The Houston Housing Market will Crash (2013, homes, prices)

[Mr. Krinkle]

I think the market will continue to grow in 2014 due to the shortage of housing and the surplus of people moving to Houston. I think it will taper off a bit in 2015, but certainly not bust.

I bought in 2009 when everyone was scared to buy. People looked at me like I was crazy, but it turned out to be a very good decision.

[buckeroo]

Originally Posted by DJboutit

Not here in Houston has not crashed in the last 10 yrs even when most of the country housing market crashed

All the more reason to think that it will crash here

[jerbear30]

When I look on my HAR app at the prices of houses in the places where I want to live, I realize that I can't afford anything except a total junker. So my opinion is biased, but I honestly think there just aren't that many people who can afford to pay the prices that houses are going for. I mean, you may be able to get a loan somehow for a 400-500k home on the off chance that nothing really comes up in the next 10 years financially, but then life has this way of tending to happen. I do predict that the next ten years will be interesting in Houston. Even though now my wife and I have good jobs and hers is tenure-track, I don't really count on anything here. It just feels like there is this vast potential for economic chaos under the surface here.

[Jack Lance]

Originally Posted by p0opstlnksal0t

This is no flame sir. Im curious if people think this housing boom Houston is seeing will see a slump/downturn.

You titled the thread "The Houston Housing Market will Crash" this is a declarative and predictive statement not inquisitive.

But to answer the question in this post, Of course it will slow down. Houston set an all time record last year with over 73k single family homes sold according to an article in the Chronicle. Inventory is at an all time low, which also should tell you there will not be a crash anytime in the near future.

[dd1153]

Lol

Does this article really say builders are cutting prices. Have you been in a model home lately? Prices are going up weekly in some areas.

[vwgto]

I know folks will say that the real estate crash in the 80's was due to too much reliance on Oil and Gas, and Houston is not like that anymore, but it sure seems to be the basis for most of today's frothy growth.

[dd1153]

Real estate will always cycle.. however the average cycle time between a peak boom and the bottom of a bust is 14-17 years. The hard part is measuring what _IS_ the bottom, and what _IS_ the top?

Hedge funds, fortune 500 companies, corporate and private home builders, and developers are sinking BILLIONS into this city alone. This does not happen without a ton of research. I'll go with their combined hypothesis about the boom over this guys blog.

[Jack Lance]

Originally Posted by dd1153

Lol

Does this article really say builders are cutting prices. Have you been in a model home lately? Prices are going up weekly in some areas.

The median price for homes in the Houston market peaked in June 2013 @ 192K ending the year in Dec. @ 188k


Houston ended the year setting all sorts of records for single-family home sales. Here are the some highlights:

Highest median sales price for a December.

• The median price rose to $188,500 in December, up 10.9% over the Dec. 2012 median of $170,000. The median peaked at $192,410 in June.

Highest average sales price for a December.

• The average price rose to $265,017, up 10.3% from $240,326 in December of 2012.

Lowest inventory on record.

2013 a banner year for Houston home sales - Prime Property

[dd1153]

Just because the median peaked in June 2013 does not mean the market slumped to end the year in Dec. Most people will list and sell their homes during summer months. It could have been higher priced properties listed in the summer time vs lower priced / homes that did not sell in the winter months.

As you stated, I think the true measure is year over year median pricing to measure specific points in the market.

[Chanteuse d' Opéra]

This thread needs to be closed *rollseyes*