Hurricane Model Performance (average, 2014, storm, forecast)

[Cambium]

As we know, forecasts are based on models. Here's a nice site that shows you how well tropical models are doing.

Low (Invest 91L) - 6/30/2014 12Z - NHC Average Model Error Displayed on Chart


Thanks to Brad P for posting this because the new update from HWRF says Cat 1 Hurricane to hit North Carolina.

"Before you get all crazy posting HWRF solutions make sure to check its performance so far."

So it looks like that model has the highest error in intensity. So eliminate the Cat 1 scenario from it. We'll see if others follow the idea but for now you can't ignore the 14mph wind error it has.





Hope everyone understands how hard forecasting is and whats involved! You can just take 1 solution. You have to look at so many things.