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Monday 31-Oct 11aEDT/AST: 95L became PTC15 this weekend, now TS Lisa. Winds 40mph(65km/h), moving W 14mph(22km/h), pressure 1003mb. Center about 175miles(285km) S of Kingston, Jamaica. TS Watch for Jamaica. Hurricane & TS Watches will likely go up for portions of Central America/Yucatán peninsula region later today.
Tues 1Nov 8aEDT Winds 45mph(75km/h), moving W 14mph(22km/h), pressure 1004mb. Looks better organized this morning. Conditions generally favorable for strengthening (some dry air nearby though). Still aiming for Belize, likely as Cat1 Hurricane.
Tues 1Nov 11aEDT Winds 60mph(95km/h), moving W 14mph(22km/h), pressure 1001mb. Storm surge 4-6ft along coast of Belize possible when comes ashore later Wednesday.
Wed 2Nov 8aEDT Winds 75mph(120km/h), moving W 15mph(24km/h), pressure 988mb. Cat1 hurricane. Air recon radar and microwave satellite imagery show what looks like an eye forming, while infrared looks fairly sloppy but does have very cold cloud tops near center indicating stronger storms. Likely strengthens until landfall. Center about 100miles(165km) ESE of Belize City.
Thurs 3Nov 5aEDT/4aCDT Winds 45mph(75m/h), moving W 10mph(17km/h), pressure 998mb. Made landfall into Belize Wednesday afternoon just S of Belize City. Several feet of surge came into Belize City and likely points North as well.
Now weakening over land, crossing from Guatemala into S Mexico. Heading for the Bay of Campeche where looks to meander around before dissipating there.
Thurs 3Nov 5pEDT/4pCDT Winds 30mph(45m/h), moving W 12mph(19km/h), pressure 1008mb. Tropical Depression now. Looks to enter Bay of Campeche late tonight.
Sat 5Nov 5aEDT/4aCDT Winds 30mph(45m/h), moving NNW 3mph(6km/h), pressure 1008mb. Wind sheared system in Bay of Campeche barely holding on. NHC says won't make it to sun down.
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