The foreclosure wave that's going to hit Houston (Dallas, Austin: sale, rental)

[swopoe]

There is an article in the chron about foreclosure auctions being up 67% over last year. Maybe that is it...

Houston foreclosure postings soared pre-Harvey - Houston Chronicle

Aren't number of foreclosure auctions and total number of foreclosures different things?

[gwarnecke]

I think the effect will be ambiguous.

People who walk away from their homes will still need a place to live. If their credit is shot, they'll have to rent. If there's a demand for rental properties, flooded homes will be bought and rehabbed by investors who then rent them out (and probably sell in 5-10 years when Harvey is a distant memory).

I think the flood might actually accelerate gentrification in certain parts of town. For example, Nottingham Forest is a very desirable neighborhood that, pre-Harvey, had lots of rehabbed 1960s homes and a very small number of new builds. Now that flooded homes are being listed for lot value, expect to see an uptick in new builds with elevated slabs. Especially if the gradual oil price recovery continues.

[Jack Lance]

Originally Posted by swopoe

There is an article in the chron about foreclosure auctions being up 67% over last year. Maybe that is it...

Houston foreclosure postings soared pre-Harvey - Houston Chronicle

Aren't number of foreclosure auctions and total number of foreclosures different things?

Was that a 67% increase over a very low rate to begin with ? Here's an article from April of 2017 that shows a drop in foreclosure rates of 52%. so if you have 100 and you drop 52% that's gives you 48 right so then if you increase 67% from 48 gives you about 80. So even though you have had a 67% increase you are still below where you were before when you had 100. See what I mean. So does that 67% increase get us to the national average or above the average or are we still below the national average. The Dallas Morning News doesn't attempt to put those figures into perspective do they ?

"Houston shows healthy drop in foreclosure rate


The rate of home foreclosures in Houston was 52 percent below the average pre-recession rate, according to a quarterly report released Thursday by ATTOM Data Solutions.

That gives Houston among the healthiest drops in foreclosure rates since the pre-recession period of 2006 and 2007; later, regulations were tightened on mortgage lending. "

Houston shows healthy drop in foreclosure rate - Houston Chronicle

[cheryjohns]

Originally Posted by Jack Lance

Was that a 67% increase over a very low rate to begin with ? Here's an article from April of 2017 that shows a drop in foreclosure rates of 52%. so if you have 100 and you drop 52% that's gives you 48 right so then if you increase 67% from 48 gives you about 80. So even though you have had a 67% increase you are still below where you were before when you had 100. See what I mean. So does that 67% increase get us to the national average or above the average or are we still below the national average. The Dallas Morning News doesn't attempt to put those figures into perspective do they ?

"Houston shows healthy drop in foreclosure rate


The rate of home foreclosures in Houston was 52 percent below the average pre-recession rate, according to a quarterly report released Thursday by ATTOM Data Solutions.

That gives Houston among the healthiest drops in foreclosure rates since the pre-recession period of 2006 and 2007; later, regulations were tightened on mortgage lending. "

Houston shows healthy drop in foreclosure rate - Houston Chronicle

Awwww, Jack, you always spoil the fun.

Back when I got the Houston Chronicle, I used to laugh at the headlines.

One year HAR reported that the number of homes sold that year was about 120 less than the year before. 120 less, out of thousands. The headline used the word "plummeted". Yes, plummeted. OMG - WE ARE ALL GOING TO LIVE UNDER A BRIDGE AND DIE! THE SKY IS FALLING!!!

The next year, it was up about 100. The headline read that SALES HAVE SOARED. Soared, out of thousands and thousands. OMG WE ARE ALL GOING TO GET RICH BECAUSE PRICES WILL SKYROCKET!

OP, when did you move to Sugar Land?

[bubbyK]

Originally Posted by Jack Lance

Was that a 67% increase over a very low rate to begin with ? Here's an article from April of 2017 that shows a drop in foreclosure rates of 52%. so if you have 100 and you drop 52% that's gives you 48 right so then if you increase 67% from 48 gives you about 80. So even though you have had a 67% increase you are still below where you were before when you had 100. See what I mean. So does that 67% increase get us to the national average or above the average or are we still below the national average. The Dallas Morning News doesn't attempt to put those figures into perspective do they ?

"Houston shows healthy drop in foreclosure rate


The rate of home foreclosures in Houston was 52 percent below the average pre-recession rate, according to a quarterly report released Thursday by ATTOM Data Solutions.

That gives Houston among the healthiest drops in foreclosure rates since the pre-recession period of 2006 and 2007; later, regulations were tightened on mortgage lending. "

Houston shows healthy drop in foreclosure rate - Houston Chronicle

First, you asked the question if that was over a very low rate to begin with? Low is a relative term. Low compared to what? So let's take a quick look at the three big Texas cities. According to HomeFacts:

Austin
Foreclosures: 102
Homes For Sale: 1,158

Dallas
Foreclosures: 586
Homes For Sale: 2,374

Houston
Foreclosures: 1,416
Homes For Sale: 2,138

That doesn't look low to me.

Secondly, your logic is flawed regarding percentages. Your numbers are only applicable if the article was comparing April 2017 to Aug 2017 foreclosures. Instead seeing as how ATTOM data solutions likely reports monthly. It's possible that April to May was a 10% increase, May to June was a 10% increase, June to July was another 10% increase and once summer ended Aug was a 67% increase.

The important thing to note is that there is approximately 240% more foreclosures currently in Houston vs Dallas.

[bubbyK]

Originally Posted by cheryjohns

Awwww, Jack, you always spoil the fun.

Back when I got the Houston Chronicle, I used to laugh at the headlines.

One year HAR reported that the number of homes sold that year was about 120 less than the year before. 120 less, out of thousands. The headline used the word "plummeted". Yes, plummeted. OMG - WE ARE ALL GOING TO LIVE UNDER A BRIDGE AND DIE! THE SKY IS FALLING!!!

The next year, it was up about 100. The headline read that SALES HAVE SOARED. Soared, out of thousands and thousands. OMG WE ARE ALL GOING TO GET RICH BECAUSE PRICES WILL SKYROCKET!

OP, when did you move to Sugar Land?

the 80s.

[cheryjohns]

Originally Posted by bubbyK

First, you asked the question if that was over a very low rate to begin with? Low is a relative term. Low compared to what? So let's take a quick look at the three big Texas cities. According to HomeFacts:

Austin
Foreclosures: 102
Homes For Sale: 1,158

Dallas
Foreclosures: 586
Homes For Sale: 2,374

Houston
Foreclosures: 1,416
Homes For Sale: 2,138

That doesn't look low to me.

Secondly, your logic is flawed regarding percentages. Your numbers are only applicable if the article was comparing April 2017 to Aug 2017 foreclosures. Instead seeing as how ATTOM data solutions likely reports monthly. It's possible that April to May was a 10% increase, May to June was a 10% increase, June to July was another 10% increase and once summer ended Aug was a 67% increase.

The important thing to note is that there is approximately 240% more foreclosures currently in Houston vs Dallas.

Homes for sale is closer to 32,000, not just a little over 2,000. That's off by a whole lot. Also sounds very low for Dallas. You have to understand that I represent a lot of investors. If foreclosures were shooting through the roof, they would be very excited. They are not even twitching or giggling.

Originally Posted by bubbyK

the 80s.

Then you will will understand my confusion, when it appears you lived in Plano about 3 months ago.

//www.city-data.com/forum/48660995-post6.html

[Jack Lance]

Originally Posted by bubbyK

First, you asked the question if that was over a very low rate to begin with? Low is a relative term. Low compared to what? So let's take a quick look at the three big Texas cities. According to HomeFacts:

Austin
Foreclosures: 102
Homes For Sale: 1,158

Dallas
Foreclosures: 586
Homes For Sale: 2,374

Houston
Foreclosures: 1,416
Homes For Sale: 2,138

That doesn't look low to me.

Secondly, your logic is flawed regarding percentages. Your numbers are only applicable if the article was comparing April 2017 to Aug 2017 foreclosures. Instead seeing as how ATTOM data solutions likely reports monthly. It's possible that April to May was a 10% increase, May to June was a 10% increase, June to July was another 10% increase and once summer ended Aug was a 67% increase.

The important thing to note is that there is approximately 240% more foreclosures currently in Houston vs Dallas.

The important thing for you are comparisons with Dallas. "Waves of foreclosures" are relative to national norms not cherry picked local markets.

As far as my "flawed" percentages ,I was merely posting examples of how percentages can work, it's up to you to prove the thesis of your own OP. Also you are going to have to post the link to the "Homefacts" data that you post. Your credibility is questionable enough to begin with, without us taking unlinked data as fact. I would trust Cherys empirical data first.

Face it ,Your OP was based of a Dallas Morning News hit piece and your anti- Houston bias just couldn't resist running with it to the Houston forum where it appears you haven't posted in almost 2 years until now. Maybe if "we're" lucky you will not have another reason to post again for at least that same amount of time.

Originally Posted by cheryjohns

Homes for sale is closer to 32,000, not just a little over 2,000. That's off by a whole lot. Also sounds very low for Dallas. You have to understand that I represent a lot of investors. If foreclosures were shooting through the roof, they would be very excited. They are not even twitching or giggling.

Then you will will understand my confusion, when it appears you lived in Plano about 3 months ago.

//www.city-data.com/forum/48660995-post6.html

You know Chery Einstein proved that you cannot be in two places at the same time a long time ago...

[bubbyK]

Originally Posted by Jack Lance

The important thing for you are comparisons with Dallas. "Waves of foreclosures" are relative to national norms not cherry picked local markets.

As far as my "flawed" percentages ,I was merely posting examples of how percentages can work, it's up to you to prove the thesis of your own OP. Also you are going to have to post the link to the "Homefacts" data that you post. Your credibility is questionable enough to begin with, without us taking unlinked data as fact. I would trust Cherys empirical data first.

Face it ,Your OP was based of a Dallas Morning News hit piece and your anti- Houston bias just couldn't resist running with it to the Houston forum where it appears you haven't posted in almost 2 years until now. Maybe if "we're" lucky you will not have another reason to post again for at least that same amount of time.




You know Chery Einstein proved that you cannot be in two places at the same time a long time ago...

Firstly, congratulations!
You attacked your opponent's character or personal traits in an attempt to undermine their argument.
Ad hominem attacks can take the form of overtly attacking somebody, or more subtly casting doubt on their character or personal attributes as a way to discredit their argument. The result of an ad hom attack can be to undermine someone's case without actually having to engage with it. https://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/ad-hominem.

Unless you have something factual to rest upon, I think you squarely lose in this instance.

Secondly, "Homefacts" is built by ATTOM data solutions. The same data source you referenced in your Chronicle piece. https://www.attomdata.com/homefacts/.

Thirdly, I own properties in Houston, Dallas and Austin, however the bulk of my properties are here in Houston as well as my current residence. I do travel between different cities frequently, so we pay $80 for 2800 sq ft in Dallas, $80 in Houston for various sizes from 2000-3800 sq ft and $110 in Austin for 3200 sq ft for inquiring minds.

Fourthly, I would contend that waves of foreclosures, just as housing booms are limited to local markets and local events, but State and National numbers can be used as points of reference.

Now, let's try again please. That is, unless you lack the acuity to engage on an logical level. In which case, I'll gladly take the win and move on.

[TexasRedneck]

Guess it helps to do a little research first....

Houston Real Estate Statistics and Foreclosure Trends Summary