Relocating from Las Vegas (Birmingham: tornadoes, land, area)

[rock90]

Originally Posted by LCTMadison

Highway 31 over to the Mooresville Road area up to East Limestone Road.....north of Nick Davis across north Harvest (that is where Anderson Hills is, just north of Sparkman High). That seems to be the predominant path in this area.

While that seems to be the predominant tornado path, there's no statistical evidence for such miniature Tornado Alleys. If you throw a bunch of events on a map randomly, there tend to be clusters:

Thoughts on the Space-Time Distribution of Tornadoes

This means Anderson Hills may have just been unluckier than Hampton Cove over the years, though I can tell you where I'd rather be if a big outbreak were expected!

[NoleFanHSV]

A different set of Data

Tornado History Project: Madison County, Alabama

This is from 1951 to 4/11/2011.

This shows that NW Huntsville has been pretty immune to a tornado. It shows that there have been a significant number of Tornadoes between North of Capshaw, south of Harvest, and east of county line during that period. This is a 60 year period. Another 60 years could show something else, but in the last 60 years, it doesn't appear that locally the data is that "random".

[catfishin2000]

Originally Posted by NoleFanHSV

A different set of Data

Tornado History Project: Madison County, Alabama

This is from 1951 to 4/11/2011.

This shows that NW Huntsville has been pretty immune to a tornado. It shows that there have been a significant number of Tornadoes between North of Capshaw, south of Harvest, and east of county line during that period. This is a 60 year period. Another 60 years could show something else, but in the last 60 years, it doesn't appear that locally the data is that "random".

Looking at the storms on the above linked web page, I can say for a fact some of the tracks are off by quite a bit. The 1995 Anderson Hills tornado is a great example. It is several miles off.
So I wouldn't use that page in a serious discussion.

With that said, Harvest does attract some storms. We think it is the magnetic field generated by the giant alien space ship buried under Burwell Mnt.

[TN2HSV]

Originally Posted by NoleFanHSV

A different set of Data

Tornado History Project: Madison County, Alabama

This is from 1951 to 4/11/2011.

This shows that NW Huntsville has been pretty immune to a tornado. It shows that there have been a significant number of Tornadoes between North of Capshaw, south of Harvest, and east of county line during that period. This is a 60 year period. Another 60 years could show something else, but in the last 60 years, it doesn't appear that locally the data is that "random".

Interesting data. I could look at this stuff all day long.

Look at 3 F5's that have passed through Tanner. Wow.

[NoleFanHSV]

Originally Posted by catfishin2000

Looking at the storms on the above linked web page, I can say for a fact some of the tracks are off by quite a bit. The 1995 Anderson Hills tornado is a great example. It is several miles off.
So I wouldn't use that page in a serious discussion.

With that said, Harvest does attract some storms. We think it is the magnetic field generated by the giant alien space ship buried under Burwell Mnt.

It appears that they have 34.8 -86.25 as the lifting coordinates and it should be 34.9 -86.25.

Makes me wonder how many are right?

[catfishin2000]

Originally Posted by NoleFanHSV

Makes me wonder how many are right?

I think they just drew some lines that were close to sort of maybe in the right spot.

[NoleFanHSV]

Originally Posted by catfishin2000

I think they just drew some lines that were close to sort of maybe in the right spot.

Well, I went to a few others using their touch down and lifting coordinates and they were correct. I sent them an email to find out more about how they were doing it.

[catfishin2000]

Originally Posted by NoleFanHSV

Well, I went to a few others using their touch down and lifting coordinates and they were correct. I sent them an email to find out more about how they were doing it.

Check out the big 4/27/11 tornado. That site has it tracking south of Burwell Mt, when in reality it went North of there. I am not using the coordinates, I just know the area and where these things went.

[rock90]

Originally Posted by NoleFanHSV

This shows that NW Huntsville has been pretty immune to a tornado. It shows that there have been a significant number of Tornadoes between North of Capshaw, south of Harvest, and east of county line during that period. This is a 60 year period. Another 60 years could show something else, but in the last 60 years, it doesn't appear that locally the data is that "random".

I'd like to see some statistical backing for the conclusion that there have been a "significant" number of tornadoes in the region described. There are more lines in some places and less in others. Do homeowners near the intersection of Mastin Lake & Pulaski get a discount on tornado insurance because no tornado has been closer than a mile or two in 60 years? Do Anderson Hills residents get charged more? Insurance companies are incentivized to figure this stuff out, so that would be one way to check the numbers. They sure do charge more if you live in a potential flood plain.

And while 60 years sounds like a lot of time (and data), tornadoes are statistically rare events even in a 60 year period. Quoting from the other article: "But with the information we have now, it's not possible to say with any confidence that existing clusters and voids in tornado occurrences are anything more than random statistical fluctuations."

Everyone meet back here in 2075 and we'll go over the numbers again.

[NoleFanHSV]

Originally Posted by rock90

I'd like to see some statistical backing for the conclusion that there have been a "significant" number of tornadoes in the region described. There are more lines in some places and less in others. Do homeowners near the intersection of Mastin Lake & Pulaski get a discount on tornado insurance because no tornado has been closer than a mile or two in 60 years? Do Anderson Hills residents get charged more? Insurance companies are incentivized to figure this stuff out, so that would be one way to check the numbers. They sure do charge more if you live in a potential flood plain.

And while 60 years sounds like a lot of time (and data), tornadoes are statistically rare events even in a 60 year period. Quoting from the other article: "But with the information we have now, it's not possible to say with any confidence that existing clusters and voids in tornado occurrences are anything more than random statistical fluctuations."

Everyone meet back here in 2075 and we'll go over the numbers again.

People only live in house for only so many years though. Its quite possible Harvest won't see another tornado for 50 years or even 100 years. Problem is, there isn't any current data showing that. North of Capshaw, south of Harvest area has had 10 tornadoes in the last 60 or so years, 8 of those in the 30 years, and 6 since 1995. While on the large scale tornadoes look random across a large area, that doesn't mean that taking a chunk of the smaller area has the same "randomness". Just take a look at Alabama. If tornadoes were random across the state, then there would be an equal number of tornadoes North of Birmingham and South of Birmingham. That is not the case though. North of Birmingham has about twice the distribution of total Tornadoes, and possibly 3 to 4 times the distribution of stronger tornadoes.

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