Still booming? (Houston, Center, Canadian: foreclose, rent, townhouses)

[djfaninfo]

Houston is still booming!

[Firefly in sweet land]

Originally Posted by djfaninfo

Houston is still booming!

Might be. We will know at least some of it after August 2015, looking at, how many new families settled in and how hot/cold the real estate market is.

[SouthernBoy205]

Again, if cheryjohns, the most credible realtor on the Houston sub-forum, post in this thread with some bad or subpar news about the real estate market, then we will know Houston is not booming the way Houston booms.

[Oildog]

SB you realize that would not be a prudent business move for her, right?

[AliefPropOwner]

Houston Purchasing Managers Index in January slipped below the 50-point threshold to 48.9. Below 50 signals economic contraction.

[haudi]

Anecdotal but I spoke to the sales rep for the homebuilder I bought from last year, and he said that business is still booming out here in Cypress. They are opening a new section this weekend, and already have several sales appointments for lots booked starting Saturday morning. There will also be a price increase this coming week along with a reduction in incentives. They've almost sold out the remaining lots in the current sections in the last couple of months. So, that's some good news.

[LocalPlanner]

Originally Posted by haudi

Anecdotal but I spoke to the sales rep for the homebuilder I bought from last year, and he said that business is still booming out here in Cypress. They are opening a new section this weekend, and already have several sales appointments for lots booked starting Saturday morning. There will also be a price increase this coming week along with a reduction in incentives. They've almost sold out the remaining lots in the current sections in the last couple of months. So, that's some good news.

The suburban single family market, at least in "favored" areas with good school reputations, should remain fairly healthy in 2015 because they still need to work off the supply/demand imbalance remaining from the boom. If oil prices don't start back up significantly and quickly (and it doesn't look like they will), expect that market to flatten or decline (more so in volume than prices) in 2016.

[mshhouston]

Sorry to disappoint those hoping for a housing crash because of the softness in the crude oil market, but this is not the 1980's anymore and an oil bust devastating Houston again to that extent is impossible today.

Houston has diversified as has the Oil&Gas business. Those asking what other industries Houston has, let me help you out:

1) Medical/Healthcare- as many have pointed out, the Medical Center is a huge employer. Not just the Medical Center, though, the healthcare industry is pervasive throughout the US economy and in Houston it is not just in the Medical Center. The population is much older now with a lot more treatment options and a lot more bureaucracy to go along with it.

2) Transportation- The Port of Houston is the largest port by gross tonnage imported in the United States and keeps getting bigger. In fact, once the Panama Canal widens in a couple years the Port of Houston is going to grow even more. In 1980 the Port was big, but mostly handling Petroleum related products. Today, it is Petroleum, Containers, Dry Bulk, Automobiles and all sorts of other things. Also, there is many times over more international trade today than in the eighties. And of course, Houston is a railroad town, and that business keeps booming. Latin American trade is exponentially larger than the 1980's. Shipping in general is huge here independent of the Port. There are ships brokers, Energy majors have their shipping businesses here, there are freight forwarders, surveyors, maritime lawyers and any number of other high paying jobs.

3) Commodity Trading- Houston is the center of the world when it comes to trading energy and that business makes more money when prices are volatile. The big Oil & Gas guys participate in the business, but so do commodity trading firms like Vitol, Mercuria and Trafigura. Also investment banks trade energy commodities out of Houston and JP Morgan actually headquarters all of their global commodities business out of Houston whether it is energy or not. These are all very high paying jobs, by the way, not just the Traders but the thousands of professionals that support them.

4) NASA- Yeah, not what it once was, but still employees several thousand high paid Engineers and professionals in the Clear Lake area.

5) Petrochemicals- This business traditionally does better with the price of oil low and is significantly larger than it was in the 1980's. Houston is the place for this business and by the way, those jobs pay way above the median.

6) Oil&Gas- The E&P piece gets beaten down when the price of oil drops, but the midstream and downstream sectors don't usually. The midstream business was almost in it's infancy still in the early 1980's, today it is a huge industry and centered around Houston. Terminals, pipelines, etc are still making money and those are well paid jobs. Refineries have a lot of Engineers and with refining capacity in the US lagging behind the additional production of the past few years those jobs are going nowhere.

I am sure I am forgetting a significant piece of the local economy or two, but I think you get the idea, there is a lot more to the Houston economy today than back in the 1980's.

A couple other factors to consider:

1) In the early 1980's the oil bust was accompanied by a very deep and painful recession nationally which added greatly to the pain here in Houston. With the added diversity in the economy today, though even a vicious one two punch like that wouldn't have the same effect.

2) The aging work force- The Oil&Gas business in particular is extremely top heavy with older workers. The layoffs you see are going to push the old guys out the door into retirement and make room for the cheaper, younger people in the business. But, guess who are buying all of these expensive homes? It's not the 67 year old Engineer or the Land Man who has been in the business since 1970, it's the younger generation in the business, buying the big house to raise their kids. These people are generally going to be the ones keeping their jobs despite the layoffs. They may not feel too confident about dropping $1Million+ on a house in Oak Forest until Oil rebounds, but their house isn't getting foreclosed upon, either.

So, I can see a flat housing market for a couple of years, but short of a big hike in interest rate, I wouldn't count on getting something for 65 cents on the dollar. Except maybe in Alief.

[p0opstlnksal0t]

The downturn of 2008-2009 would disagree. The O&G downturn wreaked havoc on the housing market. We may not see a bust. Like the 80s but we may very well see a housing downturn worse than what we saw back in 08-09. Font fool yourselves. Houston still lives and breathes O&G

Originally Posted by mshhouston

Sorry to disappoint those hoping for a housing crash because of the softness in the crude oil market,this is not the 1980's anymore and an oil bust devastating Houston again to that extent is impossible today.

Houston has diversified as has the Oil&Gas business. Those asking what other industries Houston has, let me help you out:

1) Medical/Healthcare- as many have pointed out, the Medical Center is a huge employer. Not just the Medical Center, though, the healthcare industry is pervasive throughout the US economy and in Houston it is not just in the Medical Center. The population is much older now with a lot more treatment options and a lot more bureaucracy to go along with it.

2) Transportation- The Port of Houston is the largest port by gross tonnage imported in the United States and keeps getting bigger. In fact, once the Panama Canal widens in a couple years the Port of Houston is going to grow even more. In 1980 the Port was big, but mostly handling Petroleum related products. Today, it is Petroleum, Containers, Dry Bulk, Automobiles and all sorts of other things. Also, there is many times over more international trade today than in the eighties. And of course, Houston is a railroad town, and that business keeps booming. Latin American trade is exponentially larger than the 1980's. Shipping in general is huge here independent of the Port. There are ships brokers, Energy majors have their shipping businesses here, there are freight forwarders, surveyors, maritime lawyers and any number of other high paying jobs.

3) Commodity Trading- Houston is the center of the world when it comes to trading energy and that business makes more money when prices are volatile. The big Oil & Gas guys participate in the business, but so do commodity trading firms like Vitol, Mercuria and Trafigura. Also investment banks trade energy commodities out of Houston and JP Morgan actually headquarters all of their global commodities business out of Houston whether it is energy or not. These are all very high paying jobs, by the way, not just the Traders but the thousands of professionals that support them.

4) NASA- Yeah, not what it once was, but still employees several thousand high paid Engineers and professionals in the Clear Lake area.

5) Petrochemicals- This business traditionally does better with the price of oil low and is significantly larger than it was in the 1980's. Houston is the place for this business and by the way, those jobs pay way above the median.

6) Oil&Gas- The E&P piece gets beaten down when the price of oil drops, but the midstream and downstream sectors don't usually. The midstream business was almost in it's infancy still in the early 1980's, today it is a huge industry and centered around Houston. Terminals, pipelines, etc are still making money and those are well paid jobs. Refineries have a lot of Engineers and with refining capacity in the US lagging behind the additional production of the past few years those jobs are going nowhere.

I am sure I am forgetting a significant piece of the local economy or two, but I think you get the idea, there is a lot more to the Houston economy today than back in the 1980's.

A couple other factors to consider:

1) In the early 1980's the oil bust was accompanied by a very deep and painful recession nationally which added greatly to the pain here in Houston. With the added diversity in the economy today, though even a vicious one two punch like that wouldn't have the same effect.

2) The aging work force- The Oil&Gas business in particular is extremely top heavy with older workers. The layoffs you see are going to push the old guys out the door into retirement and make room for the cheaper, younger people in the business. But, guess who are buying all of these expensive homes? It's not the 67 year old Engineer or the Land Man who has been in the business since 1970, it's the younger generation in the business, buying the big house to raise their kids. These people are generally going to be the ones keeping their jobs despite the layoffs. They may not feel too confident about dropping $1Million+ on a house in Oak Forest until Oil rebounds, but their house isn't getting foreclosed upon, either.

So, I can see a flat housing market for a couple of years, but short of a big hike in interest rate, I wouldn't count on getting something for 65 cents on the dollar. Except maybe in Alief.

[ToyYot]

Count yourselves lucky, here's what a real bust looks like:

Existing home sales fell 35 per cent in Calgary, 24 per cent in Saskatoon and 22 per cent in Edmonton compared with a year earlier. It represented the third straight month of falling sales in Alberta’s major cities, with sales down 44 per cent in Calgary since October.

The level of unsold inventory sitting on the market in Calgary has nearly doubled in recent months, while sales have fallen 40 per cent, as homeowners grapple with the threat of layoffs, said Gary MacLean of Re/Max Real Estate Central. While the city is used to booms and busts in its real estate market, Mr. MacLean says the swiftness of the crash in oil prices caught the market by surprise this time. “It was like a train wreck,” he said. “One morning the train is going by and the next it’s off the track.”

Home sales in Prairies derailed by crude