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Don't you sometimes think the experts are confused?
In 2004, their original prediction was for a much-increased incidence of very powerful hurricanes. They actually hadn't predicted the horrible 2004 season, but since then they have very high numbers in their predictions. They keep decreasing that number as the season progresses.
So now they have me confused. Are we still having more then average canes? Are they predicting a lot of canes for this season? IMHO they'll really never figure it out.
2004 was a very active year in terms of landfalls...that was the year of 'Charlie', 'Frances', 'Ivan' and 'Jeanne'...2005 doesn't require any explanation. 2006 was actually relatively normal historically speaking, and last year was quite active (we got to the 'O' storm). But the last couple of years, we had few strong storms making landfall since they either weakened before hitting the US, missed the US completely, or weren't strong to begin with. So far, it looks like we might luck out again this year, since there's a pretty strong trough along the east coast which might deflect storms out to sea. But it is still too early to say if this pattern will last all summer, and anyway, it only takes one storm to make a season.
2004 was a very active year in terms of landfalls...that was the year of 'Charlie', 'Frances', 'Ivan' and 'Jeanne'...2005 doesn't require any explanation. 2006 was actually relatively normal historically speaking, and last year was quite active (we got to the 'O' storm). But the last couple of years, we had few strong storms making landfall since they either weakened before hitting the US, missed the US completely, or weren't strong to begin with. So far, it looks like we might luck out again this year, since there's a pretty strong trough along the east coast which might deflect storms out to sea. But it is still too early to say if this pattern will last all summer, and anyway, it only takes one storm to make a season.
Thanks for the explanation. That makes sense. I was wondering if the study was inspired by the '04 & '05 seasons but then lost its impact because of the subsequent seasons. But you are right in pointing out that '07 was active. Because the US got off easy I was remembering it as a quiet year.
I live in SE Florida. All of the above named storms went through my area. We were only affected by Wilma in 2005. No power, water, or phone service for a few days....and some trees down.
2006 and 2007 were pretty calm here.
I hope 2008 will be the same.
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