Airport passenger projections (Birmingham, Montgomery, Mobile: living, costs, bus)

[RocketDawg]

I ran across this report from the Alabama Department of Transportation, published in 2005 for all the airports in Alabama, from the smallest to the largest. The entire report has just about everything you'd ever want to know about airports in Alabama. It's part of the statewide transportation plan.

They have the linked tables of "Aviation Demand" at the various airports. Included are historical numbers as well as projections for 2010 and 2020. For a decent approximation we can assume 2020 projections are close to what we should have now.

Emplanement numbers given can be doubled to approximate the "total passenger" numbers that we usually see.

For Huntsville, emplanements in 2020 were projected to be 735,000 for a total passenger count of about 1.47M.

For Birmingham, emplanements in 2020 were projected to be 2.67M for a total passenger count of about 5.34M.

The projections are way high ... Huntsville would have to increase about by about 25% from current numbers to achieve the projection.

Birmingham would have to increase over 100% to achieve the projected numbers. From 1990 to 2000, B'ham had about a 50% growth, possibly due in part to Southwest coming in, and it looks like the projections assumed that kind of growth would continue.

There are similar projections for Montgomery and Mobile but I don't know what current numbers are there. At any rate, the projections for the state's two largest airports are far from accurate.

https://www.dot.state.al.us/aerweb/p...ter4Tables.pdf

[AU HSV]

Any projections from 2005 are basically useless.
Airline mergers and low cost airlines have rewritten the book.

[RocketDawg]

Originally Posted by AU HSV

Any projections from 2005 are basically useless.
Airline mergers and low cost airlines have rewritten the book.

True perhaps, but it's a current Aldot document.

[Reactionary]

IMO the report illustrates the difficulties that governments (or really anyone) has in making projections. Note that I've done analyses like these for a living (but of course with much better results). It makes me immediately distrustful of projections (see global warming, er climate change).

[Mississippi Alabama Line]

Originally Posted by RocketDawg

True perhaps, but it's a current Aldot document.

The Alabama System Plan is being updated as we speak.

10 years from now, it will be out of date as well. Those documents are composed in order to plan/fund for future infrastructure improvements. The data shown was the best there was at the time.

So, it's not a "current" document.

[RocketDawg]

Originally Posted by Mississippi Alabama Line

The Alabama System Plan is being updated as we speak.

10 years from now, it will be out of date as well. Those documents are composed in order to plan/fund for future infrastructure improvements. The data shown was the best there was at the time.

So, it's not a "current" document.

"Current" means it's still posted on the Aldot website. So it's the latest available, shall we say. If it was no longer applicable, it would be taken down (hopefully).

At any rate, those were some wildly optimistic projections. I didn't look at the rest of the document, but it's huge and covers all aspects of transportation within the state. It would be interesting to see some of the vehicular traffic count projections, and compare them with actual counts. It's probably in there somewhere.

[Mississippi Alabama Line]

Since we're talking airports:

Allegiant Air under fire after '60 Minutes' safety report - News - Northwest Florida Daily News - Fort Walton Beach, FL

Remember that when people are clamoring for low cost carriers.

[RocketDawg]

Originally Posted by Mississippi Alabama Line

Since we're talking airports:

Allegiant Air under fire after '60 Minutes' safety report - News - Northwest Florida Daily News - Fort Walton Beach, FL

Remember that when people are clamoring for low cost carriers.

Yeah, I saw that mentioned coming up on 60 Minutes last night, but forgot to watch. Wish I had recorded the program.

Air travel in general has really degenerated over the years anyway. When I first started flying for business, it was very relaxing and you got treated well. Now, it's more like riding a bus or a cattle car, even with major carriers.

[Mississippi Alabama Line]

Originally Posted by RocketDawg

Yeah, I saw that mentioned coming up on 60 Minutes last night, but forgot to watch. Wish I had recorded the program.

Air travel in general has really degenerated over the years anyway. When I first started flying for business, it was very relaxing and you got treated well. Now, it's more like riding a bus or a cattle car, even with major carriers.

I am a big proponent of general aviation. Sure it costs more, but if you get enough people together (corporations mostly are the ones who use it), you can cut that down, plus you can save a heck of a lot of time and hassle. And you often can get closer to your destination.

I project this method to grow over the coming decades. There are already some small airlines starting to take advantage of this, like Southern Airways. I don't know if the scheduled flights to GA airports have a future, seems people are moving to more ala carte stuff in general, thus the on-demand charters. I hope both succeed though.

Many people don't realize the huge advantage and benefits that general aviation airports and operations bring to their communities.

[Mississippi Alabama Line]

Originally Posted by RocketDawg

Yeah, I saw that mentioned coming up on 60 Minutes last night, but forgot to watch. Wish I had recorded the program.

Air travel in general has really degenerated over the years anyway. When I first started flying for business, it was very relaxing and you got treated well. Now, it's more like riding a bus or a cattle car, even with major carriers.

I am a big proponent of general aviation airport travel. Sure it costs more, but if you get enough people together (corporations mostly are the ones who use it), you can cut that down, plus you can save a heck of a lot of time and hassle. And you often can get closer to your destination.

I project this method to grow over the coming decades. There are already some small airlines starting to take advantage of this, like Southern Airways. I don't know if the scheduled flights to GA airports have a future, seems people are moving to more ala carte stuff in general, thus the on-demand charters. I hope both succeed though. Certain size charters do require the extra security measures, but it's nothing like TSA.