Engineer]

Bidding wars have started in Green Trails already? Wow. I'm starting to consider out there, if we can't get into SBISD West Memorial. Currently, HAR shows only 7/24 listings in Green Trails as active, all others pending so it is indicative of a good sellers market.

[Bily Lovec]

Originally Posted by RPS13

Which builder? Taylor Morrison or Beazer?

Beazer.

its a beautiful house and he has a fantastic lot, but they went thru 3 foremen during construction and they flat screwed up a lot of his upgrades, some they refused to correct.