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Old 03-29-2013, 09:56 AM
 
Location: TX
795 posts, read 1,391,830 times
Reputation: 786

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LOL You still haven't responded. You said 10 years - now it's 14. All you've done is manipulate the time frame to make an exception that conveniently suits you, then point and yell, "See?! It doesn't work!" ...

I have a client with some Coca-Cola stock bought in several installments from 1981-3. She has multiplied that investment over 54 times, and the dividends have funded other investments. Numbers don't lie?

See, anyone can come up with examples. But again, I didn't bring up Coke to talk about performance. Their business is what matters. You telling people bad news can wipe out a portfolio, and we should be prepared to get out at any time, is pure garbage. Coke still sells 1.7 billion servings per day whether Cyprus goes bankrupt or not.

EDIT: By the way, WM was $23 in Jan 2003. Apparently the numbers (you) do lie.
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Old 03-29-2013, 11:45 AM
 
24,409 posts, read 26,971,175 times
Reputation: 19987
People who are trying to time the market, going in and out constantly will lose over the long term. Most of them lose in the short term too. Eventually, their guessing luck will run out.
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Old 03-29-2013, 11:59 AM
 
20,728 posts, read 19,371,367 times
Reputation: 8288
Quote:
Originally Posted by OnOne View Post
Is it possible this day and age to teach yourself how to trade stocks and make a decent amount of money? I'm not talking overnight riches, but supplemental income? I've been reading a few books and tutorials on investopedia, but I'm wondering if I really invest some time, say 3-4 hours a day over the span of 6-10 months or so could I achieve this goal? Any advice is greatly appreciated!

Learning what everyone knows will keep you from losing money but little else. If you want to beat the market, it can only be something you know, otherwise everybody knows what you know.
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Old 03-29-2013, 12:13 PM
 
20,728 posts, read 19,371,367 times
Reputation: 8288
Quote:
Originally Posted by celcius View Post
LOL You still haven't responded. You said 10 years - now it's 14. All you've done is manipulate the time frame to make an exception that conveniently suits you, then point and yell, "See?! It doesn't work!" ...

I have a client with some Coca-Cola stock bought in several installments from 1981-3. She has multiplied that investment over 54 times, and the dividends have funded other investments. Numbers don't lie?

See, anyone can come up with examples. But again, I didn't bring up Coke to talk about performance. Their business is what matters. You telling people bad news can wipe out a portfolio, and we should be prepared to get out at any time, is pure garbage. Coke still sells 1.7 billion servings per day whether Cyprus goes bankrupt or not.

EDIT: By the way, WM was $23 in Jan 2003. Apparently the numbers (you) do lie.

As long as you qualify buy and hold.


Buffet , the biggest proponent of buy and hold, does not just buy anything to hold it. He buys them at the right time and then holds it.


Anyone who bought and held at the top of the Nikkei in the late 80s the NASDAQ got creamed and is never coming back.


NASDAQ Composite History Chart


So unless you qualify it buy at the right time they will find holes in the method.


It is hard to sell a long term stock you held for 10 years with triple the gains since to sell it you have to tax the tax hit just to reinvest it somewhere else. So I rarely sell.
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Old 03-29-2013, 01:53 PM
 
Location: NC
5,129 posts, read 2,598,801 times
Reputation: 2398
Quote:
Originally Posted by bmw335xi View Post
People who are trying to time the market, going in and out constantly will lose over the long term. Most of them lose in the short term too. Eventually, their guessing luck will run out.
Going to have to respectfully disagree. Many will lose, many will not. Many will be up 35% this year with the Dow/S&P up ~10%.

It depends on how much time you are willing to put into educating yourself, fixing trades (I do options) and how active (or how not active) you want to be. Not going to deny there is a luck factor involved.

Trading is not everyone.
Investing is not for everyone.

The market is big enough for both.....and others!
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Old 04-04-2013, 09:16 PM
 
Location: Los Angeles, Ca
2,883 posts, read 5,892,804 times
Reputation: 2762
I think absolutely you can do better than most investors by being self taught.

A. I would read up on all the theories, philosophies, trading strategies out there. I.e. Value investing, investing in commodities.

Read about the big investing names....Buffett, Charlie Munger (he has an excellent book, Poor Charlies Almanack), Jim Rogers (another smart one).

B. Read history!!

Look at the markets of the 60's and 70's. Few investors now do this. I bet not 1 in 50 investors with a retail brokerage account have read that Business Week cover story "The death of equities". Retirement funds then were trying to invest in diamonds, lol. Things change.

The top "experts" were predicting a flat, weak 1980's! Hard to imagine now. You'll quickly realize, the "experts" really don't have a clue about the long term.....they are barely following 2 or 3 year trends.

C. You've got to "think".

Look at apple lately. I think history is repeating itself. What's the consesus now with apple? It's different this time, they'll just keep expanding market share, it'll keep going up, etc. Hmmmm.

I think the biggest problem with the average investor...they spread themselves too thin. Trying to be an expert in everything. Can you really understand consumer products, waste management, banks.....and technology? And pharmaceuticals? Probably not.

-I think gold is a good buy on a pullback for many reasons. But gold enthusiasts are so ardent, passionate....almost religious about it. Why is that? Why do they get so mad if you attack gold? Hmmm.....maybe because they want you to buy it. A lot of psychology obviously drives the price.

You have to think about what you bring to the table as an investor. It's similar to poker, card playing. "If you can't spot the sucker in the first 10 minutes, you're the sucker"....so the saying goes. Same in investing.
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