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Old 05-30-2013, 05:29 PM
 
Location: Los Angeles, Ca
2,882 posts, read 5,908,735 times
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I think you have to look at the fundamentals. Just because X ticker symbol and Y are going down 10-15-20%, it doesn't mean they are the same. Stocks go down for different reasons.

-For example, lately I've been going through different sectors looking at charts. Did you know that the aluminum industry since 08 has just been decimated? It hasn't come back. AA, Alcoa, looks like a wounded animal. It was a $25-40 stock for much of the 2000's. Then it's gotten killed....down to $7-14.

The story here is a crash in aluminum prices. Plus a rise in Chinese/overseas aluminum production. I would put that in a category of "structural problems". Maybe very deep or permanent. I.e. what happened to GM and Ford 10 years ago.

-Similar with the shipping industry. They've gotten killed with oversupply. Weak demand since 08.

Other industrial stocks are down (oil and gas exploration), but I don't think they have deep structural problems or a big overhang of supply. Gold is down, but no one will buy gold again? Totally different.

If you're just relying on technicals for those 4 examples, I think you'll get terrible results. You could be hanging onto Alcoa for years, shipping stocks for years (those industries are hugely capital intensive), the other 2 might pop sooner. Investing is a big puzzle, recognizing a correction is just a little piece of that.
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Old 06-08-2013, 07:53 AM
 
651 posts, read 866,811 times
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technical trading a new uptrend or downtrend can occur a couple of ways. but look up tradervic 1-2-3 bottom/top or 1 2B bottom, etc.

2B bottom
2B reversal pattern

Tradervic 1-2-3 bottom reversal

Smart Money Tracker: August 2010
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