New Population estimates for Indiana towns and cities (Evansville: public schools, allergy)

[ColdAilment]

Originally Posted by Toxic Toast

Terre Haute won't free-fall, but it won't blow up with new growth either. It has stagnated, kind of like Evansville.

Evansville appears to still be growing, both the county and the Metro have seen fairly stable growth. It will be interesting to see if the city has stopped shedding population however.

[Toxic Toast]

Originally Posted by ColdAilment

Evansville appears to still be growing, both the county and the Metro have seen fairly stable growth. It will be interesting to see if the city has stopped shedding population however.

I get the impression that the city itself has slowed down the exodus, primarily because people who still live in the city can not afford to leave. There has not really been a rush to buy houses in the city of Evansville, not even in the "trendy" areas. In general, only Warrick County seems to be doing well in terms of population gains. Those gains are largely driven by people leaving Evansville. The only real difference between Evansville and Terre Haute that I see, is that Terre Haute does not really have a Warrick County. Most of the new "growth" in Terre Haute is within Vigo County south of the city itself. I wonder what the Vigo County/Terre Haute numbers would look like of you split the county in two along I-70.

[Serious Conversation]

Originally Posted by ColdAilment

Should a Muncie vs Anderson thread be started? I've only been through Muncie twice, never visited Anderson. Minus Ball State it seems like they face similar problems, I believe?

They're similar, very dependent on auto manufacturing and related industries.


Muncie hasn't really had a significant population decline like Anderson. Anderson has lost ~15,000 people from its peak. Anderson is part of the Indianapolis metro area - Muncie is its own metro. Anderson is much more commutable to metro Indianapolis jobs - Muncie, not so much.

[Ivory Lee Spurlock]

I read the Muncie Star newspaper on the internet a couple times a week, and it does seem like it's mostly bad news that comes from Muncie.

Just for example, it was either today or yesterday, I read the Burkie's Drive -In on West Jackson Street is for sale. It was the kinda place where car hops took your order and brought your food to your car. Back in the early 1970's, they always had the biggest and best breaded tenderloin sandwiches in Muncie. They been in business since the 1950's or 60's. I bet it's one of the oldest Muncie owned business that is still in business. I never knew Muncie before Burkie's.
I hate to see them go.

It also seems Muncie has some good things going on. There's getting to be quite a few craft beer places, and restaraunts opening downtown and around Ball State. They turned one of the oldest hotels in Downtown Muncie into a either a Hilton or a Hyatt.

The one thing that Muncie has going for it is Ball State. Ball State taking over the Muncie school district sounds like a good thing to me. Makes me wonder why nobody thought of doing that any sooner. Ball State is considered to be one of the best colleges for teachers. It would make sense that Ball State could run the Muncie school district better than the City of Muncie was running it.

Football weekends brings lots of out of towners to Muncie. It also helps that Muncie is the hub city of East Central Indiana. People go to Muncie from surrounding counties for shopping, restaraunts, entertainment, and health care and education.

That's the difference between Muncie and its peer cities of Kokomo, Marion, Anderson, New Castle and Richmond.

Muncie will be alright. Muncie is in better shape than Gary and Flint, which it often gets said in the same breath with Muncie. Muncie's population has stagnated but grown slightly since 1950. It was 58,000 in 1950 and 68,000 the latest estimate from a couple of weeks ago. Now that I think of it, 68,000 is the same population that Muncie had in 1960.

So the fact, that despite everything else, all the obstacles and factories closing, Muncie has maintained the same population for over 50 years. That is a positive sign, I do believe.

[TheTimidBlueBars]

How are the older, inner-ring Chicago suburbs like Hammond and Whiting and Merrillville doing?

[Serious Conversation]

Muncie has a lot of blight (the side that BS isn't on is rough) but none of the Rust Belt towns in central Indiana are truly dangerous.

[cdr18]

Muncie peaked in population in the 1980s at roughly 76,000. Today, it stands around 69,000. So really, not terrible in terms of population loss. It will continue to lose population though, but at some point, it will stagnate. Too many good jobs with Ball State and other major employers that locate there because of Ball State.

The inner-ring Chicago suburbs continue to lose population. Hammond alone has loss roughly 35,000 since 1980. Merrillville and Portage had loss slightly as well recently. I would attribute that to the continuation of "white flight." Although there is no proof of this, it is pretty obvious when driving through. Now, the high growth areas are Dyer, Schererville, Crown Point, St. John, etc.

If I had to break down the metro areas in terms of growth, here is what I would conclude:

1) Indianapolis metro is going to have the most population gains, probably for the existence of Indiana. No other Indiana city can compete with that. The suburbs will continue to grow. It will be interesting to see what Fishers, Carmel, Noblesville, and the other suburbs look like in 50 years. Everything is so new right now, it's hard to believe that it will be "older" neighborhoods then. The cities outside of these suburbs better be preparing now for exponential growth.

2) Louisville metro (Jeffersonville, Clarksville, New Albany) will continue to have moderate growth. Oftentimes forgot about, this area has grown moderately in the past 20 years. This will continue to happen as Louisville secures itself as a large Midwestern city with major employers.

3) Fort Wayne metro will continue to have moderate growth, as it is seen as the engine of the Northeast Indiana region. Great balance of manufacturing and health care, jobs will be plentiful. Fort Wayne will eventually start to have recognized suburbs that will experience significant growth. Leo-Cedarville and Huntertown are the two that come to mind. Growth is already filtering that way with thousands of new homes.

4) Elkhart/Goshen metro will continue to experience moderate growth. This area has a higher than normal birth rate vs. death rate, thanks to the large Amish and Hispanic families that locate here. If you look at the population growth in Elkhart County alone, it has grown from 84,000 in 1950 to 205,000 today! The county has never experienced a downward loss in population, rare for an established city in the rust belt. I think everyone knows this can be attributed to the RV industry.

5) South Bend-Mishawaka metro will continue to experience slow growth. South Bend will stay around the 105,000 mark, but Mishawaka will continue to grow moderately. Granger as well. U of ND will continue to be a major employer in the area and bring businesses this way.

6) Columbus metro will continue to grow moderately. Home to many business expansions as well as great employers. (Cummins).

7) Lafayette and Bloomington metros will continue to grow significantly. The presence of the major universities will only lead to further growth in these areas.

7) All other major metros I continue to see either stagnate or lose population besides the far Northwest Indiana suburbs and Warrick County in Southwest Indiana with the exception of some smaller metros like Seymour and Warsaw.

Losing/Stagnating Metros:

1) Terre Haute
2) Evansvillle
3) Anderson
4) Muncie
5) Kokomo
6) Richmond
7) Gary
8) Marion

[indy_317]

Originally Posted by Ivory Lee Spurlock

It also seems Muncie has some good things going on.

The one thing that Muncie has going for it is Ball State.

Football weekends brings lots of out of towners to Muncie. It also helps that Muncie is the hub city of East Central Indiana. People go to Muncie from surrounding counties for shopping, restaraunts, entertainment, and health care and education.

That's the difference between Muncie and its peer cities of Kokomo, Marion, Anderson, New Castle and Richmond.

So the fact, that despite everything else, all the obstacles and factories closing, Muncie has maintained the same population for over 50 years. That is a positive sign, I do believe.

A government subsidized industry is always good for any location. I'm not just talking about state allocation. The mere fact that the Fed subsidizes student loans, making them almost impossible to discharge ever, has allowed the higher education bubble to continue to grow. Not sure when it will pop, but if tuition doesn't stop rising year over year, eventually people will have enough and stop going away to college. Ball State is now basically the same as IU in terms of cost. Back when I was in college, there was almost a tiered system of sorts. IU/Purdue were the most costly, with Ball State, ISU, Indiana State, and Vincennes being a lower tier. At least that is how I remember it. Now it is basically $22K-$25K for most state schools if one is living on campus, with meal plan, 12-18 or so credit hours, and factoring in books and personal expenses. Vincennes still looks to be somewhat cheaper still.


If that bubble burst, Muncie would suffer. I also have a strong suspicion that social security and UAW pension money is playing a role in keeping some of these places on life-support. I also wonder how much of that money is going to bailout single parents with kids (ie: Grand kids for the SS/pension folks), dealing with trying to fix substance abuse problems either personally or with the kids/grand kids, keeping as many restaurants and shopping centers in business, etc..


The real issue isn't losing or gaining population, it really has to do with the kind of population now vs in the past. If household income is down 20% adjusted for inflation, it doesn't matter if no one left, the area still has a net lose. So we get shrinkage in the local economy with the closing down of malls, businesses, etc..

[indy_317]

Originally Posted by cdr18

1) Indianapolis metro is going to have the most population gains, probably for the existence of Indiana. No other Indiana city can compete with that. The suburbs will continue to grow. It will be interesting to see what Fishers, Carmel, Noblesville, and the other suburbs look like in 50 years. The cities outside of these suburbs better be preparing now for exponential growth.

If there is any exponential growth in the areas outside the main Indy suburbs, it will only occur along and near interstate on/off exits. The next Pendleton development, a lower to mid-tier vinyl or cement board neighborhood is locating within a mile of I-69, just like the one that was built some years back. The thing is, there has to be a breaking point with current wages, gas taxes, and the commute time.

Originally Posted by cdr18

7) Lafayette and Bloomington metros will continue to grow significantly. The presence of the major universities will only lead to further growth in these areas.

If the higher ed student loan dam breaks, it could have ramifications for college towns. Not sure if it would have a drastic affect on the community, but I do think that if large universities are forced to cut some fat, that clearly is going to resonate in the local economy. Be it wage cuts of 5% or some sort of job cuts, that is going to mean less money for spending in the local area. As long as status quo continues, I agree these areas are likely to grow.

[popcorn247]

Originally Posted by indy_317

If the higher ed student loan dam breaks, it could have ramifications for college towns. Not sure if it would have a drastic affect on the community, but I do think that if large universities are forced to cut some fat, that clearly is going to resonate in the local economy. Be it wage cuts of 5% or some sort of job cuts, that is going to mean less money for spending in the local area. As long as status quo continues, I agree these areas are likely to grow.

Purdue hasn't raised their tuition for several years.