Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
to me europe looks like japan all over again. there was little action taken for years as things slowed down and things slid into recesiion.
it took years for japans recession to slide them into a deflationary spiral they just can't get out of.
i think this is only the beginning for europe and to little to late may produce very similiar spirals down in the next few years. i am no economist nor do i even take an interest in economics ..
i am just a believer in playing the cards i am dealt so at this point my cards say stay out of europe.
on the other hand we have wriiten off the earning of all energy company's earnings knocking prices down all over the place but we have not figured any offset yet of billions ( as much as 4% gdp ) going into other sectors and companys as consumers begin spending this "tax cut " money as that is just what it is the same as.
Last edited by mathjak107; 02-16-2015 at 07:35 AM..
Japan and europe are actually different in one key way. Europe is going through a sovereign debt crisis stemming from the euro while japan experienced a huge asset pricing bubble.
i don't believe it matters , all that counts is they are in recessions. how they got there isn't going to matter. but without the proactive responses that may have been needed prior to the recessions getting a foot hold they both may go down the same path.
It matters quite a bit.considering private debt has a much a greater effect on the economy. Private debt created by asset purchases by the general public doesn't magically disappear, and its very painful when it does disappear. public debt can be decreased with much less pain to the economy
as long as we remain the best house in the worst neighborhoods we have a ways to go.
hopefully by staying the course you gain more by staying then you give up had you abandoned the markets in protection.
there is no question even if we fall alot markets will eventually come back.
the only question is of course will that wait fit into your scheme of things.
in our case we are retiring and have only a two year window before we will have to refill by selling off some equities .
that is not a problem if the selling takes place after a good run up , but it can be a major hurt if it happens out of the box at retirement.
these are the days i long for my old 80-100% equity allocations and i think not having them drives me nuts when markets are rising but at this stage it would be far to hurtful to try that going into year 1 of retirement.
it would be fine to have such high equity positions after 2 or 3 years of gains as a cusion but spending down puts a different spin on things if losses are sustained early on fore that cushion is built up..
the longest it has taken to break new highs with dividends reinvested is 15 years so as long as you don't need the money with that window if you got the pucker factor just stay the course and turn off the talking heads.
those fear spreaders are responsible for losing more money for folks by leaving profits on the table then actually gets lost from markets.
Last edited by mathjak107; 02-21-2015 at 04:35 AM..
these are the days i long for my old 80-100% equity allocations and i think not having them drives me nuts when markets are rising but at this stage it would be far to hurtful to try that going into year 1 of retirement.
.......
those fear spreaders are responsible for losing more money for folks by leaving profits on the table then actually gets lost from markets.
Yup, those worst case, gloom and doomers such as Pfau, have you spooked and are costing you a lot of money. You don't need to regret not having a 100% equity portfolio. As always a moderate 50-70%, well diversified allocation wins in the long run.
I wonder if a couple of years from now you will look back and regret a very low allocation. Or regardless of the outcome do you always believe you made the right decisions in the past?
I disagree ,pfau is far from a doom and gloomer. There is a big difference between finding methods of protecting the first years of a retirement.
After the first few years pfau is a big believer in equities.
On the other hand i put bernsrein in the woosie camp.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
