Why I think the Hispanic majority population by 2050 is to be taken with a grain of salt (green card, naturalization)
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For a total Hispanic population over 50 million, less than 1 million babies are going to be spread near equally over citizens, legal, and illegal immigrants. Legal immigration is higher than illegal immigration. Mathematically illegal aliens and their offspring are not the majority of Hispanic growth.
No, what it means is that most Americans are reproducing at replacement levels and only having kids they can afford to feed. We don't need to be reproducing at third world rates that depend on government assistance to feed their broods. We'd be a lot better off having a smaller population to fit a smaller economy. That will ensure that there are enough jobs and resources for everyone.
Whites aren't. That's why we are denuding mexico and much of central america of it's child bearing young in order to keep our economy going. Much of "old europe" is experiencing the same problems we are. Face it, malthus was wrong. You cannot have a functioning economy in an economy composed mostly of "old people" or of too many children below the age of 15. We would seem to entering a perfect storm as our baby boomers are rapidly aging and our "mostly" mexican immigrants are producing babies far out of proportion to their population. This paper is a long read but I highly recommend it.
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The most interesting and extreme cases are found for stocks. Japan, Finland, and Sweden have a dangerous combination of very low birth rates and an exploding number of retirees, giving them a strong demographic headwind, which has been much in the news lately. This work perhaps adds scientific rigor to those discussions. The results for Canada, the United States, and central Europe are mixed, with slightly negative or positive projections depending on the measure used. The European periphery, including Ireland, Portugal, Spain, and Greece, has slightly better forecasts for stock and bond returns, showing that there is hope, even in light of their recent troubles. Here, again, the emerging economies 28 A plot of the population distribution for these two countries (not reported here) reveals some very interesting properties. Germany was more affected by World War II than any of his European neighbors. Thus, while it will experience similar developments in age groups 0–39, the structural changes in ages 40+ will be significantly different. Singapore has experienced very intense migration, which gives it one of the fastest changing demographic structures in the world across all ages. 17 present mixed results. Latin America (including Mexico) and Asia fare relatively well, with mostly positive returns. Central Sub-Saharan Africa has too many young people and too few saving-age adults for stock markets in these countries to fare well, while Paraguay has too many old people and too few savers. Finally, the BRIC countries seem to have a bright future ahead of them, at least for the next 10 years.
5. Conclusion
This paper studies the effect of demographic changes on three measures of great importance for countries all over the world: real per capita PPP-adjusted GDP growth, stock market excess returns, and bond market excess returns. We use an econometric technique that has not been used for this purpose; it allows us to use all the available information in population profiles by fitting a polynomial curve on the regression coefficients of demographic age groups. Our main regressions use a large panel spanning over 60 years and 22 countries (and approximately 200 countries in some special cases). By force-fitting a polynomial to our demographic variables, we extract surprising statistical significance with implications that align nicely with intuition. Children are not immediately helpful to GDP: they don’t contribute to it. Nor do they help stock and bond market returns in any meaningful way: their parents are likely disinvesting to pay their support. Young adults are the driving force in GDP growth; they are the sources of innovation and entrepreneurial spirit. But, they are not yet investing as they are overspending against their future human capital. Middle adults are the engine for capital markets returns; they are in their prime for income, savings, and investments. And senior citizens contribute to neither GDP growth nor stock and bond market returns, as they disinvest to buy goods and services that they no longer produce.
Are you still just counting those getting Resident Cards and naturalizing in 2009 to determine legal immigration numbers? Is it the total Hispanic growth rate in the United States, or only that of Mexicans? Does a higher percentage of one classification necessarily mean more people than a lower percentage of another classification.
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Originally Posted by chicagonut
...At Parkland Hospital in Dallas alone 70% of births in their hospital from illegal alien mothers of the Hispanic persuasion.
Whites aren't. That's why we are denuding mexico and much of central america of it's child bearing young in order to keep our economy going. Much of "old europe" is experiencing the same problems we are. Face it, malthus was wrong. You cannot have a functioning economy in an economy composed mostly of "old people" or of too many children below the age of 15. We would seem to entering a perfect storm as our baby boomers are rapidly aging and our "mostly" mexican immigrants are producing babies far out of proportion to their population. This paper is a long read but I highly recommend it.
Where is your proof that white Americans aren't reproducing enough? We have millions of Americans out of work so just what economy are you talking about since there are no jobs to even support our own citizens? When and if we need more workers or baby producers we will increase our legal immigration quotas then. Illegal Mexicans have no right to even be in this country and we sure don't need them dropping babies on our soil and tapping into our welfare system for them. How in the hell does this help our country?
Are you still just counting those getting Resident Cards and naturalizing in 2009 to determine legal immigration numbers? Is it the total Hispanic growth rate in the United States, or only that of Mexicans? Does a higher percentage of one classification necessarily mean more people than a lower percentage of another classification.
And statistics for Parkland transfer over to Hispanic births throughout the United States?...
What do you think especially here in the southwest? It ain't rocket science you know. When I read our local paper 7 or 8 out of ten babies born in our hospital have Hispanic surnames. Sure some of them are probably born from citizen Hispanics but the odds are that their statistics are along the same lines as Parkland.
I have posted that link that you are referring to about the number of legal and illegal immigrants from every ethnic group. Re-read it for clarification.
Last edited by chicagonut; 07-08-2012 at 08:27 PM..
Reason: spelling
Where is your proof that white Americans aren't reproducing enough? We have millions of Americans out of work so just what economy are you talking about since there are no jobs to even support our own citizens? When and if we need more workers or baby producers we will increase our legal immigration quotas then. Illegal Mexicans have no right to even be in this country and we sure don't need them dropping babies on our soil and tapping into our welfare system for them. How in the hell does this help our country?
He is correct in terms of white Americans not reproducing enough. No offense, but it is no secret that compared to other races, white women are known for their abundance of fertility issues. That being said, the political idiots who think that allowing masses of illiterate, poverty stricken, lawless people to flood this country is the answer to covering up their decades of financial irresponsibility and corruption need to realize that their plan is not sustainable and that they are simply excelerating the implosion of this country.
He is correct in terms of white Americans not reproducing enough. No offense, but it is no secret that compared to other races, white women are known for their abundance of fertility issues. That being said, the political idiots who think that allowing masses of illiterate, poverty stricken, lawless people to flood this country is the answer to covering up their decades of financial irresponsibility and corruption need to realize that their plan is not sustainable and that they are simply excelerating the implosion of this country.
Maybe their birthrates are down but that doesn't mean they aren't reproducing enough. What is considered to be enough? White woman don't have fertility issues they are just choosing to reproduce responsibly. I do however agree with the rest of your remarks.
Mexico has a huge drug war right now and the government is losing that war. They also have rampant corruption in their military and police force. That country is not improving by any means. If anything it is getting worse whereas most of the rest of Latin America is improving.
Whites aren't. That's why we are denuding mexico and much of central america of it's child bearing young in order to keep our economy going. Much of "old europe" is experiencing the same problems we are. Face it, malthus was wrong. You cannot have a functioning economy in an economy composed mostly of "old people" or of too many children below the age of 15. We would seem to entering a perfect storm as our baby boomers are rapidly aging and our "mostly" mexican immigrants are producing babies far out of proportion to their population. This paper is a long read but I highly recommend it.
Most of us DON'T want illegal aliens here. It's NOT the US "stealing" Mexico's people; its Mexicans coming here by their own choice and I ain't talking about just legal aliens either. Sheesh!
He is correct in terms of white Americans not reproducing enough. No offense, but it is no secret that compared to other races, white women are known for their abundance of fertility issues. That being said, the political idiots who think that allowing masses of illiterate, poverty stricken, lawless people to flood this country is the answer to covering up their decades of financial irresponsibility and corruption need to realize that their plan is not sustainable and that they are simply excelerating the implosion of this country.
Ain't just anglo white ladies; the more educated Black and Hispanic ones don't make enough kids either.
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